The winner of the NFC East duel can plan for the play-offs!

Before the season, few NFL fans would have predicted that this 15th game day duel would still have playoff relevance for both franchises. But that is exactly what the signs of the game between the Washington Commanders and New York Giants are. The bookmakers’ betting odds are clearly in favour of the home side, despite the game ending in a 20-20 draw a fortnight ago.

The NFL only recently decided – with the prospect that this match could bring a preliminary decision in the fight for the playoffs in the AFC – to move the game to the “Sunday Night” primetime slot. The divisional duel is even more explosive because both teams have the exact same win-loss record of 7-5-1. The winner could therefore almost certainly be in the postseason.

The Commanders are currently one of the most in-form teams in the league. Since matchday six, they have won six of their eight games, including inflicting their only defeat of the season so far on the Philadelphia Eagles.

If you like, the Giants are heading in exactly the opposite direction. For after seven weeks, they had six wins and a single defeat on the credit side. Since the eighth day of play, however, they have only been successful once, when they beat the Texans, currently the worst team in the league.

These opposing form curves justify the distribution of the odds we find on the markets before the duel Commanders vs. Giants.

Washington Commanders – Statistics & current form

The positive trend that Ron Rivera’s team is displaying is unmistakable. This is closely linked to quarterback Taylor Heinicke. With him – who took over the playmaker position due to the injury of Carson Wentz – the Commanders only lost once.

The offense is basically working

With the matchup coming up, it’s natural to look at the last head-to-head between the two franchises. A fortnight ago, Washington had major problems protecting Heinicke in the passing game. In all, the Giants defence brought him down five times with a loss of space. He hasn’t been sacked that many times in any of his seven appearances this season. But before the “rematch” of the Commanders vs. Giants, we dare to predict that Washington’s offensive line will again be able to act better and protect their quarterback.

If they can do that, the home side will find very good matchups in the passing game. The various pass receivers – McLaurin, Samuel, Dotson – are all good enough to do damage to opposing defenses. A fortnight ago, the three wide receivers caught a combined 19 passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns.

Rookie running back Brian Robinson was denied a touchdown in the last meeting, but he and his deputy Antonio Gibson provided a consistently dangerous running game. Now they face the fourth-worst rushing defence again, which is why a bet on another strong game by the two running backs seems logical between the Commanders and Giants.

The Washington defence, which is a top-4 unit in the NFL, is quite underestimated. On average, they allow only 310.5 yards and 19.7 points to the opponent. It is to be expected that they will once again manage to limit the visitors’ offence, as it will continue to be missing important pillars – especially in the passing game.

Key Players:
QB: Taylor Heinicke
RB: Brian Robinson Jr.
WR: Terry McLaurin
TE: Logan Thomas
K: Joey Slye

New York Giants – Statistics & current form

There are now four games without a win in the Giants schedule and in the guest game at “FedExField” on Monday night, New York’s season is at stake. Because if they lose again, Brian Daboll’s team’s playoff chances, which are currently still at 45 percent, would dwindle further.

Increasing problems in offence and defence

Last week the Giants suffered a heavy defeat against their division rivals from Philadelphia. There, the sometimes glaring weakness in the run defence became visible once again. New York allowed 253 rushing yards and 8.2 yards per play to the Eagles. That they will be similarly overrun by Washington seems out of the question, but the Commanders will certainly try to start at exactly that point.

There’s little left of the offense that worked surprisingly well at the start of the season. Running back Saquon Barkley, who already has over 1,000 rushing yards on his season resume, has averaged just 38 yards in the past four games. In comparison, his quarterback Daniel Jones was able to run for two yards more per game during this period. With 71 yards, he was even more dangerous than Barkley in the first duel with Washington. Only these runs, most of which were improvised, ensure that the offence remains unpredictable.

The passing offence has averaged only 180 yards so far. In the last three games, none of the wide receivers have recorded pass catches for at least 100 yards in a game. We rate the chances of the passing game doing better against the Commanders’ top-8 passing defense as extremely slim.

We have already gone into detail about the weaknesses of the Giants’ defence, but the truth is that in the first leg they won the duel at the line of scrimmage. However, we wouldn’t get carried away with the prediction that the Commanders and Giants will be able to do it again in this form.

Key Players:
QB: Daniel Jones
RB: Saquon Barkley
WR: Kenny Golladay
TE: Daniel Bellinger
K: Graham Gano

Washington Commanders – New York Giants Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

We’ve already covered the last head-to-head duel in depth, so let’s at least take a quick look at the long-drawn-out history. In 1932, the New York Giants and the Boston Braves, who later became the Washington Redskins, met for the first time. In total, the upcoming clash will be the 182nd meeting between the two teams. Most recently, the franchise from the “Big Apple” remained winless three times.

In these three duels, the two playmakers Taylor Heinicke and Daniel Jones have already faced each other directly. Jones is therefore still without a win against Heinicke. If this should change on the coming matchday, odds of 2.85 can be picked up between the Commanders and Giants.

Washington Commanders – New York Giants Tip

What is true for New York is equally true for Washington. The winner of this game greatly improves their chances of making the playoffs, while for the loser, their season is probably over after the regular season. That brings an immense amount of explosiveness to this duel. Overall, we see the home side as the more complete team before the match and therefore favour one bet between the Commanders and Giants, namely a win for the hosts. However, with betting odds of up to 1.47, this does not offer enough value.

In search of a recommendation that promises more value, we naturally found what we were looking for: A fortnight ago, both teams scored 20 points each and therefore we bet on both sides getting at least 15 points on the scoreboard at “FedExField”. The Commanders managed that in nine, the Giants even in 12 of their 13 appearances.

Overall, however, we – like the bookmakers – do not expect a high-scoring game. With 40.5 points, however, the over/under limit is relatively low. We can imagine various scenarios in which this limit will be reached.