Out for the host?

The euphoria was extremely high before the Basketball World Cup at the co-host from the Philippines. The expectations of the fans were correspondingly high, with 38,115 spectators at the Philippine Arena for their team’s opening game, setting a new world record for a basketball World Cup. After two games, however, it’s clear that the home side will need a miracle on Tuesday to stay in the tournament. We look at whether they will succeed in our Philippines vs Italy betting tip.

In this Group A, there may well be some arithmetic left to play out on the final matchday. The Dominican Republic leads the standings with two wins, but is also not yet safe in the main round. Angola and Italy have one win and one loss and still have a decent chance of finishing in one of the top two places for the main round.

Gilas Pilipinas have very poor cards after two defeats, but nothing is ruled out before this last matchday. We’ll first look at the conditions under which the Italians will advance. With a win of their own, the Squadra Azzura will surely move on to the next round. Should Angola win against the Dominican Republic, these three teams would have 2:1 victories. In this constellation, the points ratio in the direct duels would count and in this one Angola and the Dominican Republic cannot both be ahead of the Italians. So the prospects are not bad and that’s why we would make a prediction on the progress of the Europeans before the match between the Philippines and Italy.

Everything would have to go right for the Philippines to advance to the next round. First of all, the host would depend on a victory of the Dominican Republic against Angola. For that, their own success against the Italians is inevitable. Only in that case would there be a direct three-way tie between the Philippines, Angola and Italy. The Africans have -4 points from the matches against these two opponents. Italy is currently at +14 and the Philippines at -10, so the Gilas Pilipinas would have to win by a 13-point difference.

Philippines – statistics & current form

The Philippines have tried to strive for the best possible result at their home World Cup. Getting into the main round should be it. But looking at the fact that four years ago at the World Cup in China, they lost five games in five and ended up in last place, the current tournament seems to be taking the expected course again for the Gilas Pilipinas this year.

Olympics as a new goal

That they will miss the jump to the main round, they have already resigned themselves to coach Chot Reyes. Qualifying for the Olympics is the remaining goal. The best Asian team at this World Cup will punch the ticket to Paris 2024. It is not unlikely that all six Asian teams will fail in the preliminary round. Then it depends for the Filipinos what happens in the placement round.

We wouldn’t be too optimistic from a Filipino perspective though. They recently suffered four defeats in a row, against Montenegro, Mexico, Angola and the Dominican Republic. All the euphoria is gone and there are already rumors in the background that coach Chot Reyes will be replaced in the short term, probably after the end of the World Cup at the latest, but a dismissal during the World Cup is also not yet off the table.

The opening defeat against the Dominican Republic in front of more than 38,000 spectators was not planned, but after a good game by the Filipinos it was within the bounds of what could be expected. In the second match against Angola, however, they were hoping for much more than to leave the board with a ten-point difference in defeat. A man of the caliber of Jordan Clarkson is not enough to set high goals at a world championship.

Philippines probable lineup:
Ravena, Clarkson, Thompson, Sotto, Malonzo, Fajardo, Pogoy, Perez, Abando, Ramos, Aguilar, Edu – Coach: Reyes

Italy – Statistics & current form

Italy coach Gianmarco Pozzecco stepped into the limelight at last year’s European Championships when, after his Italians beat Serbia in the round of 16, he gave his team his credit card and let them do whatever they wanted with it. Meanwhile, the Squadra Azzura coach still can’t control his emotions. Against the Dominican Republic, he was once again sent off, although a coaching volcano on the sidelines is exactly what Italy needs right now.

Unexpected defeat against the Dominican Republic

The start of the World Cup was rather poor. The opening match was a hard-fought 81-67 win against Angola, but it wasn’t wrapped up until the last quarter. In the second match against the Dominican Republic, the Italians suffered an unexpected 82-87 defeat with four technical fouls. The Europeans still have the jump into the main round in their own hands, but with the entry into the quarterfinals and a possible Olympic qualification it will be extremely difficult.

At the same time, the Italians were actually in dazzling shape, having already beaten the world champions from Spain this year and winning all their matches in preparation, including against Serbia and Greece. The Squadra Azzura has won eleven of the last twelve international matches. So maybe it was just a slip-up that they had to accept defeat against the team from the Caribbean at the World Cup.

Nevertheless, we assume that the Europeans will improve again on Tuesday and would therefore place a prediction on a reasonably clear Italian handicap victory between the Philippines and Italy. After all, the Italians have a very balanced squad with numerous top players of European handball. However, with Simone Fontecchio of the Utah Jazz, only one player is under contract in the NBA.

Predicted lineup of Italy:
Spissu, Tonut, Melli, Fontecchio, Ricci, Spagnolo, Polonara, Diouf, Severini, Procida, Pajola, Datome – Coach: Pozzecco

Philippines – Italy Direct comparison / H2H record

We have actually only found six games in which the national teams from the Philippines and Italy have faced each other on the record. One of those duels was actually won by the Gilas Pilipinas, at the 1936 Berlin Olympics, 87 years ago. That’s how long the Asians have been waiting for a win against the Squadra Azzura.

This means that the direct comparison of 5:1 wins is in favor of the Italians, who have usually prevailed by more than 20 points in their victories. The last encounter was four years ago at the World Cup in China. There, too, this pairing took place in the group stage and after a one-sided game, the Italians clearly kept the upper hand with 108:62.

Philippines – Italy tip

The Gilas Pilipinas will try everything again on the last matchday of this preliminary round. However, we expect that there will be the third defeat in the third World Cup match and that the host will go away without a sound as the last of this Group A. One top performer is not enough to make any great claims at a World Cup.

The Italians stumbled in their clash with the Dominican Republic after winning eleven in a row. Stumbling is allowed once, but now we expect the Squadra Azzura to bounce back and focus more on the game than getting caught up in discussions with the referee.

We strongly expect the Squadra Azzura to fight for a place in the quarterfinals in two more games in the main round, taking at least 2-1 wins. We also expect that there will be no major problems on Tuesday and that’s why we decided to play the betting odds on an Italian handicap win (-12.5 points) between the Philippines and Italy.