Will Finland surprise the world champions?

You can’t speak of a dramatic death of favourites at the EURO Basket 2022. With Lithuania, Serbia and Turkey, three teams that one could have imagined in the quarter-finals have been eliminated early, but with Greece and Slovenia, the top favourites are still in the game. The world champions from Spain also still have hopes of winning the title.

On Tuesday, the Spanish will meet the team from Finland in Berlin. The Iberians are the heavy favourites. The Spaniards have won a medal at the last three Olympic Games and nine times at the last ten European Championships. La Roja also won World Cup gold in 2006 and most recently in 2019, despite seemingly overwhelming competition from the United States.

The Finns are one of the big surprises at this European Championship, but also in recent months. After all, the Scandinavians are the first European team to have already secured their ticket to next year’s World Championships in Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines. Nevertheless, in this quarter-final between Spain and Finland, the forecast is for a clear victory for the world champions.

However, the Finns are dangerous. It took them a while to find their way into the tournament, but now they seem to have arrived completely.

Spain – Statistics & current form

The Spaniards have been such a bit of an understatement ahead of EURO Basket 2022. That’s because brothers Pau and Marc Gasol, who were part of a golden Spanish basketball generation, have ended their international careers. Ricky Rubio is also not in the mix and so the reigning world champions were indeed not considered the top favourites at this European Championship.

In the quarter-finals for the 21st time in a row

However, Spain have now reached the quarter-finals of a European Championship for the 21st time in a row since 1979. This shows that the team is more than just one or two superstars for generations. But in fact, only one of the veteran players, Rudy Fernandez, is currently in Italian coach Sergio Scariolo’s squad.

Surprisingly, the world champions were beaten by the strong Belgians in the preliminary round. Overall, however, the Iberians have won seven of their last eight international matches. It would not be at all surprising if La Roja were to make it to the medal round once again and that is why we are mainly looking at the odds for a Spanish victory in this quarter-final between Spain and Finland.

In the round of 16, however, the Spaniards already had to really stretch themselves. Lithuania was a very strong opponent. Spain trailed by eight points until the middle of the fourth quarter, before they managed to get into overtime with an 83:83 score. Sergio Scariolo’s team managed to do almost everything and in the end Lorenzo Brown led his team to a 102-94 victory with 28 points.

Predicted line-up of Spain:
Brown, Pradilla, R. Fernandez, Lopez-Arostegui, J. Fernandez, Brizuela, Diaz, Saiz, W. Hernangomez, Garuba, J. Hernangomez, Parra – Coach: Scariolo

Finland – Statistics & current form

The Finnish basketball players have been going through a very positive development for a good ten years. The qualification for the World Cup next year is already in the bag. In addition, they have reached the quarter-finals of a European Basketball Championship for the first time since 1967, when they were the hosts. To be honest, however, nothing more should be possible for the Finns at this tournament.

The Finnish team is in very good shape. Lassi Tuovi’s team has won seven of the last nine international matches. It is striking that the game of the Scandinavians is almost exclusively carried by the power forward Lauri Markkanen. In almost every game at this EURO Basket, the man from the Utah Jazz was the Finns’ top scorer.

Even though the opponent on Tuesday has a lot of quality, we still dare to predict that Lauri Markkanen will throw more than 20.5 points in the match Spain vs. Finland. But we still think that it will not be enough for the Finns to reach the semi-finals. Lassi Tuovi’s team has already achieved more than they were expected to before the start of the tournament.

In the round of 16, everyone expected a match on equal terms against the team from Croatia, and that’s exactly how it turned out. Until the middle of the last quarter, the lead changed back and forth before Lauri Markkanen pulled the game to himself and decided it in favour of the Finns in crunch time. The 25-year-old was responsible for 43 points and nine rebounds in the 94-86 victory.

Predicted line-up of Finland:
Little, Huff, Salin, Koponen, Kantonen, Jantunen, Valtonen, Madsen, Maxhuni, Markkanen, Seppälä, Palmi – Coach: Tuovi

Spain – Finland Direct comparison / H2H-balance

To date, the national teams from Spain and Finland have only crossed paths ten times. The direct comparison is clearly in favour of the Iberians, who are 8:2 ahead after victories. However, it was some time ago when these two teams last met. To be precise, the last encounter dates back to September 2013.

At that time, both teams met in the intermediate round of the EURO Basket, where the Spaniards won clearly with 82:56. Jose Calderon was the best scorer for the Spaniards with 23 points. Rudy Fernandez was the only Spaniard who was already in the game at that time. For the Finns, Petteri Koponen, Shawn Huff and Sasu Salin were already in the squad.

Spain – Finland Tip

The Spaniards are the clear favourites in this encounter. The medal hamsters from the Iberian Peninsula have taken home numerous precious metals from the major tournaments in recent years. A win against the Finns would be compulsory to have a chance of winning again. Tendentially, the Spaniards should already win this match.

As a team, the world champions should be much more balanced and therefore stronger. Basically, the only important thing is to eliminate Lauri Markkanen. The top scorer of the Finns is the guarantor for the fact that the Scandinavians have achieved the best result at a European Championship since 1967.

But we don’t expect the Iberians to make a clear run in this match. There will probably always be phases in which the Finns also throw their points. Nevertheless, there should be an unchallenged victory and therefore we have decided to play the betting odds on a handicap victory (-7.5) of the Spanish team between Spain and Finland.