Will the Packers remain the No. 1 team in the NFC?
A true classic will take place in the NFC North on Sunday when the Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers. These two teams have fought quite a few battles over the last few decades, we just remember the 29-29 tie from three years ago.
The rivalry in the north is great and especially at this time of the year we always experience really frosty games in Minnesota. But the Packers already have experience with snow and sub-zero temperatures, as they also had them at Lambeau Field last Sunday.
If the temperatures drop on Sunday, then that should mean a low-scoring game, as the players’ fingers are a little stiffer than normal. This is always the case in winter games.
For Vikings vs. Packers, our forecast is on the one hand a low-scoring game, but on the other hand also an away win for Green Bay, who simply have the better form at the moment – above all Aaron Rodgers.
Kickoff of the game is on Sunday evening at 19:00 in Green Bay. The game will be broadcast live by ran.de and by DAZN.
Minnesota Vikings – Statistics & current form
The Vikings are 4-5 so far, but are being sold short. With a little better nerve on their part, their record could easily be 7:2.
They lost two overtime games against the Bengals and the Ravens, and the losses to Arizona (by one point) and Dallas (by four points) were more than avoidable, especially since the Cowboys were without their starting quarterback.
Playoffs still within reach
That’s why the Vikings already have to blame themselves for not getting enough out of their performances. That makes Sunday’s game against their rivals from Green Bay all the more important. A win here and the gap to the play-off places could be closed.
However, they face an extremely strong Packers team that has won seven of its last eight games. There was only one loss – and Aaron Rodgers was out. So the Vikings will have to come up with something special.
Defense against the run slowly improving
One of their big problems in the first half of the season was certainly their defence against the run. They are still among the weakest five teams in the NFL there (130.6 yards allowed per game). However, the trend is going in the right direction.
After a disastrous 247 yards against Baltimore, they held the Chargers to just 82 yards. Zimmer and his defence coaches did a good job, which they will have to confirm against Green Bay.
With Aaron Jones out, they might even be able to do that. Still, we don’t see them on par with the Packers defensively, which makes betting against the Vikings the favourite betting option for Minnesota vs Green Bay.
Key Players:
QB: Kirk Cousins
RB: Dalvin Cook
WR: Adam Thielen
WR: Justin Jefferson
K: Greg Joseph
Green Bay Packers – stats & current form
Aaron Rodgers was back on the field against the Seattle Seahawks, but the headlines on the day were written by others. First and foremost their defence, which recorded its first shutout of the season and that against Russell Wilson of all people.
It was his first 0-point game of his career and it demonstrated that the Packers are more than just Rodgers and Adams this season. All the other teams will have to dress warmly – and not only because of the temperatures in Green Bay.
Packers defence on the rise
So their defence now already ranks third league-wide in both yards conceded per game (309.9) and points scored (18.0). If we take only their last five games, they are allowing only 11.6 points per game, which is outstanding.
This means they have by far the best defence in recent weeks and also give Aaron Rodgers enough support that he can still win easily with normal performances. Because 17 offensive points are not the best thing in the world either.
Aaron Jones is out
The only small fly in the ointment in recent weeks was the injury to running back Aaron Jones, which fortunately turned out not to be all that serious. So he should be able to play again in one or two weeks.
The fact that his backup A.J. Dillon has also been convincing lately makes the headache due to this issue disappear completely. Thus, the odds on Green Bay are definitely to be exploited in Vikings vs. Packers – for a terrific value even in combination with subpar points.
Key Players:
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: A.J. Dillon
WR: Davante Adams
TE: Mercedes Lewis
K: Mason Crosby
Minnesota Vikings – Green Bay Packers Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The Packers dominate the direct comparison in the last decades. Of the last 23 duels, the Vikings won only seven, but four of them in the last four years. The last meeting a year ago in Green Bay also went to Minnesota.
Still, we see them as slight underdogs in this game, as the Packers’ defence is currently allowing very little. Whoever can hold Russell Wilson to 0 points will also be able to hold Kirk Cousins to under 20 points.
Thus, a bet on Green Bay in a Vikings vs. Packers game is just as recommended as one on under 47.5 points or on few points by the Vikings. In the last five games, only one team has managed to score more than 20 points against Green Bay.
Minnesota Vikings – Green Bay Packers Tip
Statistically, the Packers are ahead defensively, the Vikings offensively. However, because Green Bay’s advantage defensively is so large (they allow 5.4 fewer points per game), we see them as having a slight favourite status.
Thus, the odds on the Packers are to be taken advantage of in Minnesota vs. Green Bay. Both pure win bets at 1.91 and bets with a slight handicap of up to -3 are highly recommended.
Betting on sub-points is also worth considering. As already mentioned, the Packers are currently allowing well under 20 points, which means it will be difficult to exceed 47.5 total points in Sunday’s game. However, the betting odds on the Vikings vs. Packers game are not particularly attractive.
