Will Tampa manage the important equalizer?
0-2 in the series, 0-2 in Game 3 and then came Trouba. In the midst of the New York Rangers’ momentum, the Rangers defenseman took two unnecessary penalties, bringing Tampa back into the game and the series with two power play goals.
Should the Bolts turn this series around now, Jacob Trouba will not have a nice off-season. But now the Lightning are back on top and it would be a big surprise if they can’t even the series on Tuesday.
The sting will run deep for New York and it will probably take the fans at home in Madison Square Garden to pull it back. So for Lightning vs. Rangers, our prediction for Game 4 is a somewhat clearer victory for the reigning champions.
With the Bolts now hot as well, the sub-par points they have dominated in recent games could also be in jeopardy. It almost smells a bit like a transition game where it could end up being clear.
Tampa Bay Lightning – stats & recent form
Was this the turning point of this playoff series? Or even the Bolts’ entire journey towards their third consecutive Stanley Cup triumph? How many times have we had that in recent years, where a team had to be on the brink of elimination before they could really get going?
So watch out for the Lightning. At the moment, we would strongly recommend betting on a series win for the Lightning, which with odds of around 2.20 (Bet365) are currently still higher than on the Rangers. Accordingly, the value is still worthwhile.
Crucial superiority of the Bolts
Why the series could turn around very quickly now? Because the Lightning are simply the better team. 51:30 shots on goal were recorded in Game 3 and it was only thanks to Rangers goalie Shesterkin that New York stayed in the game for so long.
However, their own goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy was also on fire. His 28 saves may not sound like much on paper, but there were a lot of really tough ones, including 1 on 1. It is so far and could continue to be a series of goalies.
Face-off advantage not to be underestimated
If there was anything else noticeable in Game 3, it was that the Bolts were the better face-off team in this matchup, which is especially important on the power play. Face-off wins kept Tampa in the offensive zone and later led to two important goals.
Although the two weakest face-off teams of the post-season meet here, the Bolts still have a clear advantage (46.0% to 43.0%). Another point why it should be difficult for New York on Tuesday.
All things considered, we do expect a series sweep in Game 4, which makes Tampa vs. New York odds on the Lightning playable across the board. Whether as pure win bets, with a -1.5 handicap, or even as a start-to-finish win (first goal + win).
Key Players:
G: Andrei Vasilevskiy
D: Victor Hedman
D: Jan Rutta
LW: Ondrej Palat
C: Brayden Point
RW: Nikita Kucherov
New York Rangers – Statistics & current form
Trouba means Trouble! That’s a very harsh way to put it, but at least in Game 3, the Rangers’ defender cost them the win and an almost certain berth in the Stanley Cup Finals. Now it’s going to be a heart-stopping series – with the momentum on the Bolts’ side.
How big the chance really was is shown by a look at the statistics, which show New York as clearly outclassed. 30:52 shots and plenty of scoring chances allowed by the Lightning – whether they will ever come so close to winning in Tampa again is questionable.
Away weakness serious
What could ultimately break their neck is their still obvious away weakness. The Rangers have only won two of six away games this postseason, which is by far the worst record of all remaining teams.
A lucky away win like that would have been worth its weight in gold. For Tuesday, we expect a somewhat clearer result – to the disadvantage of the men from the Big Apple. Especially mentally, the late death blow by Ondrej Palat will probably have an effect for a while.
“Momentum change” very likely
This “momentum change” word, especially in the US, could now come to fruition. A moment that changes everything, lifts the heads of the Bolts and lowers those of the Rangers.
We don’t expect a demotivated Rangers team, but a few percentage points might be missing, which is why a bet on Tampa in Game 4 is our clear favourite betting option for Bolts vs Rangers.
Key Players:
G: Igor Shesterkin
D: K’Andre Miller
D: Jacob Trouba
LW: Chris Kreider
C: Mika Zibanejad
RW: Frank Vatrano
Tampa Bay Lightning – New York Rangers Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
It was the Lightning’s first win of 2022 against the Rangers and also an immensely important one. Now that they’ve decided this do-or-die game for me, the series is almost a 50-50 proposition again from our perspective.
That doesn’t apply to Game 4, though, where we see the Bolts clearly ahead. Overall, Tampa also leads the shot statistics in this series with 122:92. 30 more shots is quite a statement and reminds us a bit of the Avalanche’s superiority in their series against the Oilers.
The difference: Colorado leads 3:0, whereas the Bolts are trailing 1:2. That should change on Tuesday and so for Tampa Bay against New York, the odds on the home team are almost a must-bet. Even a small to medium handicap is still a good possibility here.
Tampa Bay Lightning – New York Rangers Tip
Game 3 ended up going the way most expected it to. At some point the pressure of the Bolts became too strong and even the outstanding Igor Shesterkin (save percentage in Game 3 of 94.2%) couldn’t do anything anymore.
We don’t think it will be that close again – at least not in Game 4, so we see a bet on the Bolts as the most promising betting option for Tampa vs. New York.
As an alternative for Game 4, we see bets on a goal by Nikita Kucherov. He has finally really arrived in the playoffs and also in this series, scoring two goals and three assists in the last two games.
