Does Vegas get off to the perfect start in the series?

The Western Conference starts into its Finals and completely without German participation. Since our Golden Knights vs. Stars tip is about the sausage between Vegas and Dallas, it is also clear: Draisaitl and Graubauer are out!

However, it was a bit surprising that the Stars made it so exciting against Seattle and so we see them as the slight underdogs against Vegas. In addition, the Texans had to play one more game in both rounds – the deeper in the playoffs, the more important the freshness.

The Golden Knights, on the other hand, played all their class against the Oilers and are convincing on both sides of the field in these playoffs. The Knights have the second-best offence and the fifth-best defence in this postseason, slightly ahead of Dallas in both categories.

So for Golden Knights vs Stars, our prediction is also a Vegas opening win, which should also see some goals scored again. Vegas games have gone over the 5.5 goal mark in nine of their eleven playoff games so far

First face-off of this Game 1 of the series is at 02:30 on Saturday night in Las Vegas. The game can be watched live on Sky as well as on NHL.TV.

Vegas Golden Knights – Statistics & current form

Oops they did it again – just like in 2017/18 during their incredible Finals run or 2020/21 on the bubble, the Knights are in the Conference Finals again. With one crucial difference: this time they are considered one of the top favourites for the Stanley Cup and could pull it off.

It would be quite an achievement in only the sixth season of the franchise to be able to hold the Cup up. The Oilers around superstar McDavid have been waiting for a success since 1990. The Knights’ front office is doing a really good job in any case.

Don’t get cocky

What’s dangerous in these playoffs, though, is favourite status. The Bruins, the Avalanche and the Oilers have already paid dearly for it. Now the Golden Knights are considered the favourites in this matchup by the bookmakers and also by us.

This can be proven by the statistics alone. Vegas scores more goals than Dallas (3.73 to 3.62), but still concedes less (3.00 to 3.08) and the men from Nevada also scored three points more in the regular season.

Only the special teams need to step up a gear, although these stats are naturally in the basement after a series against the special teams power from Canada. The Knights are probably not as bad as the numbers say.

Goalie situation exciting

The Knights’ goalie situation took a surprising turn during the postseason. They started with Laurent Brossoit in the first round, but he got injured in Game 2 against the Oilers and Adin Hill had to take over.

What initially looked like a setback turned out to be a stroke of luck, as Hill is one of the top 3 goalies in the playoffs so far with a save percentage of 93.4%. Of the goalies still in the competition, he is even the No.1.

His upcoming counterpart Jake Oettinger, for example, is only at 90.3%, which should give the Knights a slight advantage at the goalie position as well. Another reason to clearly favour the odds on the Knights in Vegas vs. Dallas.

Key Players:
G: Adin Hill
D: Alec Martinez
D: Alex Pietrangelo
LW: Ivan Barbashev
C: Jack Eichel
RW: Jonathan Marchessault

Dallas Stars – Statistics & current form

The Stars are in the Conference Finals and even if this comes as a surprise to some, it is just the tip of a continuous development over the last few years. The season before last they only scored 60 points, last season 98 and this season 108.

In the end, that was only three points less than the Vegas Golden Knights, who led the West with 111. In addition, the Stars had the best +/- ratio in the entire conference in the regular season with +67.

Depth in the squad is important

So it shows again in these playoffs how important a balanced squad is for success. A McDavid and a Draisaitl are no good if the defence doesn’t play. The Stars have both. As a result, they were the only team besides the Bruins to rank in the top 7 both offensively and defensively in the Regular Season.

However, their numbers have now slumped a bit in the playoffs, especially on defence. They concede an average of 0.46 goals more than in the previous round. And their opponents, the Wild and the Kraken, were not the strongest of teams.

Dallas needs to start the series well

A strong start to the playoff series is all the more important now. Back in the East matchup, we wrote that the winner of Game 1 is 69.1% likely to advance a round. To come back from a deficit against Vegas is also an impossibility.

However, since the Stars have now had one less day of regeneration and also had to play one more game in Round 1, we see them at a slight disadvantage. So for Knights vs Stars, we have no alternative but to bet on the home team from Vegas in Game 1.

Key Players:
G: Jake Oettinger
D: Ryan Suter
D: Miro Heiskanen
LW: Jason Robertson
C: Roope Hintz
RW: Tyler Seguin

Vegas Golden Knights – Dallas Stars Direct comparison / H2H-balance

2019/2020 Both teams faced each other once before in the playoffs, back then also in the Conference Finals. In the end, the Stars prevailed clearly with 4:1 and then only had to admit defeat to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Stanley Cup Finals.

All in all, however, the record between these two teams since Vegas came into the league is an even 10:10. In this series, anything is possible and we have to weigh up from game to game who has the momentum on their side.

We currently see this with the Knights, whose 5:2 in Edmonton in Game 6 we see as a terrific push for the players. Thus, in Knights vs Stars, the odds on Vegas are very good to play, at least in Game 1. Especially since they are only considered the slight favourites and still bring good value.

Vegas Golden Knights – Dallas Stars Tip

Vegas has already shown against the Oilers in Game 1 at home how well they can start in series. The Stars, on the other hand, blew the series opener against Seattle in the round before that. Things could be similar again for both teams on Friday.

In any case, we see a bet on the Golden Knights as the best betting option for Vegas against Dallas. This could even be pushed with over points, though we’d be a little cautious there especially in a Game 1.

Betting alternatives for Game 1 are of course also available. For example, bets on a goal by Jack Eichel, who already has six goals and a total of 14 scorer points in these playoffs. In this post-season, 15.4% of his shots have found the target.