Will the Albatrosses surprise Madrid?
In the Basketball Euroleague, it’s once again blow by blow. While in the Bundesliga, for example, only five matchdays have passed, the reigning German champions ALBA Berlin are already on the floor for the eighth time in the most important European club competition on Thursday evening. After three victories at the start of the tournament, they have recently suffered four defeats in a row.
The probability that the fifth defeat in a row will be suffered is relatively high, because before the Real Madrid versus ALBA Berlin clash, bets on a home win for the Spaniards will be significantly lower. No wonder, because while a single-digit place in the 16-team league would be a great success for the Albatrosses, for Walter Tavares and Co. it is once again only about the title in this competition in 2022/23.
Before the Real Madrid vs. ALBA Berlin match-up, it should also be taken into account for the forecast that the Berliners have lost all of the last twelve direct duels against the Spanish basketball giants. Often even clearly.
Nevertheless, we believe that coach Israel Gonzalez’s team will have a good away game on Thursday evening. It is therefore conceivable that the home victory will not be as high as many expect. The handicap of +13.5 even puts the visitors from Germany in a promising position in our eyes.
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
With a total of ten titles at continental level, Real Madrid is one of the most successful clubs in European basketball. In 2018, the team with leader Luka Doncic was able to bring the Euroleague title to the Spanish capital for the last time. If those responsible have their way, it’s about time again. Especially against the background that the white ballet narrowly lost the final against Anadolu Efes in the preseason. The 57:58 score was two points short of the title.
Although they invested heavily in the squad in the summer and were able to sign real difference players such as Mario Hezonja, Dzanan Musa and Petr Cornelie, the start of the new season did not go completely according to plan for the Madrilenians. In the Spanish ACB, they suffered two defeats in the first seven match days. In the Euroleague, three of the seven matches so far have been lost.
Is Real taking it easy?
In the meantime, there were even rumours that coach Chus Mateo, who took over from Pablo Laso last year due to a heart attack, was about to be replaced. Bayern coach Andrea Trinchieri has been mooted as a potential successor. However, after three wins from the last four matches, some calm has returned.
Especially the two most recent performances in the Euroleague were very positive. First, they won the difficult away game in Milan at the beginning of November, followed by a home victory with a nine-point difference against the reigning title holders from Istanbul last Thursday. Despite these acceptable results and the strong offensive performances, we would not predict that the home side will win by at least 14 points in the Real Madrid vs. ALBA Berlin clash.
On the one hand, this is due to the fact that with defensive anchor Guerschon Yabusele a very important player is missing and on the other hand, because in the next eight days three more matches are on the agenda for the Madrilenians. The minutes will therefore be distributed cleverly and a lead will be managed rather than extended. We think it is unlikely that the Mateo Five will win by a landslide.
Predicted line-up of Real Madrid:
PG: Dzanan Musa
SG: Adam Hanga
SF: Mario Hezonja
PF: Gabriel Deck
C: Walter Tavares
Alba Berlin – Statistics & current form
ALBA Berlin has made a name for itself again on the international stage. Compared to many other clubs in the Euroleague, the German champions of the past three years do not have a particularly prominent squad to show for it, but a functioning style of play that has presented many opponents with enormous problems in the past.
In the current Euroleague season, the Albatrosse have already been able to pull off a few surprises. Among other things, the Berliners won by six points in Milan and outclassed Panathinaikos in front of their own fans with a difference of almost 30 (!) points. Combined with the opening win against Partizan Belgrade, the Bundesliga side were top of the standings after three matchdays.
With team basketball and ball movement to the next surprise
Lately, however, the trend has clearly been in the opposite direction. Four consecutive matches in Europe’s best basketball league were lost, but most of them narrowly. Only in Valencia did coach Israel Gonzalez’s men not reach their maximum performance and lost by 14 points. Against Anadolu (-4), Zalgiris (-7) or Bayern (-2), the yellow-blues, who have a 100% record in the domestic league with five wins from five games, kept up very well.
ALBA plays a very team-oriented basketball, which is noticeable in the assist numbers and the points scored. In both categories, the reigning German champions even rank ahead of Real Madrid. Only defensively will there be one or two miss-matches from their point of view, although with the 2.24 metre tall Christ Koumadje they have one of the few centres in Europe who can keep up with Walter Tavares in terms of length and mass.
A lot will also depend on how the personnel situation has developed one week after the last game. There is hope for the return of Maodo Lo, who could give the Albatrosses a huge push with his agility and scoring gene.
Louis Olinde has to miss out due to a thumb injury. Mattiseck and Eriksson are also unavailable. However, hardly any other team has compensated for absences as well as the Berliners. Consequently, we are looking at the odds for a good result for the visitors between Real Madrid and ALBA Berlin.
Predicted line-up of Alba Berlin:
PG: Tamir Blatt
SG: Malte Delow
SF: Yovel Zoosman
PF: Luke Sikma
C: Christ Koumadje
Real Madrid – Alba Berlin Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Twelve times the two clubs have faced each other in the Euroleague so far. Real Madrid has won all of these matches. Across the competition, the Spaniards have even landed nine home victories in a row. Last season, the Madrilenians shot the German guests out of their own hall with a difference of 23 points. With a view to the Real Madrid vs. ALBA Berlin betting odds, at least a somewhat closer course is expected this time around.
Real Madrid – Alba Berlin Tip
No other team records more assists in the Basketball Euroleague than ALBA Berlin. With a rate of almost 39% from beyond the three-point line, the Albatrosses rank second in this category and also in the Performance Index Rating, which calculates offensive strength with a special algorithm, there is only one team that stands better than the German champions.
The fact that coach Israel Gonzalez’s team has lost four times in a row in Europe’s best basketball league and has fallen back in the rankings after three victories at the start is therefore primarily due to its often too weak defence. If you want to use these statistics as an opportunity to bet on over-points between Real Madrid and ALBA Berlin, you should do quite well with this.
We try it in the duel Real Madrid vs. ALBA Berlin but with the odds on ALBA (+13.5). We play the 1.90 in the top with six units and point out that the German champions have only lost to Valencia with a 14-point difference so far. Moreover, not everything is going according to plan for the Madrilenians. Five defeats in 14 games are actually too many by Real standards. In addition, Yabusele, an important player, is absent.
