Revenge for the Pats’ home loss on Game Day 1?
Last game day – last decisions in the NFL. For the Miami Dolphins, though, it’s not about much anymore. Not even the improvement or deterioration of their first-round pick, since they have to give it up to the Philadelphia Eagles anyway.
The Patriots, on the other hand, still have a small chance to win the AFC East title. However, since the Bills are playing the Jets at the same time, this hope is also rather slim. Still, the Pats are in more of a bind here than the Fins.
So New England is also considered the clear favourite by the betting companies. Even clearer, however, is their tendency towards an absolute low-scoring game. Just 39 to 40 points are set on average, which we already consider very little.
For Dolphins vs. Patriots, our prediction is a win for the Pats, but with a few more points scored than widely assumed. Because with Miami having nothing left to lose, they could risk a big play or two.
Kickoff for this NFL Game Week 18 matchup is at 10:25 p.m. Sunday in Miami. The game will be broadcast live on DAZN’s RedZone.
Miami Dolphins – Statistics & current form
The Dolphins blew it on the penultimate day of play. The 3:34 in Tennessee broke their neck in the fight for a playoff ticket. However, there had to be a defeat at some point, after seven wins in a row.
But the fact that it turned out so clearly came as a surprise. Tua had an off-day, the running game never got going and even kicker Jason Sanders lost his nerve once. All in all, a used day.
How motivated are the Dolphins still?
Now it’s time for the season finale against the Pats, one of their arch enemies. Of course, they want to give them a run for their money, which is why we don’t expect a blowout win for the Pats. That would certainly not go down well with the critical home crowd in Miami.
The Fins have also won seven games in a row, so their form isn’t as bad as the tough loss in Tennessee suggests. So they should be able to knock on the 20-point mark again on Sunday, as they have in all of their last six games before Sunday.
Both teams good at forcing turnovers
Similarly to the Pats, the Dolphins are also ranked in the top third of turnovers forced. Already 13 interceptions and ten fumbles they could generate this way – a top value. However, they also lose the ball quite often.
With 26 ball losses, they are six worse than New England here, which in the end should be a point that speaks against Miami. Thus, for Dolphins against Patriots, a tip against Miami is more bettable, although the defeat should not be as high as the bookmakers estimate.
Key Players:
QB: Tua Tagovailoa
RB: Myles Gaskin
WR: DeVante Parker
TE: Mike Gesicki
K: Jason Sanders
New England Patriots – stats & current form
The Patriots like it solid. This is the fifth time this season they have outscored an opponent by more than 20 points and the third time they have scored at least 45 points.
That they still won’t win the AFC East was due to their slow start to the season and their loss to the Bills a fortnight ago. They will be able to cope with it, after all they have already made the playoffs.
Running game at New England the be-all and end-all
Still in the pundits’ conversation as Rookie of the Year is Mac Jones. Yes, he’s playing a strong first season, but when we look at the reasons for the Pats success, he comes up more in the second tier of that.
Clearly at the forefront among those crucial points are their defence and running game. In the case of the latter, this is all the more surprising given that the Pats entered the season without a clear top rusher, but now stand at 126.1 yards per game.
Rookie Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris are particularly noteworthy here. Both contributed two rushing touchdowns each again last Sunday against Jacksonville.
Warming up for the playoffs?
Even though the division title is probably only theoretically up for grabs, the game is still important for the Pats. All playoff teams want to start the postseason with a sense of achievement, which has always been very important in recent years.
On top of that, it’s also against the unloved division rivals from Miami. In this respect, we see the Patriots ahead and also with one or two rushing touchdowns. For Dolphins vs. Pats, our pick is New England + Over Points.
Key Players:
QB: Mac Jones
RB: Damien Harris
WR: Nelson Agholor
TE: Hunter Henry
K: Nick Folk
Miami Dolphins – New England Patriots Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
When we talk about the AFC East, yes, the Pats’ merciless superiority over the last few decades always comes to mind. However, the fact that the Dolphins have been able to keep the head-to-head duel fairly even recently is surprising.
The last ten games have been split fraternally 5:5. The last two duels even went to Miami, most recently in the season opener there was a close 17:16 away for the Dolphins. However, since the Pats have become stronger since then, we expect at least a few more points from them.
In Pats games, the 40-point mark has recently been exceeded in five of seven games, sometimes significantly. Therefore, in addition to betting on the away team in Miami vs. New England, Over 40.0 Total Points odds are also a betting option.
Miami Dolphins – New England Patriots betting tips
There’s still something at stake for the Pats, but hardly anything at all for the Dolphins. However, divisional duels are always under a different star, because nobody likes to lose there. Accordingly, both teams should still be highly motivated.
Since the betting providers set the total points so extremely low here, several betting options come into question for us. The best value for Dolphins vs. Pats is certainly the prediction on New England + Over 40.0 points.
The Patriots should be able to increase the total number of points here, which is why bets on some Pats points are also possible. Over 23.5 should be easy here again.
