Who will take the crown in Las Vegas?
The Super Bowl and thus the biggest game of the year is coming up – and if we look at the TV viewing figures, it’s even the biggest game in the world. This year, our Super Bowl tip is Chiefs vs 49ers and we already had this matchup four years ago.
Back in 2020, the Chiefs won 31:20 – but they were still trailing 10:20 before the final quarter. So they started a comeback, just like the San Francisco 49ers did in their NFC Championship Game against the Detroit Lions
They were trailing by 17 points at half-time (7:24) and still don’t really know how they managed to turn it around – even with a lot of luck. The Chiefs, on the other hand, only needed a solid first half against the Ravens, against whom they were once again terrific, especially defensively.
Mahomes is simply incredibly difficult to overcome in the playoffs, which is why our prediction for Chiefs vs. 49ers is another triumph for Mahomes and his colleagues, who will simply go into the game with significantly more experience
Kick-off is on Sunday at 00:30 in Las Vegas. The Super Bowl 2024 will be broadcast live on RTL and DAZN.
Kansas City Chiefs – Statistics & current form
Every year the groundhog greets us. For the third time in the last four years, the Kansas City Chiefs will play in a Super Bowl and the only time they lost was when Tom Brady was still on the field on the other side.
Now it’s against Brock Purdy and the 49ers and what a surprise: the Chiefs are actually considered the underdogs according to the bookmakers. This certainly has to do with their poor performances over the regular season, but we shouldn’t be fooled by them
Mahomes is still unbeaten against the 49ers
It’s also another matchup that has suited Patrick Mahomes very well in his career. He has faced San Francisco three times so far – three times winning by at least eleven points. He would have had a worse record against Detroit.
He also averaged 37.6 points with his offense in those three games, which would almost certainly be enough for a win on Sunday. However, the current Chiefs offense is no longer quite at the level of past seasons.
In this regular season, for example, they only scored 21.8 points per game. Just in time for the playoffs, however, they got back on track and scored a good 23.3 points on average in the postseason – and that against the strong defenses of the Dolphins, Bills and Ravens.
Tips on the Chiefs are very possible
This clear improvement in performance in the playoffs is also the reason why we don’t see Kansas City as the underdogs on Sunday. On the contrary: we would even be surprised if the young Brock Purdy could withstand all the pressure better than a Patrick Mahomes.
Combined with their strong defense, which has only allowed an average of 13.6 points in the postseason so far, the odds on Kansas City in Chiefs vs. 49ers are very playable. A combo bet with decent over-points is also recommended, as there are always more points scored between these two teams than expected.
Key Players:
- QB: Patrick Mahomes
- RB: Isiah Pacheco
- WR: Rashee Rice
- TE: Travis Kelce
- K: Harrison Butker
San Francisco 49ers – stats & current form
Close, closer, 49ers. That could be the title of the San Francisco 49ers’ postseason so far. Then they would actually have to win the Super Bowl against the Chiefs with a last second field goal or touchdown. However, Pat Mahomes is no Jordan Love or Jared Goff – and the Chiefs are smarter than the young Packers or the Lions.
Nevertheless, the Niners certainly have a chance, especially if Christian McCaffrey returns to his top form of recent games. He scored two touchdowns against both the Packers and the Lions, which means he is currently leading the playoffs.
Normally, a bet on a touchdown from McCaffrey would naturally be an option for Kansas City vs. However, the odds here are so low at only 1.41 that they are not worthwhile in this case
Defense weaker than in the regular season
In the regular season, the 49ers defense allowed an average of only 17.5 points, in the postseason it is 26.0 per game. This trend is definitely worrisome, especially because it runs counter to the Chiefs offense.
This vulnerability leads us to expect some points again in the Super Bowl. Especially at the beginning, when both teams start their pre-planned drives, points could quickly be put on the scoreboard. Tips on over 7.5 points in the first quarter are therefore also a recommendation
Tips on over-points a good alternative
65, 51 and 67 were the total points scored in the last three meetings. Each time: Pat Mahomes. Whether we will break the 50-point mark again on Sunday remains to be seen, but at least we should see well over 40 points.
The odds of over 41.5 for Kansas City vs. San Francisco are therefore very playable and to increase the value, we can combine them with a Chiefs win. Even a score by the Chiefs defense could be possible here against an initially nervous Brock Purdy.
Key Players:
- QB: Brock Purdy
- RB: Christian McCaffrey
- WR: Deebo Samuel
- TE: George Kittle
- K: Jake Moody
Kansas City Chiefs – San Francisco 49ers head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The last three duels, as already discussed, went to Kansas City, with the average margin of victory being over 14 points. However, Jimmy Garoppolo was also the 49ers quarterback in all three duels.
Current form is slightly in favor of Kansas City in the playoffs, but over the season as a whole in favor of the Niners. However, the 49ers have had the best luck in the postseason so far – and that’s what matters in a Super Bowl, as last year taught us.
There are certainly some statistics that speak in favor of San Francisco over the course of the season, but since the Chiefs of the playoffs can no longer be compared with those of the regular season, we will neglect them somewhat (e.g. turnover ratio). So for Chiefs vs Niners, a bet on Kansas City is not as far-fetched as these stats might make it look
Kansas City Chiefs – San Francisco 49ers betting tip
Yes, the 49ers have the +21 better turnover ratio of the regular season and also scored 7.1 points more on average. But last year, the Chiefs were also considered the slight underdogs against the Eagles and we all know how it turned out.
Back then, Jalen Hurts had to pay a bit of a price in the end and Brock Purdy could do the same this year. Therefore, a bet on Kansas City + Over 41.5 points is our preferred betting option for Chiefs vs. 49ers, which also gives us a strong value
Alternatively, a Player Bet is also possible and how could it be otherwise, of course on Travis Kelce. In the Super Bowl, betting odds of up to 1.90 are offered for a touchdown from Swift friend Kelce. He has already scored three touchdowns in these playoffs and is likely to be Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target again on Sunday.
