Will the Chiefs keep their perfect record in the division duel too?
8:0 and the Chiefs party goes on and on. Will the Chiefs actually end up with an unbeaten season? We will shed light on that and give you the best betting recommendations in our Chiefs vs. Broncos tip for NFL Game Day 10 on Sunday.
The reigning champion is the only team still without a defeat and most experts expect that at most the Bills will be able to beat them. Nobody expects the Broncos to win. Why not, after all, they won the last game clearly 24-9.
In general, the two duels in the preseason were a bit strange. With 27 and 33 total points, they were absolute low scoring games and Patrick Mahomes had a hard time in these games. So he only had passer ratings of 94.4 and 59.1.
Against this Broncos defense, it might not be that easy on Sunday either, which is why we again have a rather low scoring game on the slate. That’s why our prediction for Chiefs vs. Broncos is a rather narrow victory for the champions, which should definitely not be in double digits.
Kickoff of this AFC West game is on Sunday at 7:00 p.m. in Kansas City. The game can be watched live on DAZN.
Kansas City Chiefs – Statistics & current form
How are the Chiefs doing it? And no, we’re not jumping on the bandwagon that they have the help of the referees, because that’s just not the case. There was a small offside mistake in their favor towards the end against the Bucs, but they were actually disadvantaged over the course of the game.
Especially for tips, we have to be careful to approach them rationally and not follow the general outcry, which is often much too emotionally charged. The Chiefs are just clever and can shift up a gear when it counts.
Mahomes following in Brady’s footsteps
Sure, Mahomes is not playing perfectly this season – and yet he is still winning his games. In doing so, he is following in the footsteps of Brady, who was also always said to only do the bare minimum. Kansas City only managed two of these first eight wins by more than one score difference.
They only managed to win by more than ten points once – against the injury-plagued Saints. In this respect, the clear handicap of 8.5 does surprise us a little. At least we can work with that as far as tips are concerned.
Tips on Chiefs vs. Broncos playable as combinations
8.5 points as a handicap, we see that as neither half nor whole. That’s why we’re increasing that number to 10.5 in favor of the Broncos, to secure a touchdown and a field goal as a lead. Then we combine that number with over 1.5 field goals and we already have an impressive rate.
Why 1.5 field goals? Because the Broncos have a top 10 kicker in their ranks. Will Lutz has already scored 18 field goals (fifth most in the NFL). The 1.5 field goals we have set should therefore also be achieved on Sunday.
Key Players:
- QB: Patrick Mahomes
- RB: Kareem Hunt
- WR: DeAndre Hopkins
- TE: Travis Kelce
- K: Harrison Butker
Denver Broncos – Statistics & current form
The Broncos are still on track. With a 5-4 record, they are still in the running for the playoffs and their easier opponents won’t come until week 13 (Raiders, Browns, Colts). Every win they get before then can be seen as an extra.
Especially against Kansas City, of course, hardly anyone expects a success. However, that was also the case last year, when the Broncos were able to win the second duel by a surprising 24-9. Their defense caught two interceptions from Mahomes and thus initiated the victory.
Surprise not excluded
The fact that the Broncos are not without a chance on Sunday can already be seen from the statistics. This season, the Broncos have already intercepted seven passes from opposing quarterbacks – Mahomes himself has thrown nine interceptions.
So if their defense manages to force another turnover or two, we should at least get to see an exciting game. Since we don’t expect the score to be too high either, the winning margin shouldn’t get out of hand.
Low Scoring Game probably
The last two duels between these teams saw an average of only 30.0 total points. In general, only 38.2 total points have been scored on average in Broncos games this season. And what do we know: the fewer total points, the closer the games usually are.
This means that the odds for Kansas City vs. Denver are playable on under-points – but also on the Broncos +8.5. However, we would rather avoid betting on a Denver win, as the Chiefs usually find a way to win the games in the end.
Key Players:
- QB: Bo Nix
- RB: Javonte Williams
- WR: Courtland Sutton
- TE: Adam Trautman
- K: Wil Lutz
Kansas City Chiefs – Denver Broncos Head-to-head record
Last year, both teams won one game each. Before that, however, the Chiefs won an incredible 15 straight games. Takeaway: For years, the Broncos were one of their favorite opponents.
However, since the Broncos were able to break this streak last October, we would not give this statistic too much weight. Rather, it is interesting to note that the Chiefs rarely win by a large margin this season. They have only won once by more than 10.5 points.
This makes the betting odds on Broncos +10.5 very interesting for Chiefs against Broncos. To increase the value, we can also combine this number with under-points or with over 1.5 field goals for Denver. Both variants make sense to us.
Kansas City Chiefs – Denver Broncos Tip
How much do we trust the Broncos after the clear defeat against the Ravens? Significantly more this week, because unlike the Ravens, the Chiefs are not known for shooting down their opponents. They tend to win at a leisurely pace.
That makes our favorite bet for Chiefs vs. Broncos +10.5 in combination with Over 1.5 field goals. A somewhat unusual bet, but Chiefs games this season are not any different and the Broncos have one of the top 5 kickers in the league in Will Lutz.
Alternatively, we still have a player bet this week. We recommend betting on a touchdown from DeAndre Hopkins. He seems to have arrived in Kansas City and found the end zone twice in just his second game.
