Surprise the Guerreros against Montenegro?
In the preliminary round of the Basketball World Cup 2023 there are not only the big games of the top teams. Due to 32 participating teams, there are also numerous underdogs involved, which we also like to take a look at at this point. Two of these underdogs will meet in a direct duel on Friday, and it will be interesting to see in which direction the betting between Mexico and Montenegro will go.
When we look at the four teams in this Group D that will play their matches at the Mall of Asia Arena in Pasay, the only question is probably who will follow the favorites from Lithuania into the intermediate round. The Balts are probably too big for all the opponents in this pool. Behind them, however, the race for second place between Mexico, Montenegro and Egypt should be relatively open.
Perhaps the best prospects should go to the Montenegrins, who come from the Yugoslavian basketball school and therefore have a long tradition. As an independent nation, however, Montenegro has yet to celebrate any notable success.
However, we are not quite sure in which direction the match will go. Both teams played their last test match before the World Cup against the Philippines and both won reasonably clearly. In this respect, we think that Mexico and Montenegro can play at a similar level, but on balance we also see slight advantage for the team from Europe.
Mexico – statistics & current form
The participation in a World Cup is already something very special for Mexican basketball. Since 1974, there was only one World Cup participation, in 2014 in Spain. Now the Mexicans are once again in the game. Expectations are low, although coach Omar Quintero can call on six veterans who gained experience in the World Cup nine years ago.
Successful preparation of the Mexicans
In qualifying, they secured their World Cup ticket in the American group stage ahead of Brazil. The Brazilians won twice against the USA in the process, after all. Even though these cross-comparisons are often deceptive, it still shows that the Mexican warriors certainly have their qualities and can keep up with Montenegro on good days.
In the preparation the Mexicans have achieved very decent results, even if the opponents were not from the top shelf. After all, Mexico has won nine of the last ten international matches, including against World Cup participants from Lebanon and the Philippines. The only defeat for Omar Quintero’s team was against Jordan.
The Mexicans do not have a single player from the NBA in their squad. All twelve players nominated are active in the domestic league. That is certainly not a disadvantage in terms of play-in, but there remains at least a question mark when it comes to the quality of the players, so between Mexico and Montenegro we rather look at the odds for an opening defeat of the Mexican Warriors.
Predicted lineup of Mexico:
Stoll, J. Gutierrez, Andriassi, Montano, Cruz, Mendez, Giron, Bonilla, Jaimes, Hernandez, Camacho, I. Gutierrez, Ibarra, Amigo – Coach: Quintero
Montenegro – Statistics & current form
As an independent nation, the team from Montenegro is still waiting for its first big success, except for the victories in the games of small European countries with less than one million inhabitants. There, the Montenegrins triumphed in 2015 and 2019. That’s all that’s on the letterhead of the Montenegrin Basketball Federation so far.
No top ten finish in major tournaments yet
After all, they participated in a World Cup once in 2019 and also played in a European Championship four times. Montenegro has never managed to secure a place in the top ten. This makes it clear that making it through the group stage can be the only goal for the time being. Before the opening match between Mexico and Montenegro, we would be tempted to predict that the Europeans will still be involved in the next round.
The Montenegrins are led by their top star Nikola Vucevic, who has played over 800 games in the NBA and currently plays center for the Chicago Bulls. However, he has numerous colleagues around him who have gained a lot of international experience at a high level with Spanish or Serbian clubs. The Montenegrins will therefore not lack the necessary competitive toughness.
Bosko Radovic’s team had a rather mixed preparation. In addition to two victories against Iran and the Philippines, the team suffered three defeats against Slovenia, France and, surprisingly, Georgia. Where exactly Montenegro stands in this World Cup will probably only show the first game against the Mexicans, in which the Europeans must not allow themselves a defeat on the way to the main round.
Predicted lineup of Montenegro:
Perry, Ivanovic, Drobnjak, Popovic, Mihailovic, Slavkovic, Radoncic, Ilic, Dubljevic, Simonovic, Vucevic – Coach: Radovic
Mexico – Montenegro Direct comparison / H2H record
The occasions when the national teams from Mexico and Montenegro could cross paths are extremely limited. The two have never been present at the same time at the Olympic Games or World Championships. Nor has there been a test match to date. So the two rivals will meet for the first time ever on Friday in Pasay.
Mexico – Montenegro tip
After all, they kept up well for a long time against Slovenia and France in the test matches, even if they lost. However, the Mexicans are far from being that strong and that’s why we expect the Europeans to secure victory on Friday in Pasay
However, the Mexican Warriors have won nine of their last ten international matches. However, this record can be viewed ambiguously, because the very big teams were not on the plate as opponents. We think you can definitely place a bet on a Montenegrin handicap win (-8.5 points) between Mexico and Montenegro in the Bwin app.
We also think that both teams should score in the 75-90 point range. This could mean that betting on more than 155.5 points certainly sounds plausible. On balance, we also expect the Europeans to win and that’s why we decided to play betting odds on a win for the Montenegrins and a total of more than 155.5 points between Mexico and Montenegro.
