Do the Avs dominate in Florida as well?
The Colorado Avalanche are cruising through the Stanley Cup Finals with kettledrums and trumpets, and then they add virtuoso violins. That’s about how you could describe the first two games in musical language and highlight the dominance of the men from Mile High City.
But they still haven’t won the Cup, after all the Lightning turned around a 2-0 deficit in the previous round. Still, the Avs look so much more solid than the Rangers that we have a hard time imagining that.
In addition, the Bolts have disappointed us offensively and they look quite tired after the feat against New York. The two more games they had to play in the previous round are starting to show.
That’s why our prediction for Tampa vs. Colorado is another Avs win in Game 3. They’re not likely to put up seven goals again away from home, but we now see them ahead in close, lower-scoring games as well.
First face-off of Game 3 of this year’s Stanley Cup Finals is at 02:00 on Tuesday night in Tampa, Florida. The game can be watched live on Sky Sport or with an NHL Game Pass on NHL.com.
Tampa Bay Lightning – Statistics & current form
I guess we overestimated the Lightning’s strength a bit. Especially in Game 2 they never really got their power on the ice and the players looked a bit drained, which is understandable after these energy-sapping playoffs.
Will they get a second wind now? A turnaround like the one against the Rangers can’t be ruled out, but it’s much less likely, as the Avs are a team that knows how to mercilessly exploit every mistake.
Bolts can’t get into the Avs’ third
One major problem that Tampa currently faces is the Avs’ aggressiveness, which results in Tampa getting little playing time in the Avalanche’s third. In the first two games, they only managed 39 shots on goal.
The Avs, on the other hand, are already at 68, a difference of 29 shots on goal. A number that is hard to outweigh even with great efficiency. So for Game 3, Tampa needs to check forward more, shoot more, get into the Avs’ third more.
Start of game hugely important
On top of that, the Bolts got off to incredibly poor starts in their two games so far. In Game 1 they were down 3-1 after the first period, and in Game 2 they were down 3-0. They need to show more, especially at the start of Game 3, and we’re sure they will in front of their own fans.
So we expect the Bolts to get off to a much better start on Monday, making underdog betting on Tampa for Period 1 an interesting betting alternative.
Bolts power play lame
While the Lightning were considered one of the better power play teams before the Stanley Cup Finals, they now stand at just a 20.6% success rate. Not once in the Finals have they been successful on more than six power plays.
Since the Avs are at 32.7% (best in the playoffs) and have won three of seven power plays, this is another plus for Colorado. Thus, with Bolts vs. Avs, the odds on the favourites are a good playable option away from Tampa as well.
Key Players:
G: Andrei Vasilevskiy
D: Victor Hedman
D: Jan Rutta
LW: Ondrej Palat
C: Brayden Point
RW: Nikita Kucherov
Colorado Avalanche – Statistics & current form
That was an announcement and it was clear. The Avs are finally going for the Stanley Cup this year, after always falling flat as co-favourites in previous years. They are well on their way to forcing their luck.
Especially at the beginning of the games, the Avs always make it clear immediately who is the top favourite for the Stanley Cup and so they took the Bolts to the cleaners early in both games. It should be a different story in Game 3, but we think Colorado is strong enough to triumph in the end
Kuemper with little to do
The exciting question about the starting goalie was answered by Head Coach Bednar once again with Darcy Kuemper and his shutout proved him right. However, he also only got 16 shots on goal in his box, which is quite exceptional for a game against the Bolts.
It shouldn’t be that easy in Game 3, but we trust Kuemper with his new-found confidence to keep Tampa under three goals again. All in all, we don’t expect too many goals in the Florida games.
The Bolts are a little too tired for that and the Avs won’t be as driven by their fans. Under 7.5 or even under 6.5 are therefore also good betting options for the upcoming two duels.
Balance in squad crucial
In Game 1, four different Avs players scored with Landeskog, Nichushkin, Lehkonen and Burakovsky. Now in Game 2, they added three more in Manson, Helm and Makar, which speaks to the terrific depth on the roster. Even superstar MacKinnon went scoreless and it was still enough for Colorado.
A total of eleven players registered in the scorers’ list on Saturday, a number that is already extraordinary for a Stanley Cup Final game. That strongly suggests that betting on the Avs in Tampa vs. Colorado is once again a slightly better option for Monday.
Key Players:
G: Darcy Kuemper
D: Devon Toews
D: Cale Makar
LW: Valeri Nichuskin
C: Nathan MacKinnon
RW: Mikko Rantanen
Statistic Highlights for Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche
The head-to-head matchup is now shifting further and further towards Colorado as the finals approach, and our appreciation (and thus betting euphoria) for the Bolts is starting to wane. Of the last six duels, five have gone to Colorado.
Since the momentum is now also on the Avalanche’s side, everything is currently in their favour. Still, they have to be careful. In the last round, it was a single Rangers player (Trouba) who brought the Bolts back into the game and thus into the entire series with two stupid penalties.
However, we reckon that the Avs are experienced enough not to commit these mistakes and see the odds on the Avs as very playable for Tampa vs. Colorado. Best even combined with Under 7.5 goals to add some value.
Tampa Bay Lightning – Colorado Avalanche Tip
For a long time we thought it would be a 50-50 series, but it’s now clear that the Bolts have left more grit over the course of the playoffs. They will of course throw everything in again in Game 3, but whether that will be enough in the end seems questionable.
With 29 fewer shots on goal so far, their efficiency will have to be outstanding to stand a chance. So for Lightning vs. Avalanche, a bet on Colorado + Under 7.5 goals is a bet we’d consider our No.1 option at great value.
Betting alternative for Game 3 is a Nathan MacKinnon goal. He’s one of a handful of Avs forwards in the top three so far without a goal. He would certainly like to change that and three games in a row without a goal would also be very unusual for him.
