Will the Jaguars prevail in New Orleans?
Thursday Night is called Defense Night – at least on this Thursday in the NFL with our Saints vs. Jaguars tip. The Saints have been one of the better defenses all season, and for the last three weeks, they’ve been joined by the Jags defense.
So it could be another typical Thursday Night Game with few points and many field goals. Who will win in the end depends a little bit on whether Trevor Lawrence will be able to play on Jacksonville’s side.
If Lawrence is in, we see the advantage slightly on the Jags’ side; if he’s missing, that advantage shifts to the Saints’ side. That’s why we don’t commit to a winner here and look for other options for betting.
So, for New Orleans Saints vs Jacksonville Jaguars, our prediction is a low-scoring game that will be carried mostly by field goals. If Lawrence plays, then he could be the stronger quarterback to decide the game in favor of the Jaguars.
Kick-off of this NFC vs. AFC battle is Friday night at 02:15 in New Orleans. The game can be watched live on DAZN.
New Orleans Saints – statistics & current form
The Saints are simply beyond comprehension. There they are dismantling the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium, traveling to Houston and not getting a leg up there. It’s very obvious this season that for some teams, after a monster performance often comes a slump.
What do we make of this now for the Saints’ future? It looks a lot like this inconsistency will continue throughout the season. Their quarterback Derek Carr is too mediocre and they don’t get their running game going enough.
Kamara still with rust
While the return of Alvin Kamara was an important message offensively for New Orleans, the running back has yet to perform as convincingly as he has in previous years. He reached his best value of 80 rushing yards so far in almost every game in previous years.
Still, the signs are slightly positive for the Saints, because Kamara will probably improve and with this defense there are still some wins in it. In the NFC South, this could be enough to make the playoffs – and then everything is possible.
Defense the big bright spot
The 18.2 own points per game are certainly far below expectations, but the fact that it is still quite a decent season so far is due to their defense, which allows an average of only 16.0 points (ranked 6th). In terms of conceded space, they even rank 5th with only 278.3 yards allowed per game.
That should at least be enough to keep the Jaguars out of their own end zone on Thursday. They’ll have to put up with a few field goals, and then it’s up to their own offense.
So for Saints vs. Jaguars, the odds on Jacksonville’s Over 1 field goal are definitely to be taken advantage of, because that should be true whether Lawrence lines up now or not.
Key Players:
- QB: Derek Carr
- RB: Alvin Kamara
- WR: Chris Olave
- TE: Juwan Johnson
- K: Blake Grupe
Jacksonville Jaguars – stats & recent form
It was somewhat surprising news earlier this week that Trevor Lawrence showed up on the Injury Report, as there wasn’t much notice during the game against the Colts that he had injured his knee.
It’s not a big deal either, but it could still cost him a game now due to the short week. It’s certainly a case of keeping an eye on the daily press, as this would have quite an impact on the Jags offense.
London as energizer
The two games in London certainly seem to have had a very positive effect for the Jaguars. And that despite the fact that they didn’t have the obligatory bye week afterwards, but continued playing right away. It works even with a slight jet lag.
Now they travel to New Orleans a little more rested, where they will face a strong defense. But their own defense is also on the way up. In their last three games they allowed only 16.5 points on average – one of the better numbers in that span.
Etienne + Defense = Chance
So they have a chance in New Orleans – even if Lawrence is out. Then they would have to keep it at a low scoring game and could end up winning 15-12 or a similar score. In any case, they shouldn’t allow more than 20 points to have a chance to win.
Against the Colts, Brandon McManus hit all three of his field goals. The kicker has not gone without a field goal in any of his games so far. For us, he is therefore an unusual but very promising betting option.
Thus, for New Orleans vs. Jacksonville, a bet on Over 1 Field Goal by the Jaguars is our betting option number 1, because especially in low-scoring games, the kickers are generally more important.
Key Players:
- QB: Trevor Lawrence
- RB: Travis Etienne
- WR: Christian Kirk
- TE: Evan Engram
- K: Brandon McManus
New Orleans Saints – Jacksonville Jaguars head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The last four head-to-head duels have all gone to the Saints. However, the last time the two teams met was back in 2019, which was quite a while ago. By the way, it was a clear low-scoring game then, too, with a score of 13:9.
We expect this to happen again on Thursday. If we disregard the crazy Commanders vs. Bears game two weeks ago, Thursdays are also always pretty low-scoring overall. Even with the Chiefs the previous week, the total only went up to 27 (19-8).
In this respect, in addition to a bet on McManus in New Orleans against Jacksonville, the odds on subpar points should also be considered. These are very low at 39, but the full season so far shows that subpar points are on the rise again.
New Orleans Saints – Jacksonville Jaguars Tip
Win bets or points bets? These questions arise especially in very even duels and when an important player threatens to drop out. This is both the case on Thursday, as it is not yet clear whether Trevor Lawrence will be able to play – and if so, whether he is at 100%.
To that extent, we need a way out for Thursdays and we find it in one of the kickers. McManus of the Jaguars is considered one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL and so for Saints vs. Jags, a bet on Jacksonville’s Over 1 Field Goal is our favored bet.
Alternatively, as mentioned above, subpar points are also an option. The Saints are allowing just 16.0 points on average, while the Jaguars are allowing 16.5 points over their last three games. Therefore, the 39.0 set is still reasonably playable.
