Will the European champions pass the compulsory task?
Winning the title at a European Handball Championship is at least as difficult as winning a World Cup title. Conversely, this means that the reigning European champion is always one of the favourites at a World Cup. In addition, the Swedes will be playing at home on their mission. In the European champions’ opening match between Sweden and Brazil, a bet on a home win in Gothenburg should therefore be a clear affair.
Generally speaking, the preliminary round should be no more than a formality for the Swedish team. It probably doesn’t even take a sports betting bonus to predict the hosts as group winners. The toughest match is likely to be the opener against the Selecao. The other group opponents are then Cape Verde and Uruguay. Anything less than three wins for the Swedes would be tantamount to a sensation.
This means that the Scandinavians will almost certainly take 4-0 points into the main round and thus have a very good chance of making it to the quarter-finals. Already on Thursday, there is a lot to be said for a clear home victory for the Europeans in the Scandinavium in Gothenburg between Sweden and Brazil.
The Brazilians, however, are certainly the favourites for second place in this Group C. After all, the Selecao are the reigning champions of the Central and South American Championships. However, the South Americans have already passed their zenith, as the Brazilian team was built up for the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio. The South Americans can hardly keep up with the top teams from Europe and therefore even a close match against the European champions would be a good game for the Brazilians.
Sweden – Statistics & current form
The conditions ahead of this World Cup could hardly be better for the Swedes. If everything goes according to plan, the European champions will still be in the knockout round. On top of that, Glenn Solberg’s team will play all their games, no matter how far they go in this tournament, in front of their own crowd. Accordingly, the pressure will certainly be great.
General rehearsal set in the sand
It’s just as well that the Scandinavians can at least take a relaxed approach to the preliminary round. The opponents should all be handpicked. Basically, it’s hardly conceivable that the Swedes will give up a point already in the group stage. In principle, therefore, there is nothing to stop you playing the odds on a home win in the match between Sweden and Brazil, except perhaps that the prices on this bet are rather low.
The European champions have had their problems in their immediate preparation for the home World Cup, however. In the last week, they played twice against their German group opponents from Serbia. First, Sweden narrowly prevailed with 35:34. Then, last Monday, they suffered a 28:30 defeat in the dress rehearsal. After all, a failed dress rehearsal often promises a great tournament.
Even the European champions were not spared injuries before the World Championships. With Jonathan Edvardsson, Valter Chrintz and Karl Wallinius, notable players are missing. Nevertheless, Glenn Solberg has assembled a squad that, with key players Hampus Wanne and Jim Gottfridsson, should definitely have something to say about the medal.
Predicted line-up of Sweden:
Goal: Palicka, Appelgren, Thulin
Back: Claar, Gottfridsson, Carlsbogard, Johansson, Schefvert, Lagergren, Persson, Sandell
Left wing: Wanne, Pelias
Right wing: Ekberg, Pettersson
Circle: Darj, Pettersson, Bergendahl
Coach: Solberg
Last matches played by Sweden:
Friendlies
09/01/2023 – Sweden 28 – 30 Serbia
06/01/2023 – Sweden 35 – 34 Serbia
EHF EURO Cup 2024
16/10/2022 – Sweden 34 – 32 Denmark
13/10/2022 – Germany 33 – 37 Sweden
Friendlies
16/04/2022 – Sweden 23 – 31 Denmark
Brazil – Statistics & current form
This is the 16th time the Brazilian side has participated in a Handball World Cup. Since 1995, they have always taken part, which is due to the superiority in South America, which only the Argentines have tried to shake to this day. However, the Brazilians have only managed to finish in the top ten at a world tournament in 2019. If they want to repeat that result, the encounter against the European champions is already a key game.
Marcus Oliveira’s side are widely expected to prevail against Uruguay and Cape Verde as the tournament progresses. But that will hardly be enough for the quarter-finals. With a point or even a win against the hosts, however, the Selecao’s chances increase exponentially.
Weak preparation by the Selecao
The Brazilians have clearly gained more match practice before the World Cup, but with only very moderate success. In six games, there was only one victory – that against the handball exotic from the United States. On the other hand, there were five defeats against South Korea, Tunisia, Poland, Norway and Portugal – some of them very clear defeats. Only against the Portuguese did they manage to keep the defeat within reasonable bounds, conceding only three goals.
All in all, Brazil play in a very unorthodox manner, although their style of play has already been adapted to the top teams of the old continent by numerous European legionnaires. No fewer than ten players are under contract in the Spanish league alone, including Thiagus dos Santos at the top club in Barcelona. Coach Marcus Oliveira would also like to have another Barcelona player on board, but Haniel Langaro is out for the World Cup with a torn Achilles tendon.
Predicted line-up of Brazil:
Goal: da Rosa, Tercariol, Martins Nascimento
Back: J. Silva, Abrahao, Dutra, Ponciano, Nantes, Guimaraes, Rodrigues
Left wing: Torriani, Monta da Silva
Right wing: Chiuffa, Hackbarth
Circle: Ferreira, dos Santos, Francisco da Silva, G. Silva
Coach: Oliveira
Last matches played by Brazil:
Golden League, Norway
08/01/2023 – Portugal 31 – 28 Brazil
07/01/2023 – Norway 30 – 23 Brazil
05/01/2023 – Brazil 27 – 22 USA
Friendlies
30/12/2022 – Poland 31 – 23 Brazil
29/12/2022 – Tunisia 29 – 24 Brazil
Sweden – Brazil Direct comparison / H2H balance
Since the 2003 World Cup in Portugal, the Swedish and Brazilian handball teams have crossed paths a total of six times. It is no surprise that all six games have gone to the Scandinavians, who thus far have an unblemished record against the Selecao. After all, from the South Americans’ point of view, things were reasonably close at least between the 2012 Olympics and a test match in early 2016.
But at the Rio Olympics, of all places, the last meeting between the two teams to date, the Brazilians had no chance. Sweden outclassed the South Americans 30:19 in the preliminary round, but still finished bottom of the group, while the Selecao still managed to advance to the quarter-finals as third in the group.
Sweden – Brazil tip
Likely to be a clear-cut affair in the opening match of the European champions and World Cup hosts. The Swedes have shown some room for improvement in the test matches against Serbia, but against the Brazilians, who have become rather second-rate, it should still be enough for a clear first victory, especially since Brazil will be missing one of their two top stars, Haniel Langaro, due to injury.
The Swedes don’t have their top squad either, but the Scandinavians are more likely to be able to compensate for one or two absences. Therefore, we expect Glenn Solberg’s team to start with a clear victory. We also expect a bet on more than 57.5 goals in the duel between Sweden and Brazil to be successful.
We can safely disregard the odds on an easy win for the Scandinavians. Odds of just over 1.00 can hardly conceal any value. This means that one should have the right feeling for the corresponding handicap. We have decided to play the betting odds on a handicap win (-7.5) for the European champions in the match between Sweden and Brazil.
