Is it going to be another Bills thriller?

Thursday is AFC East showdown and in the middle of it instead of just in it are the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have the better of the two teams, already holding a two-win lead over the Pats with an 8-3 record.

This puts a lot of pressure on Bill Belichick’s men, especially since the Pats’ remaining schedule is one of the toughest in the entire NFL. Among others, the Bills, Dolphins and also the Bengals twice. Thus, for New England: No losing.

Now, of course, the Bills are not the opponent you want as a must-win opponent. Plus, Josh Allen and the Bills will come into the game with the greater confidence after their Thanksgiving success. Then on the same night, the Pats lost to the Vikings.

All in all, we see Buffalo as a number too big, especially since the Pats have been very good to Allen and Co. lately. Therefore, our prediction for Pats vs. Bills is an away win for Buffalo, which will also keep New England at a distance in their own division.

Kickoff of the Thursday Night Game is on Friday night at 02:15 in New England. The game can be followed live on DAZN.

New England Patriots – Statistics & current form

Even before the game at the Vikings, it was clear to the Patriots that they would have to pull off something extraordinary if they were to make the playoffs. The fact that all the other opponents in the AFC East won on Thanksgiving weekend didn’t really help them.

So they are now back in fourth and last place in the division and with their tough remaining schedule and the strength of the AFC, they are not expected to make the postseason. It would be only the third time in the last 20 years that they would miss out on that target.

Just a little bit missing everywhere

Thereby, the game against Minnesota was again marked by a good performance. Mac Jones threw flawlessly for 382 yards and two touchdowns, five receivers had over 60 yards and their defence caught one interception.

That it still wasn’t enough to win this week was due to the running game (only 45 rushing yards), their pass defence (301 yards conceded) and too many penalties. In other words, exactly the points where they usually had their strengths in the season.

That’s the problem: there is no major weakness, but in every game one part of the team is not quite up to scratch. Before, it was more often Mac Jones and the passing game or too many fumbles. Should all the pieces fall into place, the Pats are a very good football team.

Finished against Buffalo in all aspects

It’s a bad coincidence that they now face the Bills, a team that is slightly ahead in all of those stats. They gave the ball away once less, concede 0.3 points less and still score 6.4 points more.

It is precisely the last statistic that is likely to break the Pats’ neck in the end. This inferiority of the Pats’ own offence was already evident in the play-off duel in January (17:47!). Therefore, a tip on Buffalo for Thursday is our clear betting recommendation for the Pats against the Bills.

Key Players:
QB: Mac Jones
RB: Damien Harris
WR: DeVante Parker
TE: Hunter Henry
K: Nick Folk

Buffalo Bills – Statistics & current form

Two wins in a row and the Bills are somewhat back on track. However, the success against Detroit was not as convincing as many had predicted. Is Josh Allen a little more banged up than he lets on?

One or the other throw seemed a bit shaky and could have something to do with his elbow. Still, we don’t think it will have much of an impact as the season goes on. The Bills won’t risk the season just to win games against Detroit or New England.

Bills will return to form

Therefore, our clear opinion on the Bills is: They will now shift up a gear again especially in the duels against direct AFC East rivals. The Patriots in particular are too good for them. Three of the last four duels were won by at least 12 points.

The last duel in the playoffs in January can be described as a true show of strength with a score of 47-17. Buffalo simply scores significantly more points than New England (28.1 to 21.7) and exactly 90 yards more per game (415.9 to 325.9). That’s an almost uncatchable discrepancy.

Defence with weaknesses lately

After the Bills had one of the best defenses in the NFL for a long time, it wasn’t as solid in the last three games. They allowed an average of 27 points. However, this value is not to be expected against New England. On the contrary, we expect them to hold the Pats to under 20 points.

Thus, the odds on under 20 Pats points are another betting alternative to betting on the Bills. The Bills have a moderate favourite status, so betting on Buffalo -4.5 is still our betting option No.-1.

Key Players:
QB: Josh Allen
RB: Devin Singletary
WR: Stefon Diggs
TE: Dawson Knox
K: Tyler Bass

New England Patriots – Buffalo Bills Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

This brings us to the direct comparison, which we just touched on a bit. This one clearly favours Buffalo in the last few years of the post-Brady era. The Bills have won four of the last five meetings.

Three of these duels were also very one-sided in Buffalo’s favour, including the two games in New England. These were clear wins of 38-3 and 33-21. A win for the Bills with a double-digit margin of victory cannot be ruled out in this matchup.

So for New England vs. Buffalo, a bet on Bills -4.5 is just as possible as on half-time/final score Bills. After all, they have been ahead at halftime in all of their last five games and are also considered early starters.

New England Patriots – Buffalo Bills Tip

There is hardly a statistic that favours New England on Thursday. They score fewer points, concede more, force fewer turnovers and have a worse overall record. We did find one, though: They have two fewer ball losses than the Bills (17 to 19).

Still, all the other points are in Buffalo’s favour, so we favour a bet on the away team in any combination for Pats vs Bills. Our 1: Bills -4.5 is a value that favorites should cover significantly.

For betting alternatives, TD bets on one Bills player or another are a good option. We’re most likely to bet on a touchdown from Stefon Diggs, who has found the end zone in each of his last two games and is in good rhythm.