Will Saturday lead the Colts back to winning ways?

The Colts and the Steelers have one thing in common: their fickleness. Sometimes they both play like clear playoff teams, then again they get real clobberings from mid-tier teams. The Colts were also the first team a fortnight ago now to respond to this lack of consistency.

They fired their long-time head coach Frank Reich and installed a new coach who was quite unknown until then: Jeff Saturday. This measure was initially sharply criticised, but the performance in the first two games under Saturday so far prove the front office right.

The Colts finally won against the Raiders and against the over-team from Philadelphia they lost rather unluckily in the last minute. So Indianapolis has also regained some composure. For the Steelers, that break may be yet to come.

With a record of 3-7 wins, they are at the bottom of the AFC North and even if coach Mike Tomlin has been promised a rebuilding phase, it should not be completely disastrous. For Indianapolis vs. Pittsburgh, our forecast is therefore also a home win due to the stabilisation of the Colts.

Kickoff of the AFC duel of the lower table region is on Tuesday night at 02:15 in Indianapolis. The game can be watched live on DAZN.

Indianapolis Colts – Statistics & current form

1:1 is the record of new coach Jeff Saturday so far, but by a hair’s breadth he still kept his clean slate. A few minutes before the end, the Colts led 13:10 and were close to the Eagles’ end zone.

But then, once again, Matt Ryan’s nerves failed him and it remained a field goal, which inevitably led to the 16:17 defeat. It was not the first time that Ryan fumbled shortly before the goal. In 2017 in the Super Bowl against the Patriots and the following year in the first round of the playoffs against the Eagles, the exact same thing happened to him.

Matt Ryan far from Matty Ice

While the re-installation of Matt Ryan has also led to a new security in the team, his weaknesses in decisive moments have remained. He often just doesn’t manage to put the lid on games.

Nevertheless, we do not only want to highlight the negative aspects of his game. With a completion percentage of 69.2%, he is among the top 5 in the NFL in this statistic and his 271.4 passing yards per game are also a good value.

However, with ten touchdowns, he’s also already at nine interceptions, which carves into the same notch we’ve already addressed. He makes too many mistakes – and often at crucial moments (see also the game against the Texans on Game Day 1).

Defence and Taylor the guarantors of victory

The Colts still have four wins to their credit, thanks to running back Jonathan Taylor and the Colts defence. They hold their opponents to 20.0 points per game, allowing 4.4 points less than the Steelers.

This is exactly the point that can lead to success on Sunday. However, since both offenses have been very weak lately (15.7 and 17.0 points per game), betting on the Colts against the Steelers is even more recommended than betting on Indianapolis.

Key Players:
QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Jonathan Taylor
WR: Michael Pittman Jr.
TE: Mo Alie-Cox
K: Chase McLaughlin

Pittsburgh Steelers – stats & recent form

After the last loss against the Bengals, playoff qualification has become a distant memory for Pittsburgh. For the first time under Mike Tomlin, the team will end up with a negative record and the question is how patient the front office is.

However, there are good signs. That was evident in the win over the Saints, but also in the 30-37 loss to the strong Bengals. Nevertheless, this game was atypical for Pittsburgh, as neither the 30 points scored up front nor the 37 conceded at the back are the norm.

T.J. Watt gives defence new push

This may sound strange after conceding 37 points, but the Steelers’ defence has clearly gained momentum with the return of T.J. Watt. So we expect that to be reflected on the scoreboard on Monday as well.

We expect a clear low-scoring game, as the Colts are not a team that regularly puts up more than 20 points. On the contrary, the Colts have only managed this in one of the last five games, the Steelers in two.

Both teams, however, rank in the bottom five league-wide in terms of points scored. The Steelers are scoring 17.0 points per game, the Colts just 15.7. That 32.7 combined is actually a good indication of where things might be headed on Monday.

Who should score?

So for Colts vs. Steelers a bet on under 39.0 points is our favourite bet. The question is who is going to score the points in the end. While the Colts still have the top running back of the preseason in their ranks, things look darker for Pittsburgh.

Chase Claypool was traded away during the season and running back Najee Harris is still playing far below expectations (despite two TDs on Sunday). Only rookie George Pickens is making positive statements more often, which also makes betting on a touchdown from him an underdog betting option.

Key Players:
QB: Kenny Pickett
RB: Najee Harris
WR: George Pickens
TE: Pat Freiermuth
K: Chris Boswell

Indianapolis Colts – Pittsburgh Steelers head-to-head comparison / H2H record

The head-to-head comparison in this matchup clearly goes to the Steelers. The last seven meetings have all been won by Pittsburgh, including three games in Indianapolis. A reason to prefer under-point bets to those per Colts.

Even if the last game delivered a total of 52 points with 28:24. At that time, however, both teams were still playoff teams and the Steelers had Big Ben in their ranks. Current quarterback Kenny Pickens is miles away from his aplomb.

So the 39 total points assessed still seems a little high to us, which makes the odds on subpar points very playable in Indianapolis vs Pittsburgh. With these two wonder bags, win bets would also be just a little too much of an uncertainty factor.

Indianapolis Colts – Pittsburgh Steelers Tip

The Colts are considered the favourites and we go along with that assessment. For all those who like to bet on a win, betting on Indy is therefore also possible, although not necessarily recommended as option no.1. They are favourites, however, simply because Jonathan Taylor is getting into better and better shape.

From our point of view, the better option is to bet on Indianapolis vs. the Colts with under 39 total points. When both teams average under 18 points, it’s rare that a high scoring game comes out of it.

However, another betting option is also possible: betting on Over 3 Field Goals. With both teams struggling to score, the kickers will play a more important role and every field goal is worth its weight in gold. This usually leads to an increase in field goals.