Win or Fly
Just one matchday has been played at the European Water Polo Championships in Split and the German team already has its back against the wall. The last 16 was the minimum target and already before the second match on Wednesday against Romania it is clear: If the German team does not win this match, they will only play for places 13-16, just like at the World Championships in Hungary.
World champion Spain is out of this Group C anyway. We can assume that the Iberians will win all their group games and go straight into the quarter-finals as winners. This means that Germany, Holland and Romania will fight it out for the second and third places, which will ensure their entry into the round of 16.
But after Germany lost their opening match against the Dutch, a win against Romania is absolutely necessary. With a little luck, a draw could be enough, but Petar Porobic’s team should not rely on that. Before the match between Romania and Germany, we dare to predict that the DSV men will not be able to go beyond fourth place in this preliminary round.
After the defeat against the World Champions, the tournament is just getting started for the Romanian water polo players and we think that in the duel between Romania and Germany, a bet on another German defeat should probably be the better choice.
Romania – Statistics & current form
The Romanians are certainly not a major power in water polo, but whenever they show up at a major tournament, they deliver solid performances. At European Championships, the Romanian team has never finished worse than eleventh. With a win on Wednesday against Germany, at least that ranking would be almost assured.
Ordinary performance against the world champions
The record of the last international matches must be read with caution. Although the Romanians have won three of their last four games, they have also faced Malta, Ireland and Lithuania. These results do not mean that the odds on a win for Bogdan Rath’s team between Romania and Germany should be taken into account.
In the first European Championship match on Monday, the Romanians sold themselves very well. After all, one should not forget that the newly crowned world champions from Spain were the opponents. Although the Romanian team lost all four quarters, they fought their way more and more into the game as the match progressed. In the end, the score was a 9:16 defeat. Tudor-Andrei Fulea, Vlad-Luca Georgescu and Levente Vancsik were each successful twice and thus the best Romanian scorers.
The fact that the Romanians are no walk-ins was also evident recently in the Champions League, when Steaua Bucharest failed to secure a place in the Final Eight, but delivered some good results in the group phase. A large part of the national team is recruited from Steaua. Therefore, the team is well-rehearsed and should be a very unpleasant opponent on Wednesday.
Predicted line-up of Romania:
Tic, Mihaluta – Neamtu, Iudean, Fulea, Antipa, Prioteasa, Vranceanu, Remes, Colodrovschi, Georgescu, Vatrai, Vancsik – Coach: Rath
Germany – Statistics & current form
For several years, the German water polo team has been on the decline. While Waspo Hannover and Spandau 04 have repeatedly achieved good results in the Champions League, the national team has not. At the Olympic Games in Tokyo, they were only spectators and at the recent World Championships in Hungary, they only managed 13th place.
Sure, coach Petar Porobic is in the process of building up a new team, but if it doesn’t develop quickly, then it could well happen that they won’t be involved in some of the title competitions in the near future. Many nations have passed the German team in the meantime and therefore we would not dare to predict a German victory before the match between Romania and Germany.
The current form actually speaks volumes. In the last nine international matches, Germany conceded seven defeats. Only against Brazil and Kazakhstan were there two victories in the losers’ bracket of the World Cup. Therefore, no miracles could be expected in the first European Championship match against Holland on Monday, even though two regular players, Marko Stamm and Mateo Cuk, returned from injuries.
From the beginning nothing went right. Many easy throws were missed and so it was already 1:5 at the beginning of the second quarter. Petar Porobic’s team never really found its way into the game. The high error rate was a common thread through all four quarters and so the team suffered a severe 6:13 defeat. Zoran Bobic and Denis Strelezkij were the most successful German players with two goals each.
Predicted line-up of Germany:
Schenkel, Götz – Korbel, Cuk, Schütze, Jüngling, Strelezkij, Küppers, Stamm, Dolff, Rotermund, Gansen – Coach: Porobic
Romania – Germany Direct Comparison / H2H-Balance
Since qualifying for the London Olympics, the national teams from Romania and Germany have crossed paths a total of nine times. In this period, the direct comparison is narrowly in favour of the Romanian selection, which is 5:4 ahead after victories. As a rule, however, these were very close games that were not decided until the last quarter, and sometimes not until afterwards.
The exception is the last direct duel at the Olympic qualification tournament in February 2021 in Rotterdam. There, the Romanians won clearly with 12:7. Basically, it was an expression of the contrasting developments of both teams. In the end, both national teams were unable to punch their ticket to the Games in Tokyo.
Romania – Germany Tip
The conditions should be clear. After the heavy defeat against Holland, the German team is now forced to win against Romania. The best thing to do is to have a decent goal difference, because if Germany, Romania and Holland end up level on points, this will be decisive. If the German team loses, then the drop is gone and they will have to deal with Malta or Israel in the losers’ bracket.
The performance against the Netherlands, however, was anything but an encouragement. It was the seventh defeat in the last nine international matches. Self-confidence is at rock-bottom, making it even more difficult to make a change. It’s hard to imagine that there will be a significant improvement in performance on Wednesday.
Romania has a positive record against the German team in the last ten years and moreover won clearly against the DSV men at the qualification tournament for the Olympic Games last year. We don’t think it will be much different this time. That’s why we decided to play the betting odds on a Romanian victory between Romania and Germany.
