Will the Pats remain unbeaten away from home?
Rookie 2020 vs. Rookie 2021 is the quarterback duel on Sunday in Los Angeles, when the Chargers host the Patriots. It will also be a clash between the best quarterbacks of the last two rookie years to date.
There are no two opinions that Justin Herbert has the edge from the 2020 class, but the matter also seems clear so far in 2021. Mac Jones, who was only picked as the fifth QB, clearly has his higher-priced colleagues in his pocket.
The Pats recently recorded their highest win of the season against the Jets with 54:13, whereas the Chargers went down with 6:34 against the Ravens in their last match. Afterwards, their wounds were treated in the bye week, but this defeat is likely to have an after-effect.
Therefore, we do not see Los Angeles as the big favourites and in Chargers vs. Patriots, our prediction is a duel of equals that could go either way. Bets on New England are therefore also much more promising.
Kickoff of the Sunday night game is at 9:05pm in LA. The game will be broadcast live on DAZN’s Redzone.
Los Angeles Chargers – Statistics & current form
The hype train of the Chargers has lost some momentum after their clear defeat against the Ravens. It would also have been very surprising if the 7-9 Chargers from last year had now suddenly become the high-flying team of the season.
After all, there have been no major changes in the squad since then. Nevertheless, the victories against the Chiefs and the Browns in recent weeks have created expectations that almost seem a little exaggerated.
Justin Herbert still without much experience
So bettors are currently jumping on the Chargers’ big favourite bandwagon, which is also evident in the example of their game against the Pats. There they are considered the favourites by an average of 5.5 points, although they score one point less per game and allow five points more.
All because of a quarterback who is seen as a coming MVP. This is going too fast for us and the clear 6:34 against Baltimore has already shown that even Herbert still has his fluctuations in the game. We have to remember that he’s only playing his second season too.
Bettors overestimate the Chargers
For Chargers vs Patriots, betting on the away team is therefore a good way to pick up excellent value. After all, home field advantage isn’t really a given in Chargers games either. For example, their fans were clearly outnumbered against the Cowboys in their own stadium.
This could also be the case against the Pats, who have a large fan base. Since they are also slightly ahead in almost all statistics, betting against the Chargers is our clear betting recommendation here.
Key Players:
QB: Justin Herbert
RB: Austin Ekeler
WR: Keenan Allen
TE: Jared Cook
K: Tristan Vizcaino
New England Patriots – Statistics & current form
Just as the Chargers are overrated, the Patriots are a bit underrated. Of course, head coach Bill Belichick’s team has only a 3-4 record, but they won two of their last four games and the two losses came against absolute top teams.
The Patriots had both the reigning champions from Tampa Bay and the strong Cowboys on the brink of defeat – they even lost to Dallas after overtime. Why there should now be a clear defeat against the Chargers is questionable for us.
Patriots again with Top 6 Defence
After always being listed among the top 10 best defenses in recent years (even No.1 in 2019), the Pats are once again in the top 6 in 2021.Exactly 20.0 points allowed per game means they rank 6th in this statistic.
This also means, for example, that they allow 5.0 points less per game than their upcoming opponent. Especially against the run, they allow 56.9 yards less than the Chargers with 105.6 yards. By NFL standards, that’s worlds.
Matchup suits the Pats
As their own running game has also picked up steam in recent weeks (148 rushing yards against the Jets), this matchup should suit New England. Running back Damien Harris, in particular, could take advantage of his good form against this spotty run defense.
We expect him to score a touchdown in any case. After all, he ran for a total of three in the last two games. So for Los Angeles vs. New England, the odds are clearly in favour of the Pats – alongside a rushing TD from Damien Harris.
Key Players:
QB: Mac Jones
RB: Damien Harris
WR: Nelson Agholor
TE: Jonnu Smith
K: Nick Folk
Los Angeles Chargers – New England Patriots Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Even if we look at the direct comparison, there is no way around New England. Of the last ten duels, nine went to the Pats, the last one last year even with 45-0! The Chargers have not been able to win against Belichick and his Pats since 2008.
In the last five Patriots victories, the margin of victory was always at least eight points. No matter how we spin it, a clear victory for the Chargers, as predicted by the bookmakers, is simply not in the air here.
Thus, a tip on New England is to be considered for Chargers against Patriots both with handicap and without.
Los Angeles Chargers – New England Patriots betting tips
The Chargers have the worst run defence in the entire NFL, are not a home power and have lost their last six duels with New England. And yet they are considered 5.5-point favourites.
This correlation does not make sense to us, which is why we would clearly prefer the odds on New England for Chargers vs. Pats. Also a combination with expected under points would still be a good option.
As a betting alternative, we have already cited the tip on a Damien Harris touchdown. In the last three games, he always found the end zone via a run, even twice against the New York Jets.
