Who will win the California duel?
The team from California’s fourth-largest city, San Francisco, went through their break last week and are expecting some key players back after this one. The Chargers, on the other hand, who are based a few hundred kilometres further away, celebrated their fourth victory in their fifth game.
Now both teams meet each other directly to open the second half of the season and in the game 49ers vs. Chargers the odds are very clearly distributed. The odds are in favour of the home side, even though Los Angeles have one more win on their record with a 5-3 record.
The game will take place on Sunday night at 2:20 a.m. as the “Sunday Night Game” at “Levi Stadium” in Santa Clara.
San Francisco 49ers – Statistics & current form
The San Francisco 49ers were hungry for the bye week like hardly any other team. The reason for this was a multitude of injured players. As of last Monday, wide receiver Deebo Samuel, fullback Kyle Juszczyk and cornerback Jason Verrett, among others, are back at team practice.
Statement win before “bye week “
Without the players listed, the Niners celebrated their fourth win of the season before the break in play. It was their second win of the year against the Los Angeles Rams, which may give them a decided advantage in what is likely to be a tight NFC West division. In his second game in a 49ers jersey, newcomer Christian McCaffrey put his stamp on the game, becoming the first player since 2005 to record a passing, rushing and receiving touchdown.
The previously criticised offence played very well at all levels against a Rams defence. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t make a mistake, CMC was already a force with 149 scrimmage yards and Brandon Aiyuk impressively proved he can be a clear-cut number one receiver. It was only the second 30-plus point game of the season for the offence, which has averaged 22 points so far. In the upcoming 49ers vs. Chargers duel, it is absolutely possible to predict that the over/under limit of 27.5 points will be reached by the home side. After all, the LA defence has already allowed at least 28 points to the opponent three times.
Statistically, the 49ers still have the best defence in the league, allowing an average of only 285.9 yards to the opponent. Recently, the defensive unit of the Californians had to struggle with some injury worries, but there is at least a slight easing of the situation in sight. The defence is particularly vulnerable in the passing game and that could play into the hands of the upcoming opponents.
Key Players:
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo
RB: Christian McCaffrey
WR: Deebo Samuel
TE: George Kittle
K: Robbie Gould
Los Angeles Chargers – Statistics & current form
The Niners are in sixth place in the conference with their four wins, putting them squarely in the wild-card race in the NFC. The Chargers, on the other hand, despite one more win, are currently only in eighth place in the AFC and, as of now, would receive the last possible wild card. That fact alone says a lot about this year’s distribution of strength in the two conferences. In their division, the AFC West, LA is one win behind the Kansas City Chiefs.
Major pillars of the offense are missing
It’s been a common thread throughout the season. Despite the wins, the bland aftertaste in Chargers games remains that the offense is not playing to its full potential. Part of the truth is that LA once again fails to get all available playmakers on the field together. In last week’s win over the Falcons, two hugely important pass receivers, Keenen Allen and Mike Williams, were again missing.
In their absence, Josh Palmer shined, catching balls for over 100 yards for the first time in his NFL career. Last season he totalled 33 receptions and 353 yards in 17 games, and this year he stands at 34 passing catches for 346 yards after seven games. With both Allen’s and Williams’ returns in doubt, he will once again play a supporting role at “Levi Stadium”.
Despite the injury concerns on offense, LA has a top-4 passing offense and that’s exactly what it will need between the 49ers and Chargers. According to our forecast, the visitors only have a realistic chance if they can consistently move the ball through the air. Against the best rushing defence in the league, which they will face in this matchup, it will be difficult to advance the ball via the run game.
Key Players:
QB: Justin Hebert
RB: Austin Ekeler
WR: Mike Williams
TE: Gerald Everett
K: Dustin Hopkins
San Francisco 49ers – Los Angeles Chargers Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
In 15 head-to-head meetings, the Niners have won seven times and LA eight times. The last five meetings between 2002 and 2018 were all won by Los Angeles, making it just under 22 years since the 49ers beat the Chargers. A bet on this series coming to an end is offering odds of up to 1.33 at the top.
In the last encounter, C.J. Beatheard and Philip Rivers were two completely different playmakers on both sides. One more reason not to use the last results to draw conclusions for the upcoming match.
The offensive point output of both teams is almost on par, as the 49ers scored an average of 22 and the Chargers 23 points in eight games. However, the Niners’ defence allowed an average of 21.1, over four points less than the LA defence.
While the now-appointed over/under threshold of 46.5 points was only ever reached twice in games involving the Bay Area franchise, 62.5% of Chargers matchups ended with more points.
San Francisco 49ers – Los Angeles Chargers Tip
The bookmakers give the guests a handicap of seven points and the role of favourite to the home side. After the convincing performance against the Rams a fortnight ago, especially offensively, coupled with the return of several key players, this is quite justified. In addition, Christian McCaffrey will pose huge problems for LA’s weak run defence. Last but not least, the personnel failures in the Chargers’ offence continue to weigh heavily.
We therefore believe that a win with at least an eight-point difference for the 49ers vs. Chargers is worth a tip. The Niners have won each of their four games by more than an eight-point differential and the Chargers have lost by more points twice already this season.
Despite this, we believe both teams can score and thus put at least 15 points each on the scoreboard. The best case scenario between the 49ers and Chargers is odds of 1.74.
