Does the best offence also overrun the reigning champion?
The best team in the NFL hosts the reigning Super Bowl champion. While the Kansas City Chiefs are fully on course for the playoffs as the leading franchise in the AFC, the Rams season is going as one disappointment. The latter is also slowly but surely over after the seventh loss in the tenth game.
The Chiefs won for the second time in their division last week against the Los Angeles Chargers and put in another strong performance. They are one of only three teams in the league with at least eight wins to their name and have clinched a spot in the AFC West.
Meanwhile, Sean McVay’s team are slowly and quietly taking their leave of the season. After the bye week they lost all four matches and on the back day they lost in the crisis summit against the New Orleans Saints. This leaves them at the bottom of the NFC West division.
Los Angeles’ chances of making it into the postseason are given a probability of 3 % before the game in Missouri. In order to keep this chance alive, a win against the Chiefs is absolutely necessary. A Rams win flushes odds of 8.00 on the betting slip.
Kansas City Chiefs – stats & recent form
With an exceptional player at the most important position in American football, a team is usually always in the tight circle of title contenders. The Chiefs have just such a talent in Patrick Mahomes, who has been flashing again and again this season. So it’s no surprise that Kansas City is once again one of the favourites for the “Vince Lombardi Trophy”.
He’s been playing at an impressive level lately and continues to prove his sheer game awareness. Mahomes thus gives a very high baseline to the offense, which has gotten rolling tremendously despite a few injuries in the meantime. Any team that wants to beat the Chiefs right now will have to put plenty of points on the scoreboard themselves, as KC averages 30 points per game, which is tops in the league. Now comes an offence that averages 16.8 points – and between the Chiefs and Rams, that makes it difficult to predict the visitors.
While the Missouri franchise’s defense is good against the opposing running game, it’s always noticeable that the passing game’s defense is vulnerable. At least 17 points have been allowed by the KC defence to their respective opponents this season, and there are scenarios that Los Angeles can reach those heights as well. Between the Chiefs and Rams, a bet on at least 14 points from the visitors should therefore definitely be kept in mind.
The bookmakers give the home side a handicap of 14.5 points, which is the highest of the entire matchday. The Chiefs have only won by that many points once so far this season.
Key Players:
QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Isiah Pacheco
WR: Marquez Valdes-Scantling
TE: Travis Kelce
K: Harrison Butker
Los Angeles Rams – stats & current form
It was common knowledge that the Rams put everything on the Super Bowl win card last season. The plan worked. However, in a head-to-head comparison of seasons, the drop-off to the new season is all the greater. The reigning champions will probably miss the playoffs. There are many reasons for this, but they are mainly to be found on the offensive side. In the summer, some important departures had to be absorbed, which ensured and still ensure that this unit does not function as it did last year.
The offensive line, which is supposed to protect quarterback Matthew Stafford and buy him time, is one big construction site. This can be proven by the statistic that there are only five playmakers in the entire league who have been brought down more often by the opposing defence. This construction site is also responsible for the fact that Los Angeles has the second-worst running game in the league.
It’s hard to find positives in the visitors’ offence ahead of the Chiefs vs Rams match-up. However, a tip that they can put some points on the scoreboard seems quite interesting. However, it should be noted that LA will definitely have to do without Cooper Kupp. He is on the “Injured Reserve List” and will not be able to return to action for at least three weeks.
Matthew Stafford is also doubtful to play after he was injured in the game against the Saints. His backup would be Bryce Perkins, who already took over against New Orleans, but has only thrown eleven passes in the NFL so far.
If there’s one thing the Rams can rely on, it’s their defence, which is a top-10 unit. They are averaging 22.7 points allowed and have only conceded over 30 points twice.
Key Players:
QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Cam Akers
WR: Allen Robinson
TE: Tyler Higbee
K: Matt Gay
Kansas City Chiefs – Los Angeles Rams Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Since the Rams’ move back from St. Louis to Los Angeles, there has only been one duel and it made numerous headlines. In total 105 points were scored in this match and it ended with 54:51 for LA. In the upcoming clash, the over/under limit is naturally much lower at 44 points. Between the Chiefs and Rams, we tend to tip that more points will be scored overall.
In the game mentioned, Chiefs quarterback Mahomes threw three interceptions, but also threw for six touchdowns. If playmaker Stafford is used on the Rams’ side, this would be his fourth duel with Kansas City. His statistics read promising with eight touchdowns and three interceptions, but he only won once against KC in three attempts with the Detroit Lions.
Kansas City Chiefs – Los Angeles Rams Tip
The impending loss of playmaker Stafford makes it difficult to make a prediction ahead of the Chiefs vs. Rams clash, but we’ll venture one anyway. Due to the uncertain quarterback situation of the visitors, we decide on a tip that is relatively independent of this. We assume that the Chiefs will live up to their role as favourites and in combination with a tip that more than 44.5 points will be scored, odds beyond the 2.00 mark are possible.
If Stafford is available at quarterback for LA, we don’t see it as unrealistic for the visitors to make an impact offensively. However, we don’t see how they can score enough to keep up with the league’s best offense. If both teams manage to score 15 points, extremely attractive betting odds beckon between Chiefs and Rams.
The 14.5-point handicap for the home side is too high in our eyes, because superior teams tend to take their foot off the gas when leading comfortably. That’s why we’re leaning towards the guests with these extra points.
