Who will win in the quarterback generational duel?

The term “statement wins” probably best fits what both teams delivered last week. Still, those victories are weighted enormously differently. While the 49ers beat one of the best teams in the league in the Dolphins, the Buccaneers won the “Monday Night Game” against the Saints 17-16 despite registering just three points with three minutes left in the game.

San Francisco paid dearly for their win over Miami, as quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was injured early in the game. Several broken bones in his foot indicate that the team from the Bay Area will have to do without him for the rest of the season.

So the Niners are now down to their third playmaker after the actual starting quarterback, Trey Lance, was injured on the second day of the game. Now, as in the Dolphins game, Brock Purdy takes over as “Mr. Irrelevant”, i.e. the player selected last in the 2022 draft.

Tampa Bay didn’t get much going for a long time against a strong Saints defence, which also made life difficult for San Francisco on the previous day. In the end, Tom Brady shone once again with two incredibly strong offensive series in the last five minutes of the game.

In the San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers duel, in which the betting odds are tipping in favour of the home side, there will now also be a clash between playmakers Purdy and Brady. Purdy is just 22 years old, while Brady has 22 NFL seasons under his belt.

San Francisco 49ers – Statistics & current form

For that very reason, there will be plenty of nervousness on the playmaker’s part when he gets to lead the Niners onto the field from the start for the first time. The question inevitably arises: Will this nervousness have an effect on the 49ers vs. Buccaneers duel? A prediction that the good visitors’ defence can present him with problems does not seem to be an unrealistic scenario.

How good is Purdy?

The “Mr. Irrelevant” is suddenly more than relevant in California. Against the Dolphins, after being thrown in at the deep end, he executed head coach Kyle Shanahan’s gameplan perfectly, leading the offense to 30 points. Against the Bucs, he will now face a statically better pass defence than last time and therefore the task will be even more difficult for the rookie quarterback.

If the home side wants to attack a weakness of the visitors, they should try to use the running game. Despite the injured Elijah Mitchell, they are very well staffed at the position with Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason. Mason in particular, who was not selected in the draft but came into the league as an undrafted rookie, hinted at his tremendous qualities with 6.4 yards per run attempt against the Dolphins. If he manages to score his first touchdown in the home game of his 49ers vs. Buccaneers, great odds can be pocketed.

There is no need to reiterate how strong the defensive line is. They held the top-2 passing offense to just 17 points last week and caused four turnovers. In the last five games, all of which the Niners won, they conceded an average of just 11.4 points.

When the defence is attacked by the passing game, it still looks vulnerable from time to time, and in our eyes, that’s what makes the matchup between the 49ers and Buccaneers exciting. A bet on the league’s best defence holding the visitors to under 19 points brings odds of 1.55 at bookmaker Bet365.

Key Players:
QB: Brock Purdy
RB: Christian McCaffrey
WR: Deebo Samuel
TE: George Kittle
K: Robbie Gould

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Statistics & current form

Less than 19 points is a good keyword, as Tampa Bay only reached that mark at all in half of their games. Even though comparisons to the previous year are always a bit lame in the NFL, the difference is striking. So far this season, the Bucs are averaging 18.1 points, twelve fewer per game than in the previous season.

Computable Offense

Last week, the Buccaneers managed almost nothing offensively for the entire game. After the field goal they scored on their first offensive series, seven more offensive series followed with a total of 149 yards of space gained and two turnovers. Only one of these series even went into the opponent’s half.

That performance was almost emblematic of what the offense presented for much of the season. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has the worst running game in the entire league, which means that the offence is easy to count on.

However, with quarterback Tom Brady and the multitude of pass receiving options, they often compensate well for the inefficient running game. With the best rushing defence waiting in the upcoming 49ers vs. Buccaneers matchup, the prediction that the Bucs offense will be even more dependent on the passing game is extremely logical.

Defensively, Tampa Bay will likely focus on keeping the home side’s running game in check. If they can do that, the rookie quarterback on the Niners side will have to throw the ball at some point, and when he does, it’s not likely he’ll be able to stay mistake-free for the entire game.

Key Players:
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Leonard Fournette
WR: Mike Evans
TE: Cade Otton
K: Ryan Succop

San Francisco 49ers – Tampa Bay Buccaneers Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Since Brady has been the playmaker for the Florida franchise, there has not been a matchup between the two teams. In 2019, the last duel, on the first day of play, took place at “Raymond James Stadium”, which the Niners won 31:17. At the end of the season, the Californians entered the Super Bowl.

In total, the Niners have won 72% of the 25 encounters so far. If the San Francisco 49ers beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers again on Sunday night at “Levi’s Stadium”, odds of up to 1.55 on the 19th win for the franchise from the West Coast are possible.

San Francisco 49ers – Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tip

The 49ers are an absolute wildcard with rookie quarterback Purdy and no one is currently able to predict how far they can go with him this season. Do they even qualify for the playoffs and if so, how far can they get there? The Seahawks are breathing down their necks in the NFC West Division and therefore they should not afford any slip-ups. However, for the visitors it is just as much about winning the division.

Like the bookmakers, we expect a low-scoring game, but between the 49ers and Buccaneers we’re still betting that both teams will score at least 15 points.

Despite the very uneven line-up at the playmaker position, the Niners are the more complete of the two teams in comparison. That’s why we believe they can celebrate their sixth win in a row.