Do the Rams make up for their home defeat?
“Monday Night is California Night” on NFL game day no.10, because on Monday Night Game the San Francisco 49ers welcome their “neighbours” from Los Angeles for a California duel. In the last two years, this was always a festive day for all Niners fans.
In the two previous seasons, the 49ers won all head-to-head duels by at least three points. This season, however, the balance of power is clearly different and the Rams are considered the clear favourites.
With the signing of Von Miller during the week, the Rams have once again made it clear that the Super Bowl is the only thing that counts for them this season. On paper, there is no better team than head coach Sean McVay’s men.
It is astonishing that they are still only in third place in the odds on a Super Bowl triumph. Here, bets on LA are still enormously worthwhile at the current time. For 49ers vs. Rams, our forecast also goes in the direction of LA. They should finally be able to win a game in San Francisco again.
Kickoff of the Monday Night Game of NFL Week 10 is on Tuesday night at 02:15 in San Francisco and the game will be broadcast live on DAZN with German commentary.
San Francisco 49ers – Statistics & current form
The San Francisco 49ers’ record at home reads like a horror story. They have 0-4 wins there so far, making them the only team in the NFL besides the Eagles and the Lions without a home win.
Of course, they won’t make the playoffs – especially not in the strong NFC West. They are currently in last place with a 3-5 record and the road to the postseason is very long and rocky, even if the remaining schedule seems feasible.
Turnover vulnerability as a big problem
Most of all, the Niners keep shooting themselves in the foot with their ball losses. They are already at -9 in this statistic – the second weakest value in the league. Six interceptions and eight lost fumbles speak for themselves.
This means that their opponents often have a short field in front of them and can score easily. A point ratio of -17 confirms this problem. All other teams in the division have a positive point ratio.
Jimmy Garoppolo not bad, but not good either
A constant in terms of mediocrity is also quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who is currently getting preference over rookie Trey Lance again. His 93.5 points in passer rating mean 15th place among all quarterbacks – mediocre.
In QB rating, which also includes the running game, he ranks only 23rd with 48.7. If Jimmy G doesn’t improve significantly, he won’t make the playoffs or win against the Rams on Monday.
For San Francisco vs. Los Angeles, a tip against the 49ers is therefore more promising. Even though we think their defence will take a step forward compared to the last three games (27.7 conceded points on average).
Key Players:
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo
RB: Eli Mitchell
WR: Deebo Samuel
TE: Ross Dwelley
K: Robbie Gould
Los Angeles Rams – stats & current form
The Rams continue to go all-in. After signing Odell Beckham Jr. they also signed pass rusher Von Miller from the Denver Broncos during the week. Miller and Donald on one team. What seemed unthinkable until recently is now becoming a reality and the NFL’s quarterbacks can get warm.
But does that automatically make the Rams the No. 1 favourite for the Super Bowl? For the betting public, absolutely. Even if OBJ and Miller will certainly need a few games to really get going – no team wants to play the Rams in the playoffs for sure.
Reaction likely after home loss
Their last game, however, was a setback in the battle for the best record in the NFC, losing 16-28 at home to the Titans. As nasty as it sounds, that loss was also in large part due to Matthew Stafford.
When a team has 347 to 197 yards at the end of the game, it has to win. But not if it loses more balls. And those were the two interceptions Stafford threw, which also came at extremely inopportune times.
However, the Rams should be stable enough to fight back right away – including Matthew Stafford. With a passer rating of 111.0 points on average here, he still ranks second in the entire NFL. One off game shouldn’t throw him off his game.
Does the defence find its old strength again?
Their defence will have to step it up too, as they have conceded over 20 points in each of their last two games – even against the Texans! However, we expect them to hold the 49ers below that 20-point mark on Monday.
Thus, with 49ers vs. Rams, the odds on under points are also an alternative. We generate the best value if we combine a Rams win with subpar points. Then we get odds of up to 3.00 (Bet365).
Key Players:
QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Darrell Henderson
WR: Robert Woods
WR: Cooper Kupp
K: Matt Gay
San Francisco 49ers – Los Angeles Rams Direct comparison / H2H record
The direct record of these two teams (in the last two years) is surprisingly in favour of the 49ers. They managed four wins in a row. But then the Niners were also a team that was able to reach the Super Bowl in the end.
They are currently far from that consistency and apart from a close game, we don’t have much confidence in them on Monday. With San Francisco also allowing 131.6 yards per game on the ground (sixth weakest in the NFL), the matchup doesn’t suit them.
The Rams are so very good at setting up big plays via the run game and then serving Cooper Kupp or OBJ with long passes. So in 49ers vs Rams, our prediction is a win for the away team from LA.
San Francisco 49ers – Los Angeles Rams Tip
The facts in a nutshell: The Rams are clearly stronger than the 49ers both offensively and defensively this season. Offensively, they score 5.9 points more, defensively they allow 3.5 points less. This defensive strength in particular should be on display again on Monday.
Because after their collapse against Tennessee, they will be hot to clearly improve here. For 49ers vs. Rams, a tip at good betting odds on LA in combination with subpar points is therefore our very clear betting recommendation.
Betting on a Cooper Kupp touchdown is also an option. He already has 1019 yards and ten touchdowns this season, making him the NFL’s best wide receiver in both areas.
