Will the Doncic show go on?
It’s not only the top stars from the NBA who leave their mark on EURO Basket 2022, but it’s precisely those who do so to a special degree. Luka Doncic is one of them. The Slovenian delivers in every game and wants to lead the defending champions to the semi-finals again on Wednesday. The opponents will be the team from Poland, for whom the quarter-final is the biggest success since the European Championship in 1997.
But the Slovenians are also the clear favourites in this quarter-final. Even though they showed a few signs of weakness against Bosnia in the group stage, the reigning European champions have always been able to go one better when the chips were down. The word formality may not do justice to a European Championship quarter-final, but everything would have to go wrong if the Slovenians were to be eliminated on Wednesday.
In this quarter-final between Slovenia and Poland, the prediction can only go to a victory for the defending champions. The question will be whether and for how long the Poles can keep this match open and thus possibly sniff at a surprise.
The Poles have played a good tournament so far. But the match against Serbia showed that the Eastern Europeans can’t even keep up with the top teams and big tournament favourites. Therefore, it will be important to find a tip with a suitable handicap win for the European champions in this duel between Slovenia and Poland
Slovenia – Statistics & current form
If you look purely at the statistics of the individual players, Luka Doncic not only has the best chances to be voted into the All-Star team of this EURO Basket. One can also very well imagine the Slovenian as MVP of the entire event. This title was snatched away from him at the last European Championships in 2017 by his teammate Goran Dragic.
Doncic unstoppable
On average, the Dallas Mavericks superstar has thrown up 28 points. Only his Greek counterpart Giannis Antetokounmpo is still just ahead of him in this statistic. In terms of steals, Luka Doncic is even number one in the entire tournament. Maybe you should take a look at the odds for more than 27.5 points of the Slovenian point guard in the duel between Slovenia and Poland.
Of the six games at this EURO Basket, the Slovenians have won five, including against France, Lithuania and Germany. Surprisingly, the only defeat came in the brotherly duel against Bosnia. Whenever it mattered, however, the European champions knew how to step up, including in the round of 16 against surprisingly unpleasant Belgians, who were on a par for a long time.
Nine minutes before the end of the game, the red devils from Belgium were still ahead 64-63, but then the Slovenians managed a 19-1 run. Luka Doncic, with his 35 points, once again played a decisive role in the 88-72 victory, which in the end sounds much more confident than it was. A similar match will await the Slovenians against the Poles. Luka Doncic could probably do with a little more scoring support.
Predicted line-up of Slovenia:
G. Dragic, Samar, Rupnik, Nikolic, Prepelic, Muric, Tobey, Blazic, Dimec, Z. Dragic, Cancar, Doncic – Coach: Sekulic
Poland – Statistics & current form
The Poles have already had the luck of the draw at this EURO Basket. In the preliminary round, the team of Croatian coach Igor Milicic had to travel to Prague and did not have to travel very far to the playoffs in Berlin. Besides, the group with the Czech Republic, Finland, Israel and Holland as well as the round of 16 against Ukraine were all easy tasks.
Win or clear defeat
With the exception of the clear 59:89 defeat against Finland, the Poles have actually shown what could be expected in all games. With 4:2 victories, the Polish team has proven its good form. Against the co-favourites for the title from Serbia, there was also a heavy defeat with 69:96. We can imagine that it will be similar on Wednesday and therefore give a prediction for a clear victory of the defending champions between Slovenia and the Poles.
Captain Mateusz Ponitka, Michal Sokolowski and AJ Slaughter are the three players to keep an eye on in this quarter-final. These three players determine the statistics of the Polish team. Slaughter and Ponitka were also the best scorers in the round of 16 against Ukraine, where two teams met on equal terms.
Throughout the match, neither team was able to break away. At the break, the Ukrainians were two points ahead and it remained close until the end of the third quarter. It was not until the last period that the Poles were able to pull away with nine points before the Ukrainians came back to within two, but in the last seconds the Polish team made use of their chances and won in the end with 94:86.
Predicted line-up of Poland:
Zyskowski, Balcerowski, Sokolowski, Cel, Slaughter, Ponitka, Kolenda, Dziewa, Olejniczak, Michalak, Garbacz, Schenk – Coach: Milicic
Slovenia – Poland Direct comparison / H2H-balance
There have only been eight duels between the national teams from Slovenia and Poland. The Slovenians are one of the successor teams from the former Yugoslavia, where basketball was the national sport, and therefore Slovenians, Croats, Serbs or Bosnians are still strong selection teams today. Accordingly, the reigning European champions have a clear lead in their record against the Poles.
All in all, the Slovenians are 7:1 victors. The only Polish victory came at the EURO Basket 2013, in Slovenia of all places, when the Poles won 71-61. The last encounter was a little more than a year ago. The two teams met at the Olympic qualifying tournament in Lithuania. The Slovenians did not give the Poles the slightest chance in a 112:77 victory.
Slovenia – Poland tip
The Slovenians will not want to let the underdogs from Poland stop them on their way to defending their title. With 7:1 victories, the direct comparison speaks more than clearly in favour of the reigning European champions, who outclassed the Poles just over a year ago with a difference of 35 points. Therefore, we expect to see Luka Doncic’s team again in the semi-finals.
The Poles showed at this EURO Basket what you could expect from them. They either won or lost big. There will be a tendency for another clear defeat on Wednesday, because the Slovenians should be superior at the moment.
From our point of view, the only question is how big the Slovenian victory will be. If Luka Doncic is really up for this duel over four quarters, then it could be a disaster for the Polish team. In the end, we decided to play the betting odds on a Slovenian handicap win (-14.5) between Slovenia and Poland.
