Without Schröder and Theis to Stockholm
The EURO Basket 2022, which starts next week, is currently above everything, but already now the World Cup next year in Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines is casting its shadow ahead. Before the European Championship, the German basketball players have two third-round qualifying games on the agenda. On Thursday, they will first play against the Swedish team in Stockholm.
The results from the second qualification round were carried over and so Germany leads the ranking with 5:1 victories. A success in Sweden would be a big step towards the World Cup. It will be harder next Sunday, when the Slovenians around superstar Luka Doncic will be guests in Munich. But on Thursday, and there is no way around it, a win is needed first.
The DBB men are leading the table and are being chased by Finland (5:1) and Slovenia (4:2). In total, three teams in the six-team group qualify for the championships. It will be very difficult for Israel (3:3), Sweden and Estonia (both 2:4) to climb up the rankings. The starting position makes it clear that in the duel Sweden vs. Germany the forecast should go to an away win.
Sweden – Statistics & current form
Basketball is certainly not to be called a popular sport in Sweden, but nevertheless there is a bit of a euphoria around the Swedish basketball players. That’s because the first qualification for a World Cup is within reach. That’s the big goal for coach Ludwig Degernäs and his players, who want to start the chase with a win against Germany.
Too many defeats
Another advantage of the Swedes is also that they do not have to have the European Championship in the back of their minds, but can go all out in the two upcoming qualifiers against Germany and then in Israel. However, the current form is rather manageable with only one win from the last five games, although they did at least leave the Croats behind in the second qualifying round.
The Swedes last hosted Slovenia in Stockholm at the beginning of July. It was the home side’s undoing that they could not get a grip on Luka Doncic and had to allow him 31 points. In the end, Ludwig Degernäs’ team lost by a narrow 81-84 margin, with the team still trailing by twelve points at the beginning of the last quarter.
The Swedish team does not have top stars from the NBA, but has several players under contract in the Spanish league, who are therefore also playing at a good level. However, if you compare the line-ups, the only real option left in the match between Sweden and Germany are the odds on an away win.
Predicted squad of Sweden:
Andersson, Birgander, Borg, Gaddefors, Hakanson, Hook, Larsson, Markusson, Pantzar, Rush, Schuberg, Terins – Coach: Degernäs
Germany – Statistics & current form
Germany has a lot of plans. World Cup qualification is the long-term goal. All efforts are geared towards the home European Championship, where the preliminary round will be played in Cologne and the finals in Berlin. However, Gordon Herbert’s team currently does not look as if they could fight for the medals at the EURO Basket. But maybe the German giants will rise above themselves in front of their own audience.
The results are right
The results in the last international matches, however, can be seen overall. The German team won eight of the last nine matches. If the offensive weaknesses, which were also evident in the victories, are eliminated, then the forecast for Thursday’s qualifying match between Sweden and Germany should go in the direction of the DBB men.
The now traditional Supercup was on the agenda last weekend. In the semi-finals, Germany first won against the Czech Republic with 101:90. In the final, however, the limits were clearly shown by one of the favourites for the European Championship title. The German team lost 56:83 against the Serbian team. Especially in the offensive, not much went together.
To make matters worse, Daniel Theis and Dennis Schröder were injured at the Supercup. Theis’ participation in the European Championship is even in danger. Besides Moritz Wagner and Paul Zipser, this would be the third bitter loss at the EURO Basket. Dennis Schröder should be fit again for the start of the tournament. Nils Giffey, who missed the Supercup for personal reasons, will return to the squad in Sweden.
Predicted squad of Germany:
Giffey, Hollatz, Krämer, Lo, Obst, Sengfelder, Thiemann, Voigtmann, F. Wagner, Weiler-Babb, Wohlfahrt-Bottermann – Coach: Herbert
Sweden – Germany Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
In total, the national teams of Sweden and Germany have met in only seven international matches. The record is more than clear, as the German basketball giants have won all seven duels. Quite often, the encounters were more than clear-cut. The last duel took place in Trier in August 2019.
At that time, both teams faced each other in a friendly match in which a class difference became more than clear. The German team won all four quarters in commanding fashion, ultimately winning 78:46. Paul Zipser stood out from a well-balanced German team with 14 points.
Sweden – Germany Tip
Sweden desperately need a win to move up to the top three places in the table. Germany will want to prevent that at all costs, because after all, the DBB men have won all their games against the northern lights. A win in Stockholm would be half the battle on the road to the 2023 World Cup. The Scandinavians have lost four of their last five international matches, but have recently put up a hot fight against the strong Slovenians.
The German giants, on the other hand, have won eight of their last nine games, but have recently shown major deficits in their attack against Serbia. That could also be a problem on Thursday in Stockholm.
But if Gordon Herbert’s team manages to get their pace into the hall, then a win should be possible. There should be no lack of motivation in the World Cup qualifiers anyway and besides, it’s all about putting ourselves in the best possible position for the home European Championships. That is why we have decided to place our betting odds on a German handicap win (-6.5 points) in the match between Sweden and Germany.
