Offensive spectacle at the start of Week 3 in Santa Clara?
As die-hard NFL fans know, the game day starts with the “Thursday Night Game” – and that takes place this week in California. More precisely at “Levi’s Stadium” in Santa Clara. The San Francisco 49ers are the clear favourites to host the New York Giants. A bet on the home side, however, does not yield enough value. Nevertheless, we have looked around on the markets and – as you are used to from Wettbasis – we have found what we were looking for.
It was a hard work in the California duel for the team from the Bay Area! The Niners won 30-20 against their division rivals from Los Angeles and are now 2-0 at the top of the NFC West. However, the performance did not come close to the performance of week one and so the result belies the fact that the game seemed to be open for a long time and that some mistakes crept in both offensively and defensively.
Without question: The Giants from the “Big Apple” were one of the surprises of the NFL last season. After the first game and the first half last week, however, it looked more like they would become the disappointment of the still early season. But then they turned things around against Arizona after a 7:28 halftime score and won 31:28 in the end.
Nevertheless, there is one piece of bad news and that ensures that the task in “Levi’s Stadium” on Friday morning at 2:15 a.m. German time will be anything but easy. Although the 49ers and Giants offer very attractive odds for a win by the visitors, we refrain from making such a recommendation. Despite some starting points for the NY offence.
San Francisco 49ers – Statistics & current form
The win over the Rams was the 12th in a row for Kyle Shanahan’s team, at least if only regular season games are considered. That’s the second-longest winning streak in history for the franchise, which has been around since 1946, and so the last regular-season loss dates back to Oct. 23, 2022. Can they add another win to that impressive streak? When the 49ers host the Giants, the prediction is of course anything but far-fetched, also due to the convincing start to the season.
Purdy’s weakest NFL performance
It’s a somewhat impressive statistic that Brock Purdy – 24 years old and the Mr. Irrelevant (i.e. as pick 262) of the 2022 draft class – has yet to lose a game as the Niners’ starting quarterback in the regular season. His only loss came in the playoffs against the Philadelphia Eagles in January, when he had to leave the field with an injury. He fully recovered from that injury in the offseason and returned to the field at full strength. Against the Rams last week, however, he had a bad day, not throwing a single touchdown pass and overthrowing open receivers several times.
But he wasn’t the only player who wasn’t quite on top of his game, as the defence also had its problems, especially in half time one. They allowed 17 points by the break and too often simply couldn’t get the opposing receivers under control. In addition, the running game for LA worked better than expected. After some adjustments by coordinator Steve Wilks at the break, the defence showed a different face. They created two turnovers and stopped the Rams’ offence to the extent that they only managed two field goals.
Offensively, it was the expected names that moved the ball for San Francisco. Only five different receivers threw to Purdy, who himself added a rushing touchdown via “quarterback sneak”. It was noticeable that he had confidence in Juan Jennings several times in critical situations, with a target depth of 25.5 yards, well above all other pass receivers.
Key Players:
- QB: Brock Purdy
- RB: Christian McCaffrey
- WR: Deebo Samuel
- TE: George Kittle
- K: Jake Moody
New York Giants – Statistics & current form
It was the comeback of the game day and yet there were some worry lines on the faces of Giants officials after the win over Arizona. These were due to the injury to Saquon Barkley, who was one of the pillars of the success with 92 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Shortly before the end of the game he had to leave the field with a limp, but already on Monday this was given a slight all-clear. Nevertheless, his use in the 49ers vs. Giants game is uncertain. We therefore refrain from making a prediction as to whether he will be able to play or not.
With this injury, however, the chances of backup running back Matt Breida getting to his Revenge Game increase. He played for the Californians between 2017 and 2019, had his – statistically – best time there and then didn’t find happiness in either Miami or Buffalo. If Barkley is indeed out, he will have plenty of work to do. But New York has one additional wild card in the run game: QB Daniel Jones. The mobile playmaker currently leads the league in rushing yards (among quarterbacks) with 102 yards after two games.
The offense has found itself
Strictly speaking, only one team played in halftime two in Arizona last week and that was the Giants, who looked like they had changed. Offensively, Jones got more involved in the run game, and he also got support from his pass receivers. Tight end Darren Waller had a strong game, as did wide receivers Darius Slayton and rookie Jalin Hyatt. With the upcoming opponent’s pass defence looking vulnerable in the first two weeks, a bet on at least one passing touchdown from Jones between the 49ers and Giants should not be discounted.
New York conceded 40 points against Dallas and 28 against Arizona. Positively speaking, the trend is right, but now a nominally stronger offence awaits. That’s exactly why it wouldn’t be surprising if the home side scratched the 30-point mark again. The Over/Under for the hosts is 27.5 points.
Key Players:
- QB: Daniel Jones
- RB: Saquon Barkley
- WR: Darius Slayton
- TE: Darren Waller
- K: Graham Gano
San Francisco 49ers – New York Giants Direct comparison / H2H balance
The head-to-head record shows 21 wins for each team. The last time the two franchises faced each other was in 2020 in week three at “MetLife Stadium”, where the San Francisco 49ers clearly beat the New York Giants. The odds that it will be clear again and that the Californians will win by at least eleven points are at a maximum of 1.91.
San Francisco 49ers – New York Giants Tip
But will the Niners really win by eleven points? We are clearly on the side of the bookies, who see the home side clearly ahead, but feel that the handicap is too high. The Big Apple team’s offence and defence have shown themselves to be adaptable, which is why we don’t expect the home side to run away with the result.
We see the mobile quarterback in particular as a possible kryptonite for the Niners defence, which has always struggled against this type of playmaker in the past. That’s why we see plenty of value in betting that New York can put at least 17 points on the scoreboard at Levi’s Stadium on Thursday night. Between the 49ers and Giants, the betting odds are only just below the 2.00 mark. That’s exactly why we’re picking this as our main recommendation and playing it with six units.
The statistics of the “Thursday Night Games” actually argue against exceeding the set over/under limit of 45 points, as last year only seven of the 19 TNF matches ended with more than that total. However, we see it as quite realistic that this mark will be broken in the upcoming duel.
