Will Chelsea lose again in Italy?
Group E of this year’s Champions League group stage is interesting to follow for two reasons. Firstly, this group of four includes the Austrian champions, and secondly, the group is extremely balanced after three of six match days. The four teams are separated by only two points before the start of the second round. The top match will take place at the San Stadion. The Italian champions AC Milan will welcome Chelsea.
The current league leaders in this constellation are indeed Red Bull Salzburg, who are the only team not to have suffered a defeat yet and are in first place with five points. The two favourites for the CL round of sixteen are both on four points and the direct clash on Tuesday could already result in a preliminary decision. Despite home advantage, AC Milan are considered underdogs against Chelsea according to current betting odds. A home win results in a 3.10, while the Blues’ victory is rated at a maximum of 2.37.
One reason for this clear assessment in favour of the Premier League club is certainly the first leg last week, which Chelsea won at home to Stamford Bridge with a commanding 3-0 victory. However, AC Milan have never lost two games in a row against Chelsea. Will this streak continue? We will have an answer on Tuesday from 9pm.
AC Milan – Statistics & current form
Last season, AC Milan not only had to cope with elimination from the top flight with four points, but also said goodbye to international competition completely. With regard to the championship, the lack of a double burden in the spring of 2022 was certainly an advantage and with the Scudetto win, one could still speak of a successful season. The expectation for an Italian champion, however, must be to reach the knockout stages of the Champions League.
Confidence thanks to win against the Old Lady
After a completely deserved defeat last Wednesday, AC Milan redeemed themselves with a win in the top match last weekend. Juventus Turin were the guests at their home San Siro Stadium, and the Pioli team won 2-0 to stay at the top of the table, only three points behind the Partenopei from Napoli.
In the coming weeks, easier opponents will be waiting in the championship, so the focus will now be on the top flight. As in the previous year, AC Milan have four points to their name, but now have three more games to improve their points tally. Should the home match against the Blues be won, AC Milan would actually win two CL home matches in a row in one season for the first time since the 2011/12 season.
The first home game against Dinamo Zagreb ended with a deserved 3:1 victory, which was also the first CL home win after six games without a win (three draws, three defeats). In general, the Rossoneri are considered strong at home and the squad has the quality to annoy the visitors. Between AC Milan and Chelsea, the odds for betting on the home side are quite high. Especially since the Blues don’t have good memories in Italy.
Predicted line-up of AC Milan:
Tatarusanu – Ballo-Toure, Tomori, Kalulu, Dest – Tonali, Bennacer – Leao, de Ketelaere, Krunic – Giroud
Last matches played by AC Milan:
Series A
08/10/2022 – AC Milan 2 – 0 Juventus FC
Champions League Grp. E
06/10/2022 – Chelsea FC 3 – 0 AC Milan
Series A
02/10/2022 – Empoli 1 – 3 AC Milan
19/09/2022 – AC Milan 1 – 2 SSC Napoli
Champions League Grp. E
14/09/2022 – AC Milan 3 – 1 Dinamo Zagreb
Chelsea – Statistics & current form
The above-mentioned bad memories of Italy can be explained quite easily. The last time the London side won an away game in Italy was in November 2003, when they thrashed Lazio 4-0, but there has been no victory since. Since then, Chelsea have made seven appearances, drawing only once (against Juventus Torino in 2008/09). Meanwhile, Chelsea’s last five visits to Italy have all ended in defeat. Given these statistics, there is no value in predicting 2.37 between AC Milan and Chelsea on the visitors.
Graham Potter still without defeat
For the fifth time, Tuchel’s successor Graham Potter will take his place on the bench as Chelsea coach on Tuesday night. So far, he still has the nimbus of invincibility as the Blues returned to winning ways recently after drawing their debut against Red Bull Salzburg. Chelsea have won all three of their recent competitive matches, scoring eight goals in the process.
When it comes to goals in the top flight, all eyes are on international Raheem Sterling. The Manchester City newcomer has scored 23 times in his last 30 Champions League appearances. The duel will be a special one for Blues captain Thiago Silva. Not only because it is against his former club (he was with the Rossoneri from 2012 to 2020), but because it will be his 100th game in the UEFA Champions League.
Goalkeeper Edouard Mendy should be fit again, but in his absence, Kepa Arrizabalaga has played his part and put in some strong performances. Wesley Fofana (scorer in the first leg) and N’Golo Kante, meanwhile, are definitely out and will not be an issue. Swiss Denis Zakaria, who has yet to play a minute for the Blues after his transfer, is also not an issue.
Predicted Chelsea line-up:
Kepa – Thiago Silva, Koulibaly, Chalobah – Chilwell, Loftus-Cheek, Kovacic, James – Sterling, Mount – Aubameyang
Last matches played by Chelsea:
Premier League
08/10/2022 – Chelsea FC 3 – 0 Wolverhampton
Champions League Grp. E
06/10/2022 – Chelsea FC 3 – 0 AC Milan
Premier League
01/10/2022 – Crystal Palace 1 – 2 FC Chelsea
Champions League Grp. E
15/09/2022 – Chelsea FC 1 – 1 RB Salzburg
06/09/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 1 – 0 FC Chelsea
AC Milan – Chelsea Direct comparison / H2H record
A 3:0 score suggests a clear affair – and this impression was not at all deceptive. In last week’s home match at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea were clearly superior and kept the Rossoneri away from their own goal for almost 90 minutes. In total, there were just four shots (not shots on goal!) from the Italian champions. Chelsea thus remained without defeat against the Italian top club for the fifth time in a row (two wins, three draws). The last time Chelsea lost to AC Milan was in 1966. However, the team from London has never won two games in a row against the Rossoneri.
AC Milan – Chelsea Tip
For the loser in the clash of the two group favourites, the last 16 may already be a distant memory. The clash at the San Siro Stadium on Tuesday evening is accordingly explosive. For both teams, the motto is “no losing”. However, due to Chelsea’s poor performances in Italy, there is no value in betting on the visitors in the AC Milan vs Chelsea clash.
The Chelsea squad certainly has more individual quality in its own ranks. However, they have lost all of their last five appearances in Italy. Pioli’s side gained a lot of confidence with a 2-0 win over Juventus Torino and are certainly capable of giving the Blues a run for their money at home. The bet on the home win is risky, but the odds for the AC Milan vs. Chelsea match are very interesting for the prediction DNB1.
