Do the Bills remain the measure of things in the AFC East?
Good for the Jets that it’s not against the Pats – bad for the Jets that it’s now against the Bills. True, New York has lost to them no 1 3 times in a row, but only four times, but they still go into the game as crystal clear underdogs.
At the moment, though, almost every team is considered a double-digit handicap underdog against Buffalo. Quarterback Josh Allen’s team is simply too well-positioned, and they’ve gotten even stronger during the trade period.
With safety Dean Marlowe from the Falcons and running back Nyheim Hines from the Colts, they have fixed two of their problem spots and have become even less predictable. As a result, the odds on a Super Bowl success have promptly dropped once again (3.60 at Bet365).
For Sunday’s Jets vs. Bills, our prediction is in any case another Bills win, in which not only their offense will deliver again, but also their still underestimated defence. New York won’t be able to put up too many points in this game.
Kickoff of this NFL Week 9 game is Sunday at 7:00 pm in New York. The game can be watched live on ProSieben, ran.de and on ENDZN on DAZN.
New York Jets – Statistics & current form
Zach Wilson, what are you doing? After the second-year quarterback actually seemed to have shed his interception woes, he fell back into old patterns against the Patriots. Three interceptions – one worse than the other.
That cost the Jets the game in the end, although their defence had kept them within striking distance for a long time and had even kept them in the lead at half-time. But with three interceptions and the resulting good field position of the opponent, their defence was also without a chance in the end.
Defence better than its reputation
Many are talking about the Jets’ offensive strength this season and Zach Wilson, who has made significant strides with the exception of the Pats game. However, their biggest strength this season is clearly their defense.
They are one of only eleven teams to allow less than 20 points per game (19.9). That is clearly the better value compared to 22 offensive points on average. However, their defence is still underrated as it has simply acted as a revolving door too often in recent tanking years.
Breece Hall not to be replaced
In addition, it became obvious on Sunday that the absence of running back Breece Hall (torn cruciate ligament) cannot be absorbed. James Robinson, who was brought in from the Jaguars, could not even begin to close this gap with 17 yards and Michael Carter also only managed 26 yards.
This much weaker rushing game will also mean that the Jets will have trouble scoring against the Bills. So for New York against Buffalo, the odds on under scoring are good betting options for both the game and the Jets.
Key Players:
QB: Zach Wilson
RB: James Robinson
WR: Elijah Moore
TE: Tyler Conklin
K: Greg Zuerlein
Buffalo Bills – Statistics & current form
We don’t have to write much more about the Bills, because everyone knows how good they are anyway. Now they even picked up two more good players before the trade deadline.
Dean Marlowe came as an additional safety from the Atlanta Falcons, Nyheim Hines as an additional running back from the Indianapolis Colts. Hines, in particular, will add another element to the team that Zach Moss, who was given up in exchange, could not. Hines is one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league.
Bills unstoppable
It’s scary right now how good the Bills are on both sides of the field. Their offense has been a top 2 offense for a long time anyway at 29.0 points, but it’s their defense that has taken another leap forward and leads the NFL in superior scoring.
Only 14.0 points are allowed on average by this defence, 2.5 points less than the next best (Broncos). They are not expected to allow the magic 20 counter points mark against the Jets either – which could end up being another low scoring game.
Blowout or not?
This just leaves the question of how high the Bills will win? Then against Green Bay, they let up a bit in half two and only scored three points after a big lead. Such a scenario is also possible against the Jets, should Buffalo take an early lead.
That makes the -13 points in handicap hard to bet on. For Jets vs. Bills, a bet on under 47.5 points is thus the more playable alternative. However, betting on few Jets points (Under 17.5) is also a good option.
Key Players:
QB: Josh Allen
RB: Devin Singletary
WR: Stefon Diggs
TE: Dawson Knox
K: Tyler Bass
New York Jets – Buffalo Bills Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The Jets simply suit the Bills and quarterback Josh Allen. All four of the last duels went to Buffalo, with an average difference of 13.25 points. Consequently, this is also the handicap set by the bookmakers.
This is actually at the limit of the betting range. Because whether the margin of victory is ten, 14 or 20 points in the end is hardly predictable. For this duel, we prefer to focus on the total points, which remained below the 45-point mark in five of the last six games.
The 47.5 total points are thus set quite high. Thus, for New York against Buffalo, under-point odds are our No.1 betting option. That number has not been surpassed in six of the seven previous Bills games, and the only time it has been, it was only 48 against Baltimore.
New York Jets – Buffalo Bills Tip
There have been plenty of surprises this season – some with previous double-digit underdog status. However, there should be no such surprise on Sunday – the Bills are simply too solid for that.
On top of that, they are going to one of their favourite opponents. Since -12.5 to -13 points in handicap is a lot, the most that can be considered is half-time/final bets on Buffalo. However, for Jets vs. Bills, a bet on Buffalo + sub-points is the best option for us at good value.
We also see a Stefon Diggs touchdown as an alternative. He has found the end zone every time in the last three games and could do so again against the Jets.
