Who will win in the possible ‘do-or-die game’ of the NFC South?

Welcome to the NFC South showdown! The weakest division on paper, with not even the division leader having a positive win-loss record, could be decided on the penultimate day of play when the Buccaneers host the Panthers. A bet on the visitors, who are considered underdogs, brings odds of up to 2.45 on the betting slip. A success does not seem out of the question.

The probabilities on the postseason of the teams are 76 and 22 percent respectively. This difference comes about because Tampa Bay, with a record of 7-8, has one more win on its record than Carolina, who in turn stand at 6-9. However, the Panthers won the “first leg” on matchday seven and would take the top spot in the division with another win. That would put them in control of their own destiny next week.

While the hosts of the upcoming clash struggled to an overtime win against battered and weak Arizona Cardinals last week, the Panthers surprised with a win against the favoured Detroit Lions. That’s another reason why between the Buccaneers and Panthers the clearly spread betting odds are surprising.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Statistics & current form

Quo vadis, Buccaneers? The NFL season is now 16 game days old and the season is entering its final phase. In December and January, as we all know, it is important to play your best football, because any bad performance could mean that the season is over after the “regular season”. Although Tampa Bay – like all teams – has already played 15 games, they are difficult to assess. The team, with “GOAT” Tom Brady as playmaker, has stumbled a lot. In addition, the 45-year-old quarterback is now regularly making unknown mistakes. Most recently, he threw two interceptions in three consecutive games for the first time since 2002.

Offensive piecemeal

Of their last five games, they won only two and were not convincing in any of those matches. Since the bye week in week eleven, they averaged 16.6 points and conceded over eight more in that period. The match on Matchday 13 summed up the Florida franchise’s season perfectly. They only scored three points with three minutes to go before scoring two touchdowns in the closing minutes – thanks to an outstanding Brady – to just about pull themselves out of trouble. However, even the “greatest of all time” will reach a limit with this offence at some point.

The rushing offence is almost non-existent and by far the worst running unit in the entire NFL. Against Arizona, however, they managed their first 100-yard rushing match since the Munich Game in mid-November. Now, however, they are up against an in-form rushing defence, so the prediction between the Buccaneers and Panthers is clearly that there will be plenty of weight on Brady’s shoulders again.

After all, the Bucs have the sixth-best defence. This has played a large part in the seven victories they have been able to record so far. The strength is definitely in defending the passing game, though Carolina’s good running game could become a problem.

Key Players:
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Leonard Fournette
WR: Mike Evans
TE: Cade Otton
K: Ryan Succop

Carolina Panthers – Statistics & current form

This came as a surprise! As clear underdogs, the Panthers stopped the Detroit Lions’ winning streak, and while the Lions now can’t punch their playoff ticket on their own, Carolina holds all the aces. With two wins in the two remaining regular season games, the Charlotte-based franchise would qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2017.

Positive Development

The Panthers slipped a little under the radar into second place in the NFC South, winning four of their past six meetings. Away from home, Steve Wilks, who took over from former head coach Matt Rhule on 10 October 2022, has only managed one win. That came just three weeks ago.

When Carolina let running back and superstar Christian McCaffrey move to San Francisco, some fans were already inwardly ticking off the season. Strictly speaking, however, the move did have a positive impact on the performance of the running game. The bulk of the running attempts are taken by D’Onta Foreman, who has run for over 100 yards five times in nine games since becoming the number one running back.

His season best of 165 yards came just last week. Last week, Carolina also set a new franchise record for rushing yards. Will the team manage something similar in the Buccaneers’ match-up against the Panthers? A bet on that would be extremely risky – despite the possible home defence.

Even if the defensive unit is not statistically among the league leaders in the NFL, they can be an unpleasant matchup. That was evident in the first game against the Bucs, when they allowed only three points. They have also never conceded more than 25 points in a game since week ten. Can they do the same in the Buccaneers vs. Panthers game? A prediction on that is tempting – also due to the offensive weakness of the home side.

Key Players:
QB: Sam Darnold
RB: D’Onta Foreman
WR: DJ Moore
TE: Tommy Tremble
K: Eddy Pineiro

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Carolina Panthers Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

With 25 wins to just 19 losses, the record favours the hosts. In 2019, the last time the Panthers went into a game against the Bucs as favourites, Carolina won for the last time at “Raymond James Stadium”. In the 45th duel between the two, the signs are different, as already mentioned, and so there are maximum odds of 1.62 for a home win for the Buccaneers against Panthers in the comparison.

While Tom Brady has already faced the Panthers ten times in his career and celebrated six victories, Carolina quarterback Sam Darnold is still waiting for his first success against Tampa Bay. In the two games he played against them, he lost with his respective team. In the first meeting of the season, PJ Walker started at the playmaker position for Carolina.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Carolina Panthers Tip

In our eyes, the odds on the markets between the Buccaneers and Panthers are too clearly in favour of the home side. The Bucs have rarely been convincing this season and that is why we are betting on the visitors – in what could be a decisive duel in the NFC South.

Of course, the hosts have indescribable experience at the quarterback position with Tom Brady, but that wasn’t always enough in recent games to provide a baseline for the static offence. Carolina smells morning air and we can well imagine their good running game becoming kryptonite for the Floridians.

The bookies are not expecting a high-scoring game, as the over/under limit of 39 points already shows, but we still trust the guests to score a few points.