Will the Chiefs benefit from Rodgers’ absence?

The Chiefs are currently on their last legs, while the Packers are flying away. The fact that the Kansas City Chiefs are still considered the big favourites in this matchup is solely due to the absence of Rodgers, whose vaccination refusal was his undoing.

For Sunday, backup Jordan Love will get his chance instead, which of course sent the odds on Green Bay plummeting. He’s apparently not yet trusted to keep up with counterpart Pat Mahomes.

We also don’t think the Packers will be as dangerous with Love as they were with Rodgers. However, whether the Chiefs can pull off the expected easy win and rebound is up to them.

After all, the offensive performance against the Giants was nothing to write home about. At some point, however, the knot has to burst again for Mahomes, which leads us to predict a home win for Chiefs vs. Packers. Sunday could be it and we’ll see the old Pat Mahomes again.

Kickoff of this interesting clash is Sunday night at 10:25 p.m. The game can be watched live on ProSieben Maxx and on DAZN.

Kansas City Chiefs – Statistics & current form

The Chiefs are stumbling through the season and yet somehow stand at 4-4 wins. So all chances of a playoff qualification are still there and without a real over team in the AFC even far more is possible.

But they also acquired Melvin Ingram from the Steelers as a new pass rusher during the week, which should give their spotty defence a bit more stability. If they actually manage to stabilise it, then a deep playoff run is also possible.

Chiefs need to step it up

But one step at a time. But now they face three really tough opponents in the form of the Packers, the Raiders and the Cowboys, at least two of whom they should beat. So it’s a good thing that their opponents won’t be at their best on Sunday.

If the Chiefs had an Aaron Rodgers in front of them in his current form, then they would have gone into the game as clear underdogs – even at home. Now Kansas is considered a 7-point favourite against the Packers with Jordan Love. Rightfully so, of course, as the latter has only thrown seven passes in his entire NFL career.

Defense improved against Rodgers-less Packers?

Against the Packers with Love, their defense should at least manage to not allow over 30 points even against a top team. Against the last two real top teams (Ravens, Bills) this endeavour went horribly wrong with 36 and 38 conceded points.

But against the Packers, the Chiefs should be able to do that. We don’t expect Green Bay to score much over 20 points. Since we trust Mahomes to score well over 25 points at any time, the -7 to -8 point margin of victory is also justified.

Nevertheless, a bet on Chiefs + Over points is our preferred betting option for Chiefs vs. Packers. On the one hand, the value seems even higher, on the other hand, the weak Chiefs defence could make it a closer match than we all think.

Key Players:
QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
WR: Tyreek Hill
TE: Travis Kelce
K: Harrison Butker

Green Bay Packers – stats & current form

That was quite a downer during the week when it was announced that Aaron Rodgers would be out covid-related. In addition to the harsh criticism of his vaccination status, this naturally brings all kinds of sporting problems to Green Bay.

Now, of all times, when things are going so well, this is rather unfortunate. The win against the Cardinals last Thursday had also crowned their season to date and made them the new No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Without Rodgers now without a chance?

The question now will be whether backup quarterback Jordan Love can carry that positive momentum and give the Packers a chance to win against the Chiefs. Doubts about that are definitely warranted.

In his entire career, Love has only made two appearances, none of them as a starter. Accordingly, you won’t find a touchdown on his CV, while a fumble has already been listed. Not the best prerequisites against Kansas City.

Will their defence hold up again?

The Packers have scored 24 or 25 points in each of their last four games, which suggests some consistency, but not at the highest level. That’s why it’s important to hold the Chiefs to under 25 points to maintain a chance of winning.

We see that as a difficult task, especially since two starters, Lowry and Keke, are questionable and linebacker Smith is still out. We would be surprised if they manage to keep Mahomes and Co. under 25 points.

Thus, with Chiefs vs. Packers, the odds on Kansas City are as much to be taken advantage of as the odds on over-points. Because scoring under 47.5 total points with these good offensive weapons on both sides (Hill, Kelce, Adams, Jones) is also something we see as questionable.

Key Players:
QB: Jordan Love
RB: Aaron Jones
WR: Davante Adams
TE: Mercedes Lewis
K: Mason Crosby

Kansas City Chiefs – Green Bay Packers Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

This duel only happens once every few years in the NFL, which is why it has never come to the  exciting duel Mahomes vs. Rodgers. In 2015, Mahomes was not yet in the league and in 2019 he was out with injury. This year, Rodgers’ absence puts a spanner in the works of that scenario.

Therefore, past duels are not as meaningful. So we have to take the loss of Aaron Rodgers and the weak Chiefs defence as clues. We see the weakening of the Packers as more serious, which is why Kansas City is the clear favourite for us.

Kansas City Chiefs – Green Bay Packers Tip

The Packers without Aaron Rodgers: What was definitely considered a realistic scenario during the summer break is now coming true due to other circumstances. With that, Green Bay can see if they are indeed competitive without their MVP.

At least for Sunday, we dare to doubt that a little bit, as the Chiefs enter with plenty of upgrade potential compared to their previous performances. We see a tip on the Chiefs in Kansas City vs. Green Bay as inevitable.

Bets on a Tyreek Hill touchdown are also worth considering. Hill has scored five touchdowns in the last five games, including last Monday against the Giants.