Barca aim for third CL final in a row
The Lanxess Arena has been the host venue for the Champions League Final Four in handball since the 2009/10 season. After no or a limited number of spectators were allowed to be present in Cologne in the past two years, the organisers as well as the participating teams are again looking forward to almost 20,000 fans in one of the largest halls in Germany this coming weekend.
From a German-speaking perspective, it is all the more pleasing that THW Kiel, a Bundesliga team, has made it to the final tournament. The 2020 title holders will meet last year’s winners from Catalonia in the second semi-final, who are also the hot favourites for the 2022 Champions League triumph. Consequently, lower odds are also offered on the Spanish champions in the semi-final between THW Kiel and Barcelona.
Despite this, one should by no means make the mistake of underestimating the Northern Germans. On the one hand, coach Filip Jicha can still draw on a high-quality squad despite various important absences.
On the other hand, the newly crowned runners-up from the Bundesliga already surprised in the quarter-finals against the star ensemble from Paris and even reached this Final Four somewhat unexpectedly. Before the eagerly awaited duel THW Kiel vs. Barcelona, a prediction on Niklas Landin and Co. is nevertheless associated with an increased risk.
THW Kiel – Statistics & current form
Overall, THW Kiel will be talked about as having a good season. Although they did not manage to win the Bundesliga title they were aiming for, it was still important that they finished second in the final standings behind champions Magdeburg, which, as is well known, entitles them to take part in the upcoming Champions League season. The triumph in the DHB Cup and the entry into the Final Four at international level round off a satisfactory year.
The team of coach Filip Jicha was particularly convincing in the top flight. After 14 matches in the group phase, ten of which they won, they finished second and went straight into the quarter-finals, where they eliminated Paris St. Germain, a highly rated opponent, after a first leg and a second leg. In 120 minutes of play, the North Germans scored exactly one goal more and thus qualified for the final tournament in Cologne.
Sagosen and Pekeler will be sorely missed
The current form is also very respectable, as THW have now been unbeaten for 14 competitive matches. During this period, there have been 13 victories and one draw. The last defeat, meanwhile, dates back to 13 March and is therefore already more than three months in the past. With the confidence of six consecutive victories, the most recent four by at least a seven-goal difference, they will now be looking to break down the industry leaders.
For all their form, however, it has to be said that no opponent has even come close to the calibre of the FCB. Thus, past results on Saturday evening are only wastepaper. To make matters worse, defensive specialist Hendrik Pekeler and perhaps the best back in the world at the moment, Sander Sagosen, are two absolute key players who are not available. The outsiders will therefore need a great day from world goalkeeper Landin and will also have to hope that Bilyk and his back-row colleagues will find good solutions against the Catalans’ outstanding defence.
Predicted line-up of THW Kiel:
TW: Niklas Landin
LA: Magnus Landin Jacobsen
RA: Niclas Eckberg
RL: Nikola Bilyk
RR: Harald Reinkind
RM: Miha Zarabec
KR: Patrick Wiencek
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
FC Barcelona is the measure of all things in European handball at the moment. Not only because the Catalans won the Champions League last year in a very convincing manner, but also because the deep squad is unparalleled in terms of quality. Coach Antonio Carlos Ortega, who coached Hannover-Burgdorf in the Bundesliga, can call on world-class players in all positions.
Gonzalo Perez de Vargas is the goalkeeper, and Dika Mem is clearly the most dangerous player. On the outside, the experienced Aitor Arino and Aleix Gomez have their strengths especially in the fast counter-attack. Defence specialist Ludovic Fabregas works on the circle, while the coach has several options at the back besides the aforementioned Mem. Especially the two Brazilians Langaro and Petrus have been convincing lately.
Barca aiming at defending title
Similarly to Kiel, the Blue and Reds are also in very good form. They have won 25 of their 26 competitive matches in the calendar year. In addition, there was only one draw. In the domestic league, Barca were champions with a ten-point lead and a total of only three losing points. The national cup competition also went to the industry leader, who, however, suffered one or two unexpected lapses in the Champions League group stage.
However, if we look at the performances in the two quarter-finals against the SG Flensburg-Handewitt and additionally argue with the fact that the team in almost the same constellation already won the title last year and also only failed in the final in 2020, it is absolutely understandable that lower odds are offered on a prediction in favour of the defending champions before the semi-final THW Kiel vs Barcelona. In our opinion, it is even realistic that the Ortega team will end up with a three-goal or more difference in the final.
Predicted Barcelona line-up:
TW: Gonzalo Perez de Vargas
LA: Aitor Arino
RA: Aleix Gomez
RL: Ali Zein
RR: Dika Mem
RM: Luka Cindric
KR: Ludovic Fabregas
THW Kiel – Barcelona Direct Comparison / H2H Record
The Kielers will remember the last meeting with pleasure. In the Final Four, which was not made up until December 2020 due to the pandemic, the North Germans won the title match against the Catalans with 33:28. After four defeats in a row before, THW asserted itself against Barcelona once again. It was one of only three victories in the past 14 duels between these two renowned handball clubs.
THW Kiel – Barcelona Tip
Since the Final Four of the EHF Champions League has been played at the Lanxess Arena in Cologne, there has not been a single club that has successfully defended its title. Exactly this statistic has now been taken as an opportunity by FC Barcelona to make history. The fact is that of the four remaining teams, the Catalans are considered to have the best chance of winning the overall title.
In the Spanish homeland, both national titles were won with ease and it also became clear in the CL quarter-final against Flensburg that the FCB is difficult to defeat on a “normal day”.
Despite this, THW will put everything on the line to land the surprise coup. We would have thought that the Jicha seven would be able to do so in their best line-up, but without creative player Sagosen, who is responsible for many easy goals and important assists in attack, and without defensive leader Pekeler, the task will be much more difficult. Despite the supposed home advantage in Cologne, we therefore believe that the higher quality combined with the better defence will prevail.
Against this background, we have decided to bet on the second semi-final THW Kiel vs. Barcelona, with interesting betting odds, that the Catalans will have the upper hand with at least a three-goal difference. Alternatively, it is conceivable to bet on a rather low-scoring first half, as it can be assumed that both teams will possibly have to struggle a little with nervousness at the beginning. The mark of under 29.5 goals after 30 minutes makes for a very exciting game here.
