The Balkan thriller in the water polo final

It’s madness what happened in the men’s water polo tournament in Paris. It doesn’t seem to matter what happens in the preliminary round. The only thing that seems to matter is getting out of the group. From the quarter-finals onwards, the cards will be reshuffled and then all eight teams will apparently have the same chances of winning gold. Our Serbia vs Croatia betting tip shows that it is an expected, but somehow also surprising final match

For decades, the Serbian and Croatian water polo teams have been among the best the sport has to offer. In the group stage, both teams still had their problems at the Aquatic Center. At the end of the preliminary round, however, they moved to the large La Defense Arena, where the swimming competitions were completed, and it seems that the great atmosphere with 17,000 spectators had a positive effect on the performances of the Serbs and Croats.

In the preliminary round, both teams only just made the play-offs in fourth place out of six teams. At that point, it was not even necessarily expected that these two teams would reach the semi-finals. But now they are even in the final. It is a repeat of the final in Rio de Janeiro in 2016, when the Serbs came out on top. This year, it’s difficult to make the right prediction in the duel between Serbia and Croatia

In our view, it’s a completely open game in which both teams will have their chances of winning Olympic gold in the end. The Serbs want to win the hat-trick of titles at the Olympics. The last time the Hungarians achieved this was in Sydney 2000 and Beijing 2008

Serbia – statistics & current form

The Serbs have won everything as Yugoslavia. As an independent nation, they have won titles at World Championships, European Championships and, most recently, two Olympic gold medals in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 and Tokyo in 2021. And as a parallel, it cannot be overlooked that the preliminary round was not particularly successful on either occasion. In 2016, they finished fourth in the group stage to win gold and in 2021 they only managed third place in the group

No sign of a place in the final

It has not been a good year so far for the Serbian Dolphins, who only finished seventh at the European Championships in Croatia and only fared marginally better a month later with sixth place at the World Championships in Qatar. What’s more, they suffered a defeat against Montenegro in their preparations for the Summer Games and have not even been in the pool against a top team

In Paris, they only managed two wins in five games in the group stage. This included a flattering 16:15 win against the underdogs from Japan. There was an unexpected defeat against Australia. In the meantime, the current record of three wins from the last four games is already impressive. Somehow this may also have had something to do with the luck of the draw.

They beat Greece 12:11 in the quarter-finals. The Hellenes have a team that is strong, but basically never in contention for the title. In the semi-finals, they then went up against the United States, when the Dolphins prevailed 10:6. With Hrvatska now actually the biggest pound in the playoffs and therefore we think that we would rather play the odds on a Croatian victory between Serbia and Croatia

Predicted line-up of Serbia:
Filipovic, Misovic – Mandic, S. Rasovic, Randelovic, Cuk, Dedovic, Drasovic, N. Jaksic, Ubovic, Vico, P. Jaksic, V. Rasovic – Coach: Stevanovic

Croatia – Statistics & current form

2024 is a year full of highlights in water polo, with the Olympic Games being the third major tournament. This means that the coaches of the national teams have not necessarily always fielded their best team, at least at the European Championships in January and the World Championships in February. But if any team has risen to the challenge this year, it’s the Croatian Barracudas.

Third final in 2024 for Croatia

In January, they only lost to Spain in the final and missed out on the European Championship title on home soil. However, Ivica Tucak’s team got their consolation a month later in Doha, when the Croatians secured their third World Cup title after 2007 and 2017. With the knowledge that they had already done well at two championships, they could travel to Paris with a broad chest

As world champions, they are also generally regarded as one of the favorites at the Olympic Games, especially as they had almost only lost to Spain in the run-up to this year. However, they only managed fourth place in the group stage in Paris after being beaten by Italy and the USA. However, the Barracudas managed to shake off the Spain curse in the quarter-finals and Hrvatska defeated the European champions 10:8.

In the semi-finals, the record Olympic champions from Hungary were a tough opponent. But when you have Marko Bijac in goal, you don’t have much to fear. The keeper saved no fewer than three penalty throws and was not beaten at all in the final quarter. In addition, Loren Fatovic alone was responsible for five goals in the 9:8 win

Predicted line-up for Croatia:
Bijac, Popadic – Buric, Fatovic, Loncar, Jokovic, Bukic, Vukicevic, Zuvela, Marinic Kragic, Vrlic, Biljaka, Kharkov – Coach: Tucak

Serbia – Croatia head-to-head / H2H result

The Croats embody pure world class in water polo. That’s why there aren’t many teams with a positive record against the Barracudas. Apart from Hungary and Spain, only the Serbian team can make that claim. To date, there have been 48 neighborly duels. In direct comparison, the Serbs are ahead with 27:18 victories. Eight games ended in a draw.

Croatia’s Olympic record against Serbia, on the other hand, is encouraging for the reigning world champions. The score there is 2:1 in favor of Hrvatska after victories. However, the Serbs won the 2016 Olympic final in Rio. There has only been one duel so far this year. In the quarter-finals of the World Cup, Croatia won 15:13 in Doha in mid-February.

Serbia – Croatia betting tip

As a neutral observer of a water polo tournament, the match between Serbia and Croatia is always the dream final. However, neither team has delivered what was expected of them up to this point in Paris. Both heavyweights only finished fourth in the group stage to reach the quarter-finals.

From our point of view, the Serbian Dolphins had the easier path to the final with matches against Greece and the USA. The world champions from Croatia, on the other hand, had to deal with the European champions from Spain and the record Olympic champions from Hungary. The Barracudas seem to be well prepared for the final, which is why we tend to place a bet on a Croatian victory in the Betano app between Serbia and Croatia

Betting on more than 19.5 goals is a double-edged sword. If Croatia’s keeper Marko Bijac is as strong as he was against Hungary in the semi-final, then it could be close. But that would be an indication that Hrvatska will win the Olympic final. We have decided to play the betting odds on a victory for the world champions between Serbia and Croatia