Who will take the AFC West?
Welcome to the Wild Wild West is the name of the game on Thursday Night in the NFL. Because the AFC West division is still completely open this season and the wildest things are happening. However, it now looks like the Chiefs will have the most staying power in the end.
With six wins in a row they could move from third to first place in the division and with a win against the Chargers they would take a huge step towards the division title.
But the Chargers also seem to have bounced back after a nasty loss to the Broncos. With clear victories against the Bengals and the Giants, they have impressively underlined their playoff ambitions.
Against these hot Chiefs, however, we see LA as clear underdogs. For Los Angeles vs. Kansas City, our prediction is thus also the seventh Chiefs win in a row. This would also be revenge for their loss in NFL Week 3.
Kickoff of the Thursday Night Game of NFL Match Week 15 is on Friday night at 02.20 in Los Angeles. The match can be watched live on DAZN.
Los Angeles Chargers – Statistics & current form
It’s entering the decisive phase of the season and the Chargers also seem to have understood that it counts now. Against the Giants on Sunday they were highly concentrated from the start and already led 24:7 at half-time.
After some weaker performances in the middle of the season, quarterback Justin Herbert was on fire again. With 275 yards and three touchdowns he played almost flawlessly and also contributed 19 yards via the run.
How good is Justin Herbert really?
The big hype around Herbert has died down a bit (at times he was dubbed the most talented QB of all time), but he still shows what he’s got. His 59-yard touchdown to Guyton on Sunday was already an abstruse highlight play.
With a QB rating of 100.3, he has also rejoined the ranks of the eight quarterbacks with a rating over 100 points. That puts him even ahead of his upcoming counterpart Mahomes, who is still stuck at 94.9.
Defence the problem child
What could be crucial against the Chiefs, however, is their still very fragile defence. They actually allow the seventh most points of any team league-wide – even 5.2 more points compared to the Chiefs.
Even if we see these two teams on par offensively, this is a point that clearly goes against them for Thursday. Thus, with Chargers vs. Chiefs, a bet on Kansas City is our favoured betting option.
Key Players:
QB: Justin Herbert
RB: Austin Ekeler
WR: Keenan Allen
TE: Jared Cook
K: Tristan Vizcaino
Kansas City Chiefs – stats & recent form
The Chiefs are the Chiefs and meanwhile they are also back in the circle of absolute Super Bowl favourites. Together with the Buccaneers, they already top the list of favourites again and there are only odds of around 6.00 on a Super Bowl triumph.
However, that is totally understandable when we look at their recent convincing performances. Offensively, it was a gala performance against the Raiders on Sunday, just as it was three game days earlier against the same team.
Defence from flop to absolute top
But in the long run and the Super Bowl, it’s another part of the team that currently excels: their defence. In their last five games, they allowed a maximum of 14 points and an average of only 9.6.
In all of their last three games, they held their opponents to less than ten points. That makes them the only team in the NFL to do so, and with the Cowboys, Broncos and Raiders, the opposing teams were anything but fall fruit.
Their transformation from one of the weakest defenses to one of the strongest after a few days of play is a little surprising. Defense Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo deserves a lot of respect.
High scoring game expected
This, of course, affects the betting odds for total points. Where a matchup of these two offensive machines would normally easily be set for 55-56 total points, it is currently only 50.5 on average.
However, since we expect the Chiefs to be unable to sustain their 9.6 counter points against LA, there are also over-points in the draw on Thursday. In fact, the best way to take advantage of the odds on Chargers vs Chiefs is to combine a bet on Kansas City with Over 50.5 points.
Key Players:
QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
WR: Tyreek Hill
TE: Travis Kelce
K: Harrison Butker
Los Angeles Chargers – Kansas City Chiefs Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
After the Chiefs had the Chargers under control for years (12 wins from the last 15 games), the Chargers were successful in the past two duels. Above all, the Chiefs’ home defeat in Week 3 is certainly still stuck in the minds of Mahomes and Co.
So they will be hot for revenge. That this can be a decisive factor was only shown again by the Rams on Monday Night Game, who faced a similar scenario with the Cardinals.
Thus, the odds on the Chiefs in LA vs. Kansas City are also much more bettable, even with a few points in the handicap. Betting on the Chiefs to score a lot of points is also still a good betting option given their current form.
Los Angeles Chargers – Kansas City Chiefs Tip
The Chiefs are currently the hottest team in the league next to the Patriots and anyone who has followed the last few years knows what that means: betting against them is almost a no-go. But that still leaves the question of the best betting option.
With an average handicap of 4-5 points, handicap bets are definitely an option. We would recommend a bet on Chiefs + Over points due to the significantly better value on Chargers vs. Chiefs.
Alternatively, however, a bet on a Tyreek Hill touchdown is also possible. He has already waited three games for a successful result, which is very unusual for him.
