Who will win the NFC vs. AFC Clash?

The top game of the week comes on NFL Match Day 14 at reigning champion Tampa Bay, who host the Buffalo Bills. The Bucs will be in a much better shape than the Bills, as the last results prove.

Tampa has won three in a row, while Buffalo has lost two of its last three games, including an extremely clear defeat at home to the Colts. So the status of favourite for Sunday is clearly assigned: in favour of the Bucs.

While Tom Brady and his Buccaneers are thus picking up speed just in time for the playoffs, the Bills are stumbling just before the most important phase of the season – especially offensively. After months of being the NFL’s best offence, they scored just ten points against the Pats.

For Buccaneers vs. Bills, our prediction is therefore also another failure of Josh Allen and his Bills, who would thus slowly but surely have to fear for their almost certain playoff participation.

Kickoff of the exciting game is Sunday night at 22:25. The game can be watched live on ProSieben Maxx or on DAZN.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Statistics & current form

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ mission to defend their title has finally begun, as the last few games impressively proved. If in the meantime something was cut back and tried out, the Bucs are now back in all-in mode.

It will then be difficult for any team to beat them, even if Brady makes an unusual mistake, like the unthreatened pick six against the Falcons. But with those mistakes currently the exception, the Bucs have hardly been in danger since the Washington loss.

Pit against Washington as a wake-up call

This very loss to the Washington football team may have also been the turning point of the Bucs’ season. After that, they were only 6-3 and in danger of losing first place in the NFC South. That threat has now clearly been averted.

Even the first spot in the NFC is still within the realm of possibility – and thus bye week in the first playoff round. For the old men Brady and Gronkowski, this would certainly not be the worst option. So the motivation for the last four games of the season should be high.

Running game as X factor

As good as Tom Brady is once again this season (No. 1 in passing yards and TD passes), however, their running game will become even more important for the crucial stretch of the season. Brady has even stressed that himself.

The game against the Colts with 142 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns (3 Fournette, 1 Jones) was the best proof of that. This means should also be used again against the Bills’ run defence, which is somewhat more susceptible to attacking the run.

All in all, there is little to say against the Bucs’ fourth success in a row. Thus, the odds on Brady and Co. for Tampa vs. Buffalo are clearly to be favoured. Even with a small handicap of -3.5, we still get excellent value here.

Key Players:
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Leonard Fournette
WR: Mike Evans
TE: Rob Gronkowski
K: Ryan Succop

Buffalo Bills – stats & current form

Are the Bills actually blowing their playoff spot? At 7-5, they are currently just one win away from a non-playoff spot. They’re almost lucky to have their final two games of the season against the Falcons and Jets.

But until then, three difficult tasks await them in the form of the Bucs, the Panthers and the Patriots, one of which they should try to complete positively. However, it is unlikely that this will work against Tampa right away.

Bills never looked good against Brady

The Buffalo Bills know Tom Brady better than any other player. For 20 years, they met the GOAT twice a year, winning only eight of those 40 duels. Brady has no more wins against any other opponent.

The only glimmer of hope is the Bills’ defence against the pass. With 165.3 yards allowed per game, they rank first in the NFL. Whether that mark can be maintained against Brady, however, is more than questionable.

Bills lack the winning gene

It is precisely from this period of Pats superiority that the Bills seem to lack the winning gene. It was already evident in the pivotal NFL Conference Championship Game against the Chiefs in January.

So we don’t expect the Bills to be able to turn the tables here in Tampa on Sunday either. For Bucs vs. Bills, a bet on Tampa -3.5 is our clear betting option No.1.

Key Players:
QB: Josh Allen
RB: Devin Singletary
WR: Stefon Diggs
TE: Dawson Knox
K: Tyler Bass

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Buffalo Bills Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

The Bills’ record against the Buccaneers doesn’t look too bad, as they have won two of their last three meetings. The problem: Tom Brady wasn’t playing for the Bucs then.

Against Brady, the Bills’ record looks disastrous. Brady won nine of the last ten meetings with Buffalo. He “owns” the Bills almost like Rodgers owns the Bears.

So we would definitely avoid betting on Buffalo. For Tampa against Buffalo, the odds on the Bucs are much more promising, as the bookmakers only see them with a slight advantage, for whatever reason.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Buffalo Bills Tip

A lot to be said for the Buccaneers on Sunday. Their better offense (31.4 to 28.0 points per game), home field advantage (5-0 record at home) and Brady’s record against the Bills (32-8). It would thus amount to a big surprise to see the Bucs lose.

As big as the surprise would be, however, the difference in the betting odds is not, which is why we clearly favour a bet on Tampa -3.5 for Bucs vs. Bills. We could even give them up to five or six points of a lead with a clear conscience.

Alternatively, bets on a rushing touchdown by Leonard Fournette are also possible. He scored three of them against the Colts and the Bills are clearly more vulnerable against the run than the pass.