Will the Chiefs win the duel between the top teams?
Two of the NFL’s biggest names will face off in the Thursday Night Game on the third day of the preseason. The Kansas City Chiefs should see Patrick Mahomes get some minutes again, while Aaron Rodgers is traditionally not used.
This means that the Chiefs go into the game with a slight advantage, which already secured them the victory against Washington on the previous matchday. After all, Mahomes scored two touchdowns, a lead that the second guard then brought home in the end.
But it won’t be quite that clear-cut against Green Bay, as their second guard around Jordan Love is a tad stronger than the Chiefs’. So it could be a question of whether Kansas City will be able to defend its lead from half time again.
For Chiefs vs. Packers, our prediction is that they will succeed and win the game by a narrow margin. They are likely to win the first half, Green Bay the second. These are some of the bets you can make on the game.
Kansas City Chiefs – Statistics & current form
Lost to the Bears, won against the Commanders. That is the Chiefs’ preseason record so far. The difference between the two games was, among other things, the playing time of Pat Mahomes.
Against Chicago he was only allowed on the field for one drive, which he promptly completed with a touchdown, against Washington it was already three, which he finished with a 14:0. If the lead was not enough in Game 1, his two touchdowns against the Commanders were enough in the end.
How long does Mahomes get to go?
So the equation for Chiefs games in the preseason is: the longer Pat Mahomes is on the field, the better the chances of winning. Since we expect him to have a few drives again on Thursday, we see Kansas City ahead in the end as well.
They also let a lot of other starters with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ronald Jones II, Travis Kelce, Marquez Valdez-Scantling or Skyy Moore onto the field already. Another indication that they want to take advantage of the chance to play in the preseason.
Umbreak takes time to get used to
This makes perfect sense, too, as there were a number of changes to the squad in the off-season. Important pillars like Tyreek Hill or Tyrann Mathieu left the team, other players like Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdez-Scantling or Ronald Jones II joined.
So it makes sense to get especially the rookies used to their teammates already in the preseason – on a competitive level. Since the Packers are doing less of that, a bet on the Chiefs is our preferred betting option for Kansas City vs. Green Bay.
Key Players:
QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
WR: Marquez Valdez-Scantling
TE: Travis Kelce
K: Harrison Butker
Green Bay Packers – Statistics & current form
While the Chiefs needed the help of Mahomes, Kelce and Co. to get their first win of the preseason, the backups around quarterback Jordan Love (20:10 against the Saints) did it for Green Bay. So the second guard is sitting with the Packers, which is good to know for the start of the season.
They were still a little bumpy offensively, but defensively they were very strong, especially in the second half, which could also pose problems for Mahomes and his colleagues. In contrast to the offense, some of the starters are already on the field in the preseason.
Jordan Love with starring role
So Aaron Rodgers backup Jordan Love had his hands full last weekend against New Orleans, being on the turf for nearly every snap. His replacement Danny Etling threw just a single pass.
It is clear that the Packers want to build a successor for Rodgers here and after clear problems in the first game (3 interceptions), he already looked very stable in his second appearance. However, the task of Kansas City should now be a little more difficult.
Do the Packers also bring in a starter or two?
The question will be whether Green Bay will still spare their best starters or whether we will see Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon or Allen Lazard on Thursday. It was clear from the start that Aaron Rodgers would miss out again, as he has only played very few preseasons in his career.
We doubt that we will see many of the Packers stars on the field against Kansas City, which is why we consider them slight underdogs. Since the bookies don’t think so, there are good odds on a success for Mahomes and Co. for Chiefs vs. Packers.
Key Players:
QB: Jordan Love
RB: Tyler Goodson
WR: Amari Rodgers
TE: Nate Becker
K: Ramiz Ahmed
Kansas City Chiefs – Green Bay Packers Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
In the regular season there was a win for the Chiefs in 2021 – in an absolute low scoring game. 13:7 was the final score and although traditionally fewer points are scored in the preseason, we strongly expect a higher score on Thursday.
The last game of the Chiefs (24:14) saw 38 total points, the first of the Packers (21:28) even 49. Therefore, the 36.0 estimated by the betting companies are already very low. This mark should also be clearly reached thanks to Mahomes.
Thus, for Kansas City against Green Bay, the odds on both the Chiefs and on over-points are good options. In addition, betting on the Chiefs to get off to a good start could be worthwhile, as they are likely to field their top stars in the first quarters.
Kansas City Chiefs – Green Bay Packers Tip
Although the Chiefs will be fielding significantly more starters and have a home game, they are considered slight underdogs by bettors. We don’t see it that way and are thus clearly betting on them as favourites.
Even if the Packers’ second guard is strong, Mahomes and Co. should already have established a big enough lead. For Chiefs vs. Packers, a bet on Kansas City is thus our clear betting recommendation, especially with this great value.
As an alternative, we have already put over-points into play. Games with Mahomes always promise points and if he will again be on the field for at least three drives, then Over 36.0 should be a number that will be surpassed.
