Will it come to the next score between Mahomes and Allen?
The two absolute top teams in the AFC cross swords on Sunday night in Kansas City. The NFL community has been looking forward to the Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen duel for weeks. Because despite a Brady or Rodgers, the experts agree that these are currently the two best quarterbacks in the league.
In addition, the Chiefs’ duel against the Bills is also the anticipated AFC Championship Game next January. The two already met in the last playoffs and it developed into one of the best playoff games of all time (42:36 n.V. for the Chiefs).
All three of the last duels between these two teams saw a lot of points, so at least 58 were scored each time, with the Chiefs winning two of those three games. Now on Sunday, however, they are surprisingly not considered the favourites at home.
But we can delete the “surprisingly”, the way the Bills are cruising through the season so far. For Kansas City vs. Buffalo, our prediction is therefore also another football highlight, in which a defensive stop or a big play could mean victory for a team at the end.
Kickoff of the top duel of NFL Game Week 6 is on Sunday at 10:25 pm in Kansas City. The game can be followed live on ProSieben, on ran.de and on DAZN ENDZN.
Kansas City Chiefs – Statistics & current form
A win is a win will be on the minds of the Kansas City Chiefs after their razor-thin 30-29 win over the Raiders. Above all, they will be looking to build on their strong second half when they now face the league’s uber-team.
They definitely can’t afford an 0:17 start against Buffalo. Overall, the Chiefs don’t look as solid as the Bills have so far. In their five games this season, three have been very mixed. At least they were able to win two of those three in the end – against the Chargers as well as against the Raiders.
Mahomes with problems against tough defenses
The matchup against Buffalo doesn’t necessarily suit the Chiefs. They already have the best defence in the league this season (12.2 points conceded per game). The KC defence can only dream of that, allowing 25.0 points per game.
That’s more than twice as many and also prompts us to anchor the favourite status here on the side of the Bills. Because even in an offensively-driven game, which is what we’re assuming, it’s often defensive actions that make the difference in the end.
Is it going to be another shootout?
The whole world is expecting an incredible high scoring game on Sunday. The question will be whether both teams stick to it. After all, with 31.8 (Chiefs) and 30.4 (Bills) points scored, the two best offenses in the NFL meet here.
We don’t want to predict whether the 60-point mark will be reached again, but the projected 54 to 54.5 points are definitely possible. Thus, for Chiefs vs. Bills, a bet on both Buffalo and over points is an option. We get the best value when we combine both options.
Key Players:
QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
WR: Juju Smith-Schuster
TE: Travis Kelce
K: Harrison Butker
Buffalo Bills – stats & current form
The Bills don’t give the impression they are having much trouble scoring points at the moment. They glide through the buttery defensive lines of their opponents like a hot knife. After only one half against Pittsburgh they had 400 yards and 31 points.
The fact that the final score was “only” 38:3 was also due to the fact that they switched down a gear in the second half in order not to injure themselves. Against the Chiefs, however, they won’t switch down at any time, no matter what the score is.
Offense hui – Defence hui
A lot of teams have a focus in terms of their strengths. For example, the Lions have a top offense but also the weakest defense in the entire league. That’s not the case with the Bills. They have the best defence and the second-best offence – a dream combination.
This point is clearly ahead of their upcoming opponents from Kansas City, who have not been able to put one of the top 5 defenses on the field for years. Thus, Buffalo is also considered by the betting companies to be the top candidate for the Super Bowl.
Weakness in the Rushing Game?
If we’re going to pinpoint a slight weakness at all with the Bills, it’s their rushing game, where they rank just 14th in the NFL with 116.4 yards gained. However, who needs more rushing game when you have Josh Allen and this high scoring offense.
Still, it will be interesting to see if they will use a little more running game against the Chiefs or not. We don’t expect them to, as the Chiefs are much better against the run than they are against the pass. That then argues for a pass dominated game, which could drive up the points.
This is another reason why we think the 54 total points assessed is too low. Over 54 points are definitely possible in this matchup, which more than lends itself to Buffalo + Over 54 odds on Chiefs vs. Bills.
Key Players:
QB: Josh Allen
RB: Devin Singletary
WR: Stefon Diggs
TE: Dawson Knox
K: Tyler Bass
Kansas City Chiefs – Buffalo Bills Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Three of the last five meetings went to the Chiefs, including the two in the playoffs. Nevertheless, these games were also very close and the last duel in January went to Kansas City solely because of the overtime rule (which, by the way, was specially changed for this season for this reason).
This defeat is likely to have a deep impact on Josh Allen and the Bills, which is why we expect them to be a few percentage points more motivated than the Chiefs. If they don’t convert that into penalties but into points, then we also see Buffalo in front.
So for Chiefs vs. Bills a bet on the away team is a good betting option, whereby we can also give the Bills a handicap of -3. Or we can just combine the bet with over points, which is our favoured option.
Kansas City Chiefs – Buffalo Bills Tip
No.1 Offense Meets No.2 Offense. That’s certainly one of the headlines this game comes under, and no matter how good the Bills’ defense is, the over points appear to be a sure thing.
However, this best defence could be decisive for success – for example with an interception or even a defensive touchdown. For Kansas City vs. Buffalo, the betting odds on Bills + Over Points are thus our bet of choice.
Betting on a Travis Kelce touchdown is also a good option. He scored four touchdowns against the Raiders last time out, so he should be able to score at least one against Buffalo.
