Does the Chiefs’ series against Denver continue?
Thursday Night Game means thrashing on Thursday – at least if we use the statistics for our Chiefs vs Broncos tip. Denver has lost 15 straight against Kansas City, and there’s no end in sight to that streak this week.
The Broncos are currently playing too weak, especially defensively, although a lot has been invested there. But with 36.2 points conceded and 450.6 yards allowed per game, they rank last in the NFL in both statistics by a wide margin.
Of all things, they have a Pat Mahomes coming at them at Arrowhead Stadium, who is getting in better shape after all and is starting to click with his new receiving corps. All in all, not good conditions for the Denver Broncos.
That’s why our prediction for Chiefs vs Broncos is an unchallenged win for the home team, who will thus have the upper hand against Denver for the 16th time in a row. Due to the Broncos’ defensive weakness, it should also be a fairly high-scoring game.
Kickoff of this AFC West duel is Friday night at 02:15 in Kansas City. The game can be watched live on DAZN.
Kansas City Chiefs – statistics & current form
The Kansas City Chiefs are finally in their stride. The unexpected opening loss to the Lions has now been followed by four wins, although the one against the Jets wasn’t too convincing either. Their dominance of earlier years seems to have weakened somewhat.
Now, however, their favorite opponents from Denver are coming to the Arrowhead and a somewhat clearer success should be possible. The bookmakers think so too, giving them a proud 10.5 points as a handicap. That in turn could be almost too much for handicap betting.
Chiefs win lackluster
They’ve only managed more than a ten-point differential once this season, and that was against the weak Bears. In this respect, it could now be tighter against Denver than Mahomes and Co. would like.
However, we expect the Chiefs to win in the end. While their offense still hangs in the balance from time to time, their defense is on top of its game. Only 16.0 conceded points per game means a top 5 value in the NFL. They haven’t had that in Kansas City in a while.
What are the betting options?
If we don’t trust them with a double-digit win margin now, but also don’t want to bet against the Chiefs (which we shouldn’t), then we need other betting options. One would certainly be half-time/final score, although the odds for that are also rather low.
Therefore, for Kansas City vs Denver, odds on Chiefs + Over 44.5 total points are our choice. Bwin fortunately offers a very nice gradation in the total points here and Over 44.5 it should be with Pat Mahomes at the helm in the end already.
Key Players:
- QB: Patrick Mahomes
- RB: Isiah Pacheco
- WR: Kadarius Toney
- TE: Travis Kelce
- K: Harrison Butker
Denver Broncos – stats & recent form
The Broncos once again squandered a lead. Again against the Jets they were ahead at halftime (13:8), but just like against the Raiders and the Commanders they couldn’t get it over the finish line. Had they always been able to do that, the mood would be completely different with a 4-1 record.
As it is, however, Head Coach Sean Payton is already down for the count. Now, in the next four weeks, they have to face their fearsome opponents Kansas City twice and then the Bills. Accordingly, it could be a crashing false start for the Broncos.
Where is the defense?
If a commercial in the 90s once asked where the Deinhardt was, we’re currently asking that question about the Broncos defense. Of course, the 20-70 loss to the Dolphins clouds any stats a bit, but even without that game, the Broncos would be at the bottom of the league’s defensive standings.
They are simply too susceptible, especially against the run (187.6 yards per game). Well, the Chiefs are not considered the best running team now, but with 123.0 yards they have already taken a big step forward there this season. Not a good outlook for Denver.
Offense showing positive signs
Offensively, we don’t want to get too down on them right now, because there are some positive signs there. Russell Wilson is playing much safer than last year and is actually doing very well with a passer rating of 106.1 points.
They seem to have found a surprising No. 1 running back in Jaleel McLaughlin, and their remaining wide receivers are currently uninjured as well. But are these points enough to keep up with Mahomes and the Chiefs in terms of points?
At least to keep the game somewhat open, which is why we consider the 10.5 point handicap a bold one. Still, for Kansas City vs. Denver, a bet on the Chiefs + over points is more recommended than any bets on the Broncos.
Key Players:
- QB: Russell Wilson
- RB: Jaleel McLaughlin
- WR: Jerry Jeudy
- TE: Adam Trautman
- K: Wil Lutz
Kansas City Chiefs – Denver Broncos head-to-head comparison / H2H record
We have already mentioned the very demoralizing statistics for Denver. The last 15 duels in this matchup all went to the Chiefs. Denver’s last win was over eight years ago, dating back to September 2015.
That and the Chiefs’ current slightly better form speak a clear language in favor of the home team. For Denver to even come close to a win, their defense has to deliver – generate fumbles, interceptions – but they are currently a bit far away from that.
So for Chiefs vs. Broncos, odds on Kansas City + Over Points or as a halftime/final result are our favorite betting options.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos betting tips
How can the Broncos stop the series against the Chiefs? In our eyes, currently not. Maybe we’ll talk about it differently in three weeks, when the Broncos continue their slight upward trend and then play at home. On Thursday, however, it will be difficult.
For Chiefs vs. Broncos, our No.1 bet is on Kansas City + Over 44.5 total points, a bet that would still be playable even if Kelce had to pass due to his bruised ankle.
However, we are now initially assuming that Kelce will play. And then, of course, alternate picks on a Travis Kelce touchdown are recommended. He’s already scored three touchdowns this season after a sluggish start and looks to continue that in front of his Taylor Swift on Thursday.
