Will the Niners live up to their clear favorite status?
The Niners are back! The team from the Bay Area put their three-game losing streak behind them and, fresh off a bye week, picked up a win in Florida over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are also back on the road to success – after four consecutive defeats – after shining in their home game against the Titans last week, their first win since the beginning of October.
Now, of course, the question before the head-to-head clash is who will stay on the winning track. Between the 49ers and Buccaneers, our betting tip, just as clearly as the bookmakers’, tends towards the home side, who are also favorites on the markets by up to 11.5 points.
The performance in Jacksonville resembled the encounters of the first five game weeks. The team from the Bay Area dominated its opponent on both sides of the ball, offensively and defensively. They scored at least 30 points themselves for the sixth time this season and the strong defense only allowed three points. The lowest ever
Head coach Todd Bowles’ team was not as dominant, but still held Tennessee in check by a clear 20-6 margin. For the second time this season, the defensive unit allowed fewer than ten points and with an average of just 19.2 points allowed, it is also one of the top 8 in the league. So can the spectators at Levi’s Stadium expect a low-scoring game on Sunday evening because the defenses dominate? Between the 49ers and Buccaneers, this prediction is definitely appealing
San Francisco 49ers – stats & current form
Can this be called a statement win, what the Shanahan team put on in Jacksonville? The 6-2 Jaguars, who had won five straight games, were nearly eaten up by the California defense. The unit didn’t allow 200 passing yards and sacked Trevor Lawrence five times. That was the total number of sacks the Steve Wilks-coached personnel group collected in the previous three games. In the days leading up to the game in Florida, Wilks’ move from the coaching box to the sideline was a recurring theme, and that also seems to have provided an additional motivational boost.
But this is not the only reason for the upturn in the defense. It can also be attributed to the combined Ohio State pass-rush duo of Nick Bosa and Chase Young. The impact of the pass rush, which put constant pressure on the opposing quarterback and forced him to make mistakes, was unmistakable. In addition to the sacks, the unit also forced two interceptions and two fumbles.
Returners provide offensive boost
In addition, the offense with returnees Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel worked excellently again and quarterback Brock Purdy continued the performance of the first five weeks. With this offense and defense, the Niners are once again a candidate to win the Super Bowl.
The only downer for the team from the Bay Area was Christian McCaffrey last week. He failed to score a touchdown in his 18th consecutive NFL game, but he will be all the more motivated going into the upcoming matchup.
Key Players:
- QB: Brock Purdy
- RB: Christian McCaffrey
- WR: Deebo Samuel
- TE: George Kittle
- K: Jake Moody
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Statistics & current form
Pundits had little faith in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before the season, with the retirement of Tom Brady leaving a vacant quarterback position. However, the franchise seems to have made a good choice in playmaker Baker Mayfield and three wins from the first four weeks of play are testament to this. However, the bye week in week five was followed by a slump, resulting in four wins and five losses. Nevertheless, anything is still possible in the NFC South, as New Orleans is at the top of the division with a 5-5 record and a one-win lead.
Offense too one-dimensional
An issue that limited the Bucs’ offensive output – even back in the Tom Brady days – is omnipresent again this year. The Florida franchise’s running game remains one of the worst units in the league. On average, they only manage to gain 78.1 yards on the ground per game, meaning that only the Bengals have fewer rushing yards per game. In addition, the rushing game is also the most ineffective in the league with only 3.1 yards per attempt. Incidentally, all three rushing touchdowns were scored by 2nd-year running back Rachaad White.
In order to compensate for that, a lot of production through the air is needed and this offense gets that on a regular basis. 14 touchdowns with five interceptions means a top-10 spot for Mayfield in the touchdown-interception ranking. The Bowles team’s most important receivers are unsurprisingly Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, with Evans in particular excelling with six touchdown catches so far.
Defensively – within the position group – worlds collide: The run defense allows opponents an average of only 87.2 yards, which is almost on par with the rushing defense of the upcoming opponent. However, the passing defense is more susceptible than almost any other unit in the NFL. And between the 49ers and Buccaneers, the fact that the home side will attack with their playmakers is a prediction that we would sign 100 percent.
Key Players:
- QB: Baker Mayfield
- RB: Rachaad White
- WR: Mike Evans
- TE: Cade Otton
- K: Chase McLaughlin
San Francisco 49ers – Tampa Bay Buccaneers head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The team from California clearly leads the series of direct duels with 19-8 victories and could therefore bag its 20th win against the franchise from Florida on Sunday. The last meeting last season between the San Francisco 49ers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ended 35-7. A tip that it will be that clear again is by no means out of the air due to the conditions described above.
San Francisco 49ers – Tampa Bay Buccaneers betting tip
When the 49ers host the Buccaneers, the odds for a home win are of course anything but attractive. If you still want to bet on them, you have to push them with either a handicap or total points bet.
Our main recommendation for this game goes in a different direction: We trust the Shanahan team’s offense to score at least 25 points again, so we don’t think it’s out of the question that they’ll score at least one in every quarter. We are exercising caution with five seeded units, but the value still justifies the bet. Incidentally, the Niners have already achieved this five times in their nine games this season.
Despite the strong defense, we expect the team from Tampa to score at least one touchdown and because there will be little movement in the rushing game, a bet on a touchdown catch by Mike Evans is a good bet.
