Will there be no goal fireworks at the San Siro?
A state of emergency will prevail in Lombardy on Wednesday evening when the two Milan city rivals duel for a place in the Champions League final, just as they did in the 2002/03 season. On that occasion, the Rossoneri prevailed with a 1-1 draw after the first and second legs thanks to the away goals rule. This time, at least according to the bookmakers, the betting on AC Milan vs. Inter Milan is much more favorable for the Nerazzurri to advance.
The Nerazzurri picked up two more points than the Rossoneri in Serie A and, after a 3-2 defeat in the first leg, were able to beat AC Milan most recently in both the Suppercoppa Italiana (3-0) and the second leg of Serie A (1-0). The last time there were three wins within a season against the Diavolo was in the 1994/95 season. Even now, with AC Milan against Inter Milan, our prediction is not exactly going for an away win for the Nerazzurri.
It is noticeable that both teams set the course for the entry into the Champions League semifinals in the very first place by their defensive qualities. Only Bayern (seven) have kept more white vests than Inter Milan (six) in the current Champions League season. This is in contrast to the fact that the Rossoneri have conceded just one goal in their last six Champions League matches.
With this in mind, we expect two closed defensive performances in the first leg and thus few goals. Accordingly, we recommend betting on under 2.5 goals.
AC Milan – statistics & current form
Not Bayern or Liverpool (six each), but AC Milan has won the second most Champions League titles behind record winners Real Madrid (14) with seven overall victories. The last time the Rossoneri triumphed in the final was in the 2006/07 season.
After an eleven-year drought, the Lombards, who had somewhat dipped in the 2010s, secured the Scudetto last summer. With a gap too wide between them and new champions Napoli in the new season, the eighth handle pot would be a perfect “consolation prize” for the Diavolo.
Only one goal conceded in the last six Champions League games
While Stefano Pioli’s men noticeably turned up the heat in the last few rounds in the top flight.
In the last six Champions League games, AC Milan conceded only one goal – in the 93rd minute of the second leg against Napoli, when their progress was actually already sealed.
What is curious is that in these six games there were a total of 86 opponent shots, 27 of which were also on target for the Rossoneri. Despite an expected-goals value of 6.8, only one goal was conceded. It’s worth noting that the Lombards also had a bit of luck on their side at times.
Won four of last six home matches in CL semifinals
Nevertheless, AC Milan vs Inter Milan predictions must also take into account that the Rossoneri have always had a good hand in the Champions League, not only in the semifinals, but especially against their city rivals. Already in 2002/03, the Diavolo entered the final against the Nerazzurri. In total, they remained unbeaten in four Champions League duels with Inter (two wins, two draws).
Moreover, if the Lombards had home advantage in the Champions League semifinals, there was only one defeat from their last six home games (four wins, one draw) – a 0-1 loss to Barcelona in 2005/06, when it was also the only goal conceded for the Rossoneri in their last six Champions League home games in the semifinals.
Last matches played by AC Milan:
Series A
- 06/05/2023 – AC Milan 2 – 0 Lazio Roma
- 04/05/2023 – AC Milan 1 – 1 Cremonese
- 29/04/2023 – AS Roma 1 – 1 AC Milan
- 23/04/2023 – AC Milan 2 – 0 Lecce
Champions League Final
- 19/04/2023 – SSC Napoli 1 – 1 AC Milan
Inter Milan – statistics & current form
Inter Milan last triumphed in Serie A in 2021 and secured the Coppa Italia a year later in 2022. Another title in 2023 would suit the Nerazzurri just as well. In addition to the Coppa Italia, where they will face Fiorentina in the final on May 24, the Tifosi would certainly also like to see the trophy in Lombardy.
The Biscione will go into the first leg against their city rivals with a lot of tailwind. The Beneamata have won all of their last five competitive matches and have conceded just one goal in that period, despite facing top-class opponents in Juventus, Lazio Roma and AS Roma.
Without conceding a goal in six of the ten CL matches in 2022/23
Simone Inzaghi’s men, meanwhile, also displayed defensive qualities in the Champions League. The second leg of the quarterfinal against Benfica Lisbon was a hectic affair (final score: 3:3). However, the Nerazzurri have not conceded a goal in six of their ten Champions League matches so far in the 2022/23 season.
In addition, the Biscione have won the last two city derbies against the Rossoneri by zero in each case. With this in mind, too, the odds are swinging in the Beneamata’s direction for AC Milan vs. Inter Milan.
Only lost one of the last six CL away matches
In the premier league, moreover, the Nerazzurri presented themselves very strong away from home. The Lombards have lost only one of their last six Champions League away games (three wins, two draws), not conceding a goal in four of those six matches.
True, the Derby della Madonnina at the shared stadium is not a true away game for the Biscione. Nevertheless, the fact that only one of the last seven derbies against the Rossoneri was lost (three wins, three draws) also speaks in favor of Inter Milan.
Last matches of Inter Milan:
Series A
- 06/05/2023 – AS Roma 0 – 2 Inter Milan
- 04/05/2023 – Verona 0 – 6 Inter Milan
- 30/04/2023 – Inter Milan 3 – 1 Lazio Roma
Coppa Italia
- 27/04/2023 – Inter Milan 1 – 0 Juventus FC
Series A
- 23/04/2023 – Empoli 0 – 3 Inter Milan
AC Milan – Inter Milan Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 79 – 69 – 87
The Derby della Madonnina has been played a total of 235 times and with 87 wins, Inter Milan narrowly leads the head-to-head comparison. After a 3-2 defeat in the first leg of the 2022/23 season, the Nerazzurri first beat the Rossoneri 3-0 in the Supercoppa Italiana before also recording a 1-0 win over AC Milan in the second leg in Serie A.
AC Milan – Inter Milan tip
When it comes to AC Milan vs Inter Milan, the bookmakers’ betting odds swing slightly in the direction of the Nerazzurri, who are listed as the away team in this first leg at the shared stadium. However, it should be noted that the Rossoneri have not only never lost to Inter in the Champions League before (two wins, two draws), but have also conceded just one goal in their last six Champions League matches. Accordingly, betting on the Nerazzurri to record a win in the first leg would be daring
In view of the fact that Inter are also extremely compact defensively and have already kept a clean sheet in six of their ten Champions League matches in the 2022/23 season, we recommend betting on under 2.5 goals in the first leg for AC Milan vs Inter Milan instead.
