Will the Bills exacerbate the Chiefs crisis or vice versa?
In the run-up to this season, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills were considered contenders for Super Bowl LVIII. However, the season so far has not gone according to plan for either team. While the franchise led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes still has a realistic chance of securing the first seed in the AFC with an 8-4 record, the Bills with playmaker Josh Allen even have to fear for their participation in the NFL playoffs. Head coach Sean McDermott’s team currently stands at just a .500 record, with six wins and the same number of losses.
The upcoming top game in NFL Week 14 brings with it plenty of excitement, drama and explosiveness. After all, the two franchises have delivered outstanding duels at a great (offensive) level in recent years. On Sunday evening, however, the defenses also seem to have a major say when it comes to who lands the big point. However, because the 48.5 point line is still very high, there are some experts who prefer a bet of 48 points or less in the Chiefs’ game against the Bills.
The fact is that both teams are currently struggling with some problems. Kansas City simply can’t get its offense rolling and is also without its best running back Isiah Pacheco. Buffalo is well ahead in almost all relevant statistics in NFL comparisons, but ultimately loses the ball too often. In close games, it is often the wrong decisions that have prevented a higher win percentage so far. In the following paragraphs, you can find out why we are nevertheless aiming for a Chiefs vs. Bills away win at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday evening from 10:25 p.m.
Kansas City Chiefs – stats & current form
With two MVP trophies, two Super Bowls and two Super Bowl MVP awards, Patrick Mahomes is the most successful and, for many, the best quarterback of the modern era. The 28-year-old would like to play for the coveted Vince Lombardi Trophy again in Nevada at the beginning of February. However, the road ahead is a rocky one, as recent impressions have seen Kansas City fall behind the San Francisco 49ers in the favor of the leading bookmakers.
The main reason for this is the anything but consistent performances of recent weeks. They have lost three of their last five matches. In the last SNF match, for example, the Chiefs lost 19:27 to the Packers and once again fell short of their own expectations. On a positive note, however, the reigning Super Bowl winners have never lost two games in a row over the entire season. Nevertheless, their home record of four wins and two defeats still reads like there is room for improvement
Mahomes can’t get his offense rolling
Who would have thought that we would be reporting on the offense as the Red-Gold-White’s biggest construction site at this point? In fact, Pat Mahomes does not currently lead a top 10 scoring offense. The average of just under 23 points scored is only enough for eleventh place in the league rankings. Kansas City has scored a maximum of 21 points in four of its last five games. The star quarterback has not had a game with 300+ yards or at least three passing TDs since mid-October. Last week against the Packers, Mahomes ended up with just over 200 yards, one TD, one interception and three sacks.
However, blaming the league’s superstar solely for the slump in form would be the wrong approach. The receiver cast is simply not Super Bowl-ready. With the exception of shooting star Rashee Rice and tight end Travis Kelce, Mahomes can’t really rely on any wide receiver. To make matters worse, top running back Isiah Pacheco will be out with a shoulder injury. This means that the already mediocre running game will lose even more quality, and the play action plays that are so important to Mahomes will also be negatively affected. Against this backdrop, it is quite possible that the home side will suffer the next setback and that the odds on a win for the visitors in the clash between the Chiefs and the Bills will come true.
Predicted Kansas City Chiefs lineup:
- QB: Patrick Mahomes
- RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaira
- WR: Rashee Rice
- WR: Justin Watson
- TE: Travis Kelce
- K: Harrison Butker
Buffalo Bills – stats & current form
Averaging 27.3 points, the Buffalo Bills continue to have the fifth-best scoring offense in the NFL. When it comes to converting third downs into new first downs, Sean McDermott’s team even ranks right at the top. Second place in the red zone rounds off the outstanding offensive statistics. However, anyone who believes that the defense is the weak point of this team is mistaken. The average of only 18.9 points conceded, a top five pass rush and the second most turnovers forced also read incredibly well.
In view of these strong statistics, one could easily get the idea that the Bills might have a 10:2/11:1 record. But that’s not the case! They have six wins and six losses to date. In the AFC East, the men from the second-largest city in the US state of New York are therefore only in second place behind the dominant Miami Dolphins. Because the remaining program with matches against the Cowboys or the Dolphins still has a lot to offer, Josh Allen and his colleagues must be careful not to miss the departure of the playoff train
Ball losses remain the tiresome topic
The aforementioned Josh Allen is both a curse and a blessing at the moment. The quarterback plays a decisive role in answering the question as to why the Bills only have a .500 record despite the top stats mentioned above. The 27-year-old two-time Pro Bowler has already caused 16 turnovers this season. He threw 13 interceptions and also had three fumbles. In general, the 20 turnovers are the Bills’ biggest deficit. If they can get this obvious weakness under control, they will become a Super Bowl contender from now on.
The fact that Sean McDermott and his coaching staff have now had two weeks to make adjustments certainly gives them hope. Buffalo is coming off a bye week and has therefore had much more preparation/regeneration time than Kansas City. This fact can be cited as an argument when it comes to justifying a prediction of an away win between the Chiefs and the Bills.
We also see advantages with the receivers. Diggs, Davis or Kincaid are definitely capable of causing problems for KC’s secondary. Running back Cook is also improving and has averaged more than four yards in five of the past seven games. And the Chiefs defense doesn’t always look good against the run.
Predicted Buffalo Bills lineup:
- QB: Josh Allen
- RB: James Cook
- WR: Stefon Diggs
- WR: Gabe Davis
- TE: Dalton Kincaid
- K: Tyler Bass
Kansas City Chiefs – Buffalo Bills head-to-head comparison / H2H record
We still have fond memories of the last two meetings. Last year, the Bills came out on top against the Chiefs 24:20. Josh Allen threw three touchdowns and no interceptions. Mahomes had two TDs and two INTs after four quarters. The Bills also got revenge for the offensive spectacle in the 2022 playoffs, when Kansas City prevailed 42-36 after overtime and advanced to the championship game.
Kansas City Chiefs – Buffalo Bills betting tip
In the entire NFL, there is only one quarterback who has managed to defeat Patrick Mahomes twice at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs’ home stadium: Josh Allen! The Buffalo Bills playmaker is aiming for his third success on Sunday evening. Such a victory would be of immense importance for the 6-6 Bills. But Kansas City will also be hoping for a triumph to keep their eyes on the first seed in the AFC. We can therefore expect an exciting and intense match between the Chiefs and the Bills, ahead of which the betting odds on the two-way market are close.
In the last few days, the odds on Buffalo to win have even fallen a little, which is probably primarily due to the absence of Pacheco on the home side. In fact, we are not averse to placing a bet on the visitors. The Bills are ahead of the Chiefs in many relevant statistics. Mahomes has had big problems getting his offense rolling recently and the pressure of Buffalo’s good pass rush as well as the disappointing receiver cast could put the two-time MVP in trouble again
We’re therefore pushing the betting tip in the Chiefs’ clash against the Bills that the supposed underdog will win by at least three points.
