Will Rafa also master the first acid test?
In the absence of his long-term rivals Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal could make history at the Australian Open 2022. Should the Bull of Manacor win the Grand Slam tournament Down Under for the second time since 2009, he would become the ATP Tour’s sole record winner with 21 Grand Slams won.
However, the Majorcan faces his first really big test in the third round when he meets the Russian Olympic finalist. Nevertheless, in the run-up to the match between Karen Khachanov and Rafael Nadal, the odds are clearly in favour of the experienced Spaniard.
The direct comparison, in particular, is in favour of Rafa, who has won all seven of his duels with the Russian. In five duels on hard court, the Spaniard only dropped a single set against the silver medallist of the 2021 Summer Olympics.
Accordingly, the betting on Karen Khachanov against Rafael Nadal is that the bull from Manacor will overcome this difficult hurdle with flying colours and win in the end with at least six games difference (AHC -5.5).
Karen Khachanov – Statistics & current form
Current World Ranking: 30
Position in the seedings: 28
The 25-year-old Russian Karen Khachanov has already landed many a big coup and secured a total of four singles titles on the ATP Tour. At the Australian Open, however, he was eliminated in five attempts at the latest in the third round.
Now, at his sixth attempt, he is up against one of the top favourites for the overall title, who has already reached the final five times in his career here in Melbourne Park.
Win rate of just 25.6% against Top 10 players
The fact that the Muscovite has only reached the quarter-finals of a Grand Slam tournament twice in 20 attempts can also be explained by his not too fearsome record against the elite of the ATP Tour.
The clash with Rafael Nadal will be Karen Khachanov’s 40th match against a current top-10 player. So far, he has won only ten of these matches, which corresponds to a win rate of 25.6%. Against this backdrop, he also failed to win the gold medal at the Olympic Games last summer in the grand final against Alexander Zverev, when he lost 2-0 in the final without a chance and only managed to win four games.
19 aces in 3-0 second round win
Not a few pundits are expecting another collapse after two not entirely flawless performances on his way to the third round when the 25-year-old clashes with his nemesis, against whom he has never won in seven duels.
Accordingly, there is little to be said for Karen Khachanov against Rafael Nadal in favour of the Moscow player advancing, who last tried to settle almost everything on his serve against Benjamin Bonzi. However, it seems highly unlikely that he will get the 19 aces that ultimately got him into the third round on court again against possibly the best return player on the tour.
Rafael Nadal – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world rankings: 5
Position in the seedings: 6
At 35 years of age, the Spaniard Rafael Nadal is far from being old news. He has only played selected tournaments in the last two years. However, there have not been many defeats for the 20-time Grand Slam winner.
In the 2020 season, Rafa won 27 matches out of 34 singles matches, while last year he won 24 matches out of 29 singles matches. Despite regular breaks to recover, the Majorcan is still far from being out of the top 10 in the ATP world rankings.
With two straight 3-0 victories into the third round
The fit bull from Manacor proved again in his first two matches that three winning sets do not cause him any physical problems, as he won two 3-0 matches at Melbourne Park that were never in danger. In the opening match against Marcos Giron, he only gave up seven games. Against Yannick Hanfmann it was nine.
It is curious that his game even showed massive potential for improvement. Against his German opponent in the second round alone, one of the ATP’s best return players won no less than 16 break points, but was only able to convert four of them (25%).
The first serve has to come better
In addition, his first serve only found its way into the court 54% of the time, he played only one ace and, conversely, committed five double faults. Values for which weaker players are quickly punished, while Rafa won 3-0 in the end and won a whole nine games more than his opponent.
Accordingly, his role as favourite is clear against an opponent against whom he has won all seven duels.
Karen Khachanov – Rafael Nadal Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 0:7
Karen Khachanov has challenged the Manacor bull seven times so far. The Russian has not won a single one of these seven matches. On the hard court, he even took just one set from Rafael Nadal in five duels.
Karen Khachanov – Rafael Nadal Tip
The prediction for Karen Khachanov against Rafael Nadal clearly goes to the experienced Spaniard, who has already reached the Australian Open final five times and has won 71 of his 86 singles here. The veteran can go into the third round with a correspondingly broad chest, for which he has not even had to stretch very much in view of his sometimes mixed performance data.
Because there is still a lot of room for improvement in his serve, but also in the exploitation of his break chances so far, we expect a clear victory for the Spaniard, whose Russian challenger has never made it past the third round of the Australian Open before.
We expect Rafa to end up winning at least six more games than the Russian.
