Will the Bolts strike back right away?
The champions are reeling, but they’re far from fallen. The incredible statistic that the Bolts have not lost two play-off games in a row for 48 (!) already speaks for this. The last time this happened to them was more than three years ago.
Since then, they have marched through two complete post-seasons unperturbed, always bouncing back immediately after defeats. They already did that after Game 1 and the chances are good that they can do it again in front of their home crowd.
With these statistics in mind, the odds of the betting companies for Tampa seem very strange, as they are almost the same as those for Toronto. For bettors on the Bolts, of course, it’s a feast to be seized upon.
So for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs, our prediction is a win for the reigning double champions, who should even the series once again. In addition, the Leafs are not considered the most nerve-racking team, which we will go into a bit more detail about later.
Tampa Bay Lightning – Statistics & current form
The Tampa Bay Lightning are 1-2 in their series against Toronto, but that shouldn’t worry them much just yet. The last few years have shown that they can still come from behind to win series.
They also haven’t lost two straight playoff games since April 16, 2019. An almost unbelievable streak of 48 games now. Hardly any other team in the NHL’s long history has managed to do that.
Defence still not in championship form
For the turnaround to succeed, however, the Bolts need a little more defensive stability again. 4.33 goals conceded per game in the three games so far are, of course, far too many, given that they were among the top 6 in the league in the regular season with 2.78 goals conceded.
But in the playoffs, they are still allowing too much. In general, they don’t get their own zone defended that well yet, which can also be seen in the shots against them. 32, 34 and most recently even 36 in their own arena are far too much for normally more defensive playoff games.
Even Vasilevskiy still has room for improvement
The same goes for their goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who currently only has a save percentage of 89.0%. His counterpart Campbell has a save percentage of 92.4 %, although Vasilevskiy was considered the better one before the series.
The Latvian, like the entire defence, has to improve, but this should be possible once again in Tampa. We expect a much more focused Tampa team in Game 4, which makes the odds on the home team a worthwhile proposition in Bolts vs. Leafs.
Key Players:
G: Andrei Vasilevskiy
D: Victor Hedman
D: Jan Rutta
LW: Ondrej Palat
C: Brayden Point
RW: Nikita Kucherov
Toronto Maple Leafs – Statistics & current form
Toronto are once again on their way to winning a playoff series, something they haven’t managed since 2004. However, they still have a long way to go, regularly leading in series in recent years only to lose them.
That’s what happened in 2019 against the Bruins (leading 3-2) or last year against the Canadiens (leading 3-1), among others. They lost their last seven playoff series accordingly, five times very narrowly in a deciding game at the end.
How well do their nerves hold up?
This of course raises the question of how the players are affected by this experience, as most of them were there the previous year when there was that collapse against Montréal. We’re pretty sure that’s still in the back of all the players’ minds.
Their opponents from Tampa, on the other hand, can play more relaxed because they have often been on the other side of comebacks – the winning side. This disadvantage could now work to the Leafs’ disadvantage in the following games.
Series so far statistically even
Even though the Maple Leafs lead 2-1, all three games so far have been almost evenly matched – with slight advantages for Toronto. The Canadiens lead in shots by a narrow margin of 102:92, but have given up six more in giveaways (20:26).
If they keep this slight advantage, then something is also in it on Sunday, whereby we expect Bolts to turn up a bit more. Thus, with Tampa vs Toronto odds almost even, a bet on the home team is a little more recommended.
Key Players:
G: Jack Campbell
D: Morgan Rielly
D: Timothy Liljegren
LW: Michael Bunting
C: Auston Matthews
RW: Mitch Marner
Tampa Bay Lightning – Toronto Maple Leafs Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The Leafs now hold a 2-1 lead in this series, but the four games in the Regular Season were split fraternally at 2-2. It was noticeable, however, that the Bolts did have a slight overall edge in goals, 16-12.
Nevertheless, it is not these direct duels that make Tampa the clear favourites for Game 4, but the history. Since the Lightning haven’t lost two in a row in 48 playoff games, the question is why this should happen now in front of their home crowd.
We don’t expect it to and so see the odds on Tampa as much more promising for Lightning vs Leafs. You should never underestimate the heart of a champion – and we won’t either.
Tampa Bay Lightning – Toronto Maple Leafs Tip
Tampa doesn’t lose two home games in a row – certainly not in the playoffs. That’s the headline we could have put above this article, because that hasn’t happened in over three years.
In that respect, the conditions are clear for us. With Tampa vs. Toronto, a bet on the Lightning is our clear betting recommendation. This can even be combined with bets on over 5.5 total points. Because both teams have been offensively strong so far.
Alternatively, even handicap bets on Tampa are still recommended (up to -1.5). So far, none of the three games have been close and that could continue on Sunday. A win by Tampa with at least a two-goal difference would not be a big surprise.
