European Champion vs. World Champion
It’s a shame that the German team had to pull out of the tournament in the main round. The circumstances that led to this are well known, but in fact the DHB handball players are not currently among the best teams in the world. They are all together in the semifinals. In addition to the duel between France and Sweden, there will also be a match between Spain and Denmark on Friday.
Spain against Denmark, that doesn’t just sound like a worthy European Championship semi-final, it is. The reigning European champions could win their third continental title in a row. But no lesser team than the reigning world champions wants to block this path for the Iberians on Friday. The recent trophies alone indicate that two of the best handball teams in the world will face each other in the MVM Dome.
The odds on a Danish win are just under 1.20. There can’t be much value in that, but those odds are at least the starting point to make a prediction on a Danish win in the match between Spain and Denmark.
We don’t expect a big win, though, as Gonzalo Perez de Vargas and Niklas Landin are two of the best keepers in the world between the posts on Friday. The attacking lines will have to come up with something in order to score a lot of goals, which is why we think it makes sense to bet on less than 55.5 goals between Spain and Denmark.
Spain – Statistics & current form
It is no surprise that the Spaniards reached the semi-finals as group winners of the main round. The Iberians were European champions in 2018 and 2020 and won the bronze medal at the 2021 World Cup in Egypt as well as subsequently at the Tokyo Olympics in the summer. Jordi Ribera’s team can always take things up a notch, especially in major tournaments.
Compensated well for losses
After the retirements of some long-time key players and the injury-related absences of the Dujshebaev brothers, the Spaniards did not start as the big favourites in this tournament. In addition, the European champions also had players infected, so that the odds on a Spanish victory between Spain and Denmark are correspondingly high.
Overall, however, the Spaniards have shown few weaknesses since the Olympics in Tokyo and have won eleven of their last twelve international matches. Only last Sunday they lost against Norway. On Wednesday, a laborious 28:27 victory over Poland was still enough to win the group. When it comes down to it, the Spaniards are always a force to be reckoned with.
In the meantime, the infected players have also been cleared. Therefore, Jordi Ribera can bring his best players to the plate on Friday. This is probably the prerequisite to be able to take on the world champions at all, but especially at the European Championships it was the Iberians who had to be beaten first in recent years.
The Spain squad:
Goal: Perez de Vargas, Corrales, Hernandez
Backs: Casado, Tarrafeta, Canellas, Garcia, Marquez, Gurbindo, Maqueda
Left wing: Fernandez, Arino, Sanchez-Migallon
Right wing: Sole, Gomez, Odriozola
Circle: Pecina, Figueras, Guardiola
Coach Ribera
Last matches played by Spain:
European Championships Main Round Grp. 2
01/25 2022 – Poland 27 – 28 Spain
01/23 2022 – Spain 23 – 27 Norway
01/21 2022 – Russia 25 – 26 Spain
01/20 2022 – Germany 23 – 29 Spain
European Championships Preliminary Round Grp. E
01/17 2022 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 24 – 28 Spain
Denmark – Statistics & current form
All in all, Denmark probably have the best squad at this European Championship. Moreover, it is Mikkel Hansen who is showing the best form of the assembled superstars in the top teams, and in Mathias Gidsel he also now has a congenial sidekick who may follow in Mikkel Hansen’s big footsteps in the coming years.
Saving grains for the semi-finals
Up until Wednesday, everything went like clockwork for the Danes at this European Championship. Nicolaj Jacobsen’s team had six wins from six games and a ten-game winning streak since the Olympic final. The Danes had already been confirmed as semi-finalists before the final match against France and therefore some players were spared.
Mikkel Hansen, Mathias Gidsel and Magnus Saugstrup were not even in the squad against the Olympic champions and yet the Danes dominated the game almost at will for 50 minutes and were five goals ahead until 27:22. In the end, they lost a bit of substance and France won the match 29:28 after a furious final spurt.
On Friday, however, Nikolaj Jacobsen will again send his best players to the plate. Therefore, in the duel between Spain and Denmark, the forecast is again for a Danish victory. The world champions were almost completely spared positive test results in Hungary. Only veteran Hand Lindberg is still in quarantine.
The squad of Denmark:
Goal: N. Landin, Green, Möller
Back: Lauge, Mensah Larsen, Möllgaard, M. Hansen, Andersson, Mensing, Holm, Kirkelökke, Gidsel
Left wing: M. Landin, E. Jakobsen
Right wing: Svan, Lindberg
Circle: Antonsen, Saugstrup, Toft Hansen, Hald
Coach: N. Jakobsen
Last matches played by Denmark:
European Championships Main Round Grp. 1
01/26 2022 – Denmark 29 – 30 France
01/24 2022 – Denmark 35 – 23 Netherlands
01/22 2022 – Denmark 27 – 25 Croatia
01/20 2022 – Denmark 28 – 24 Iceland
European Championships Preliminary Round Grp. A
01/17 2022 – North Macedonia 21 – 31 Denmark
Spain – Denmark Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
From 1999 until today, there have been a total of 16 duels between the teams from Spain and Denmark. The Vikings have fared much better overall and are 11-5 winners over that period. This is the third time in a row that these two teams have faced each other in the semi-finals of a major tournament, following the 2021 World Cup in Egypt and the Tokyo Olympics.
The last four duels have all gone to the Danes. However, the Vikings have never won by more than four goals and, with one exception, have never scored more than 50 goals in the last five matches. The last meeting was around six months ago, when Denmark won 27:23 in the semi-finals at the Olympics in Tokyo.
Spain – Denmark Tip
There is no evidence that the Danes pulled out the pace at the end in their defeat to France to meet Spain in the semifinals. After all, the Vikings won against the Iberians in the preliminary round at the 2021 World Cup and subsequently at the Olympic Games. They also have four wins in a row against the Spaniards recently.
However, the tendency in the match between Spain and Denmark is clearly towards a Danish success.
But we think it will still be reasonably close. Denmark have won by a maximum of four goals in their last four victories against the Iberians. Furthermore, there are usually no more than 50 goals between these two teams. So there are two possible picks or a combination of both. However, we have decided to play the betting odds on a handicap win (+4.5) for the European champions between Spain and Denmark
