Are the Bengals still riding the wave of success?

It’s crunch time in the NFL, with the final stretch of the regular season just around the corner. And in the matchup, which is the topic here, it becomes clearly visible how different a season is depending on the conference or division a team is based in.

When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Cincinnati Bengals, the prediction that the visitors from Ohio will win in Florida seems anything but far-fetched. Not least because of the current winning streak of last year’s Super Bowl participant.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead the NFC South – despite a negative win-loss record. With only six wins, they are only in eighth place in the conference, but the division win would still be enough for a playoff ticket. For that to happen at the end of the season, the Bucs’ offensive performance will inevitably have to improve significantly.

Despite having three more wins under their belt – i.e. a record of 9-4 – the Bengals are not in first place in their division. Since the Baltimore Ravens, who have the same record, won the first direct duel against Cincinnati, they currently have the lead. The top spot in the AFC North seems to be within the realms of possibility – given the Bengals’ current form – although the remaining schedule is particularly tough. A win in the Buccaneers vs. Bengals match would be all the more important for the visitors. The odds for this are settled at 1.53 in the comparison.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Statistics & Current Form

What was that pack? Tom Brady’s “homecoming” to San Francisco went thoroughly wrong last week. The 45-year-old Buccaneers quarterback, who was born just 40 kilometres from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, experienced a pitch-black day with his team against the strong San Francisco 49ers. In the entire game, the “GOAT” managed an impressive 253 passing yards against the statistically best defence in the NFL, but he also threw two interceptions. Due to these mistakes, the Bucs were only able to score a total of seven points.

The offense can’t get rolling

It’s been a theme throughout the season so far that the Buccaneers can’t find an offensive identity. Moving the ball consistently over long offensive series is almost impossible. Meanwhile, hopes for improvement are fading as well. The extremely poor running game takes so much away from the offense, making it easy for opposing defenses to focus on defending the pass. League-wide, Tampa Bay is the only team that has yet to break the 1,000 rushing yards mark, averaging 72.9 yards per game.

Playmaker Brady is also – and this is part of the truth – no longer in the form of earlier years. Due to some breakdowns in the offensive line, he often feels the pressure of the defence and as a result often throws the ball away very quickly. This in turn means that plays cannot develop, and he also throws the passes very imprecisely at times. This limits the offensive extremely, which can be seen in the average of only 17.2 points.

Basically, the Florida franchise has a good defence, but with Antoine Winfield Jr, Mike Edwards and Sean Murphy-Bunting, important pillars in the pass defence have been missing recently. When the fourth-best passing offence comes to Raymond James Stadium, it could be a very unpleasant matchup. That also further darkens our prediction in the Buccaneers vs. Bengals game for a successful outcome for the hosts.

Key Players:
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Leonard Fournette
WR: Mike Evans
TE: Cade Otton
K: Ryan Succop

Cincinnati Bengals – Statistics & current form

The current Bengals look almost stronger when evaluating this season than those that made it to the Super Bowl last season. Cincinnati has won all of its last five games, making it unbeaten since November 06. They also beat two of the top teams in the AFC Conference, the Titans and Chiefs, in that time frame.

Strongly improved recently

In the last two games, wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who had to take four games off in the meantime, was finally able to play again. In those two games he was the main playmaker for quarterback Joe Burrow as usual. In the win against the division rivals from Cleveland, he also scored his first touchdown, his last having been caught on the seventh day of play. Despite his absence for several weeks, Chase still leads the team in touchdown statistics. For a touchdown by him in the duel of the Buccaneers vs. Bengals, the betting odds are not particularly attractive for exactly that reason.

In the Cincinnati backfield, there was an important returnee last week in the form of running back Joe Mixon. Waiting for him now is a below-average run defence that allowed over 200 rushing yards last week against the 49ers. Between the Buccaneers and Bengals, our pick is also because he can make a big impact on his team’s offensive performance again.

Their own defence is allowing an average of just 20.4 points per game, but they are underperforming in pass defence, allowing over 220 yards per game. That’s exactly where the home side will have to start to have a chance in the game.

Key Players:
QB: Joe Burrow
RB: Joe Mixon
WR: Ja’Marre Chase
TE: Hayden Hurst
K: Evan McPherson

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Cincinnati Bengals Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

The first meeting between the two franchises took place back in the 1970s. Since then, however, there have only been twelve head-to-head duels, of which the Buccaneers have won seven. They also won the last game in 2018 – with different playmakers on both sides.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have only beaten the Cincinnati Bengals in two of their four appearances at home. A bet on the home side, who go into the encounter as underdogs, will bring odds of 2.65 in the upcoming match.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Cincinnati Bengals Tip

Only five times this season have the Bucs managed to score at least 20 points in a game and in the past three weeks, after the bye week, they have not managed to do so once. Even though the visitors’ defence is not an absolute top unit, we think it is absolutely realistic that they can keep the home side’s so far disappointing offence in check. Under these aspects, the recommendation that the Buccaneers score less than 20 points is quite realistic, but we decide on another tip that promises a little more value.

We assume that the Cincinnati offence will find plenty of starting points in the Bucs defence, which is weakened by replacements. That’s why we believe the visitors will reach the 25-point mark first. That’s also where we factor in that we don’t even remotely trust the hosts to score that many points. Between the Buccaneers and Bengals, we therefore see the odds of well over the 2.00 mark as extremely attractive.

The fact that the visitors can pull off the victory with at least four points seems anything but far-fetched due to the omens. It needs the four points to cover the bookies’ issued handicap. While we see the Bengals on the rise, the Buccaneers are now wondering whether they will even make the playoffs. However, they are lucky to play in a weak division.