Despite all the criticism: BVB book their place in the round of 16 early

In the run-up to the Champions League preliminary round, Group F was already regarded as the group of death. On the first four match days, the four-team pool around German runners-up Borussia Dortmund lived up to this description. There are just three points between the leaders and the fourth-placed team. All four teams therefore still have a realistic chance of securing a place in the round of 16. BVB have the best starting position and, in a best-case scenario, could punch their ticket for the last 16 of the top flight as early as Tuesday evening

If the tip for an away win in the second leg between AC Milan and Dortmund proves correct, the Black & Yellows would no longer be displaced from one of the top two places before the final matchday. In the event of a draw or even a defeat, the trembling would continue from a German perspective. Hope for a positive result at the San Siro is primarily based on the fact that the pressure is on the shoulders of the Italians, who must play to win. Borussia could therefore produce some promising transitional moves after winning the ball

In addition, the AC Milan vs Dortmund prediction should also take into account that coach Edin Terzic’s team can approach the match from a deeper defensive position. Unlike in the Bundesliga, where BVB are usually the favorites and are forced to make the game, the focus in the top flight is on compact defensive work. This approach recently led to Gregor Kobel keeping a clean sheet three times in a row at international level. Against a Rossoneri side that has also struggled with a recent dip in form, a successful result for the visitors therefore does not seem out of the question.

AC Milan – statistics & current form

Remember back in August 2018, when a then 18-year-old Rafael Leao was on “vacation” in Dortmund and soccer Europe therefore assumed that the coveted Portuguese top talent would move from Sporting Lisbon to BVB? The current international star had his picture taken demonstratively on the “old market” in the Ruhr region’s largest city, only to announce a few days later that OSC Lille would be his new club. The “Dortmund vacation” was therefore just a PR stunt to get the entire transfer process moving. After just one year in France, the left winger moved to Milan and was named Italy’s Footballer of the Year and Serie A Player of the Season in 2021/22.

The 24-year-old is now one of the best wingers in the world, although he has ‘only’ managed four goals and four assists in 16 competitive matches this season. Most recently, the Portuguese international was out of action due to a hamstring injury. His participation in the Champions League on Tuesday evening is therefore still uncertain. It would be a serious blow for Stefano Pioli and his Rossoneri if Rafael Leao is unable to play, especially as the attack is already lagging behind its own standards this season

Milan continue to lack consistency in finishing

15 of the 21 goals scored in Serie A came in the first seven matchdays. In the last six matches at league level, only six measly goals have been scored. Two of the last three home games against Juventus and Udinese were even lost 1-0. A four-game winless streak for the Red & Blacks in the Italian top flight only ended with a lackluster 1-0 victory, which was only initiated by a converted penalty from Theo Hernandez. Third in the table, they are already six points adrift of city rivals and leaders Inter Milan.

Meanwhile, the lack of forward play can also be projected onto the top flight. Only Benfica Lisbon, who are still without points, have scored fewer goals than Giroud and Co. in the Champions League this season. After three clean sheets in the first three matches, it was only on the fourth matchday against Paris St. Germain (2:1) that they scored their first goal and their first three-pointer, which has noticeably improved their starting position in the race for the round of 16. They now need to build on their performance against the French champions, as they are currently third in Group F and only a win against BVB at the San Siro on Tuesday evening will do.

In view of the lack of efficiency in the final third in recent weeks, which is reflected in the fact that the Lombards have only scored more than one goal in three of their last nine competitive games and is underlined by the fact that they have only scored six goals in their last seven home games in all competitions, we are also taking a closer look at the odds for the Milan side to score at most one goal in the landmark clash between AC Milan and Dortmund.

Predicted line-up of AC Milan:

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

At Borussia Dortmund’s annual general meeting last Sunday, BVB boss Hans-Joachim Watzke was his usual aggressive self. First, he once again ranted against the media, which, due to the extremely negative connotations of the press, drove him to regularly check whether his favorite club was not in a relegation spot after all. However, the Borussia managing director and DFB vice-president quickly turned his attention to the future and spoke of wanting to finish the 2023 calendar year in the best possible way.

In addition to good results in the important matches at national level against Leverkusen or RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga and at VfB Stuttgart in the DFB Cup, this primarily includes surviving the winter in the most important club competition in Europe

All BVB fans are hoping for Dortmund’s premier class face

On Tuesday evening, the team of coach Edin Terzic, who has also come in for a lot of criticism in recent weeks, could secure a ticket to the last 16 in the Group of Death. The prerequisite for this would be an away win at the San Siro, which, looking at the statistics, cannot necessarily be assumed. Borussia have lost four of their last five international matches in Italy and have also suffered their only defeat so far in this group stage away to Paris St. Germain.

On the other hand, the team’s outstanding defensive performance in the top flight, which has seen them go three consecutive games without conceding a goal, gives cause for hope. Together with Inter Milan and Real Sociedad, BVB have the most stable defensive line of all 32 CL participants in terms of numbers.

This is mainly due to the fact that, unlike in the Bundesliga, the Black & Yellows have opted for a much deeper line of pressing, extremely adjusted the risk when approaching and focused on compact defending. Even at the Guiseppe Meazza Stadium, Terzic’s team will not be forced to play forward and give up space in their own depth. A draw would be a decent result from the visitors’ point of view, which is why we believe that the match will be rather low-scoring, but at the same time we could imagine that the high-quality BVB offense might even score the first goal of the match via the transition game. The odds for this match between AC Milan and Dortmund are 2.40.

Predicted Dortmund line-up:

AC Milan – Dortmund head-to-head comparison / H2H result

The teams have met a total of seven times in competitive matches. There have been three wins for Milan, two draws and two victories for Borussia. In general, AC Milan have a great record against German clubs, with only one defeat in their last 16 European home matches. However, their only defeat in 2002/03 came against the Black & Yellows. However, no goals were scored in the first leg of the current CL season. Despite numerous chances for both sides, the opponents drew 0-0

AC Milan – Dortmund betting tip

In Group F, a preliminary decision could already be made on Tuesday evening. Should Dortmund and Paris St. Germain both win their matches, they would already be certain of a place in the last 16 before the final matchday. However, while the star ensemble from the City of Love are the clear favorites in their home game against Newcastle, Borussia will have to make do with the underdog role at the San Siro. However, this need not be a bad omen, as being the underdogs also means being able to pass on the pressure to the opponent.

Currently, significantly lower odds are being offered on a home win in the AC Milan v Dortmund match. However, this assessment is subject to certain risks, as the Rossoneri have scored just six goals in their last seven competitive matches at home. Pioli’s side have also failed to score in three of their four Champions League games. To make matters worse, Rafael Leao is a doubt. Even if he does play, he is likely to be far from 100% after his injury layoff

Apart from that, BVB usually show a completely different face in the top flight than in the league. While the defense can be seen as the biggest problem on the domestic stage, the Black & Yellows have not conceded a goal in their last three games in the CL. A compact defense will once again be the recipe for Terzic’s team. We are therefore predicting that AC Milan and Dortmund will score a maximum of one goal in the first half and that Borussia will ultimately take at least one point from Milan