Can the Chiefs get back on track at home?

Where have the Kansas City Chiefs of recent years gone, please? Where is Pat Mahomes and why is he letting his untalented twin brother play in recent weeks? These are probably the questions all NFL fans have been asking lately.

Because the pre-season top favourite has already lost four after seven games and is in danger of missing the boat in the playoff race. They’re lucky to be on the road in the AFC – in the NFC, the playoff train almost sailed with that record.

While in the first few weeks of the season it was purely their defence that was showered with criticism, it hasn’t stopped at Mahomes in the meantime. With eleven interceptions already, he has thrown the second most of any NFL quarterback ever.

Against the Giants, they are once again considered the heavy favourites, but we are no longer quite so sure about the Chiefs. Our prediction for Kansas City vs. New York is therefore a game in which anything can happen. From a Chiefs blowout to a Giants sensation, any result is possible here.

Kickoff of the Monday Night Game is on Tuesday night at 02:15 and the game can be watched live on DAZN.

Kansas City Chiefs – Statistics & current form

The Chiefs are hardly recognisable anymore. While in previous years it was easy to predict wins for them and have them on your radar even with higher handicap bets, those days are gone. Against the Titans now, they were literally shown up with 3:27.

It is true that Pat Mahomes had to leave the field at some point in the second half after a blow to the head, but even before that things were not one bit better with him. Already nine interceptions after seven days of play speak for themselves.

Chiefs offence no longer clicking

While the biggest criticism still hails down on their defence, since last Sunday at the latest, we can’t exempt the offence from it either. With only three points of their own, something just isn’t right anymore.

Apart from the nine interceptions by Mahomes (which alone are unbelievable), the many other ball losses are also striking. They have committed eight fumbles so far, at least two more than any other team in the league. That makes it unnecessarily difficult for their own defence.

Disastrous defence so far

While these eight fumbles and nine interceptions prove that the defence is not entirely to blame for the poor start to the season so far, it still has a big part to play in it. With 404.6 yards allowed per game, they are one of only six teams to give up over 400 yards.

Their upcoming opponent from New York, for example, allows only 368.7 yards, and the Giants defence is not considered top either. That’s also why we have problems with the Chiefs’ heavy favourite status.

It could end up being a lot tighter than the oddsmakers are predicting, which makes Chiefs vs Giants difficult to bet on. We actually see handicap betting on NY +10 as slightly more viable than betting -10 on Kansas City.

Key Players:
QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
WR: Tyreek Hill
TE: Travis Kelce
K: Harrison Butker

New York Giants – stats & recent form

As negative as the last game against the Chiefs went, the Giants’ game against the Panthers went just as positively for them. With a never threatening 25:3 they demonstrated that they have a much better team than the previous results suggested.

There was also a lot of bad luck with injuries in the last weeks. Barkley, Golladay, Shepard, Toney – all of them were absent for longer periods of time and it is still not clear who will make it back into the squad on Monday.

How good is Jones?

One question observers are asking more than anything else is how good quarterback Daniel Jones really is. If we exclude the game against the Rams, when he threw three interceptions, his performances are quite consistent.

Twice he even broke a passer rating of over 100 points (against Washington and New Orleans) and with 229 rushing yards so far he is even one of the best runners of the team. His performance is definitely more consistent than Mahomes’ – who would have thought that?

Focus on the last quarter

However, of course, his talent isn’t even close to Mahomes’, which could already show on Monday. However, speaking in the subjunctive, as Mahomes is currently in a slump. Thus, we best need fallback options as far as betting is concerned.

Here it is noticeable that in both Chiefs and Giants games an extremely large number of points are always scored in the fourth quarter. For the Chiefs, this has been the highest-scoring quarter in three of their seven games, and for the Giants, in five of their first seven games of the season.

Thus, for Chiefs vs Giants, betting on the fourth quarter as the one with the most points is more than a good option.

Key Players:
QB: Daniel Jones
RB: Saquon Barkley
WR: Sterling Shepard
TE: Evan Ingram
K: Graham Gano

Kansas City Chiefs – New York Giants Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

This duel is relatively rare in the NFL, which makes it difficult to look at historically. There have been a full five duels this millennium, with both Mahomes and Jones yet to take the field in a meeting.

So we have to go by current form, which leaves much to be desired from both. While betting on the Chiefs was often a safe bet in the past, we would currently refrain from doing so.

Betting on the fourth quarter as the one with the most points is much more worthwhile. For the Giants, this has been the highest-scoring quarter in five of their last six games. For Kansas City vs. New York, this prediction is unusual but no less promising.

Kansas City Chiefs – New York Giants Tip

Having long resisted recommending bets against Pat Mahomes, we must slowly back away from that stance. We see the -10 points as a handicap that the bookmakers are giving Kansas City as simply too much.

Nevertheless, our favoured betting recommendation is a different one. With Chiefs vs. Giants, the odds on a high-scoring fourth quarter are so high that we should definitely tackle this tip. For both teams it is exactly this quarter that often promises the most points.

Bets on over 52.0 total points are also worth considering. The Chiefs’ defence is currently so weak that even the Giants should score well over 20 points – and since their defence isn’t particularly good either, expect a lot of Chiefs points as well. Nevertheless, we decide to play the betting odds on the high-scoring fourth quarter in the Chiefs vs Giants game.