Will Sweden take advantage of their home advantage?
The top favorites are among themselves in our Sweden vs. USA tip, as both teams were already considered potential title contenders before the World Cup. Switzerland, on the other hand, only played its way into this circle during the tournament, and Denmark is the Cinderella story par excellence (albeit without any real chance of winning the title).
Will the US team fail again so close to a World Cup final? They have done so seven times in the last eleven World Cups. The semi-finals are something of a kryptonite for them, which they must now finally overcome.
But they have the most difficult task ahead of them with Team Sweden, who not only have one of the strongest defenses in the tournament, but also have home advantage in Stockholm. To make matters worse, the Swedes are significantly better when it comes to their semi-final record.
In the past eleven years, they have only made it to the last four five times, but they have won the tournament three times. That’s why our prediction for Sweden vs. USA is another win for Sweden, with Red Wings star Lucas Raymond likely to get on the scoresheet again.
Sweden – Statistics & current form
Now they’re rolling, the Swedes. With their arch-rivals Canada already out of the tournament, the door to the World Championship title in their own country is wide open. All they have to do is walk through it – past the bouncers from the USA and those of their subsequent final opponents.
However, the USA has some very strong bouncers from the NHL in its ranks. The US stars’ offense in particular impresses with its accuracy and efficiency. Even against the Finns, they only needed 28 shots on goal to score five times. This is where Sweden’s defense comes into play.
Best defense of the tournament
Looking at their opponents so far and the more difficult group, we have to give Sweden the best defense of the World Championship to date. They have conceded an average of only 1.25 goals per game – and without the game against Canada, it would have been only 0.63 per game.
We already listed the names in our last tip: Edvinsson, Gustafsson, Larsson, Petterson, Andersson, Brodin, and Sandin. All of them are seasoned NHL pros and, above all, they know the US forwards inside out. That’s a huge advantage the Swedish team has over other teams in matches against the US.
Tips on Team Sweden and Raymond possible
But the team is also impressive on offense. With Elias Lindholm, they have one of the best scorers in the tournament (7 goals) and with Leo Carlsson and Lucas Raymond, two others who already have four goals to their credit.
Raymond in particular has impressed us greatly in recent games. He has had a total of 20 shots on goal in the last five games, which is an average of four shots per game (the best in this period). This naturally increases his chances of scoring enormously. Accordingly, he has scored four times in these five games.
This means that the odds on Raymond scoring in Sweden vs. USA are definitely worth taking advantage of. In general, however, bets on Team Sweden are also a good option here, as we believe they should come out on top in the end.
Key Players:
- G: Jacob Markström
- D: Rasmus Andersson
- D: Jonas Brodin
- LW: Lucas Raymond
- C: Elias Lindholm
- RW: Filip Forsberg
USA – Statistics & current form
The USA and their disastrous semi-final record! However, with an extremely young team this year, that shouldn’t be on their minds. Nevertheless, they are now considered the slight underdogs against Sweden, and rightly so.
They have been the efficiency monsters of the tournament so far, but will that remain the case against Sweden and world-class goalie Jacob Markström? We don’t think so, and we don’t predict 28 shots on goal for the US. The number is more likely to be just over 20.
Offense will have a harder time
Then again, five goals of their own is also unrealistic – even if they have averaged 4.88 goals per game so far. Against Team Sweden, however, even two goals will be difficult. For us, this is also the magic number. If the US scores more than two goals, they have a chance; if not, then they don’t.
A lot will also depend on how the game starts. The Czechs failed to do this against Sweden and were already 0-3 down after the first period. Team USA must avoid this, but it won’t be easy.
Avoid betting on the USA
This makes betting against the USA more viable in general. This applies to both the first period and the entire game. All in all, our prediction for Sweden vs. USA is a win for the home team, which should also have that extra 5 percent power from the fans.
In addition, the betting odds for individual tips should be exploited in Sweden vs. USA. We expect Lucas Raymond to score for Sweden and Conor Garland is at the top of our list for the USA.
Key Players:
- G: Jeremy Swayman
- D: Brady Skjei
- D: Zach Werenski
- LW: Matt Beniers
- C: Clayton Keller
- RW: Conor Garland
Sweden – USA Head-to-head record / H2H record
Three of the last five head-to-head matches went to Sweden. The US team’s only two victories came in overtime. This is another point that slightly favors the home team.
The goal difference in these last five matches was 18:10 – a clear dominance for Team Sweden. This also results in an average of 5.6 goals per game – a figure that we also consider appropriate for the upcoming match.
Nevertheless, we would still go slightly lower in this regard, and so for Team Sweden vs. Team USA, the odds on over 5.0 goals are the most playable for us – at still acceptable betting odds.
Sweden – USA Tip
Will the USA break their semi-final curse or will Sweden prevail with the help of their home crowd? We consider the second option to be slightly more likely, especially as Sweden have entered the World Cup with their best team in years.
That makes a bet on Team Sweden one of our main tips for Sweden vs. USA. However, we think there is even more value in a goal from Lucas Raymond, who has been one of Team Sweden’s outstanding players in the last five games.
We have already recommended a player bet. However, there is another option for a US player, namely a goal from Conor Garland. For us, he is the equivalent of Raymond. Although he is not at the top of the internal list, he has been the most dangerous player for the US recently.
