Will the Chargers continue their upward trend in Indianapolis?
The Indianapolis Colts and the Los Angeles Chargers conclude the 16th day of play in the National Football League in the Monday Night Game. The odds of the bookmakers see the guests in front, which can also be justified by the fact that the home side made involuntary NFL history last week.
It was all going like clockwork for interim head coach Jeff Saturday’s team last Saturday as they took a 33-0 lead into the half-time break against Minnesota. What followed was the biggest comeback in NFL history and they still ended up losing 36-39 to the Vikings.
The Chargers, on the other hand, took on the Titans in Week 15 and confirmed their upward form in a defensive-minded 17-14 win. With this success, Los Angeles catapulted themselves into a playoff spot in the AFC.
That the role of favourite is given to the guests is absolutely understandable given the omens. However, betting on an LA win between the Colts and Chargers brings odds of 1.50 at the most.
Indianapolis Colts – Statistics & current form
“He who does the damage doesn’t have to worry about the ridicule.” The Colts felt that first-hand after their loss to Minnesota. Matt Ryan in particular took centre stage, as he may well have had thoughts of déjà vu. He was the playmaker for the Atlanta Falcons in the 2018 Super Bowl when the Patriots made the legendary comeback from a 3:28 deficit.
The aftermath of the historic comeback
36 points in a game is unprecedented for the Colts this season, and it’s well above the average for Indianapolis. On average, they only put 17.5 points on the scoreboard, leaving only three teams behind them in this statistic. But the truth is that everything went in the Colts’ favour in the first half against the Vikings, as the team scored a special-teams touchdown and a defensive touchdown.
Minnesota’s disaster cost quarterback Matt Ryan the starting job, so Nick Foles will get his first start for the Colts. He is a similar playmaker to Ryan and so the face of the offence is not expected to change much. Indianapolis has only recorded 14 passing touchdowns, which is one of the worst totals in the league. After another demotion, Ryan’s future with the Colts is a big question mark.
The offense will also be missing an important component starting next game day: running back Jonathan Taylor had to be placed on the “Injured Reserve List”, which means his season is over. That, too, does not necessarily make the prospects against in-form Chargers any rosier.
On the defensive side, they are averaging 24.1 counter points, which is also below average league-wide. In the last two games, they allowed 54 and 39 points against strong offenses. Will the strong visitors’ offence manage to break the 30-point mark in the upcoming match? Between the Colts and Chargers, this prediction definitely appeals.
Key Players:
QB: Nick Foles
RB: Zack Moss
WR: Michael Pittman Jr.
TE: Mo Alie-Cox
K: Chase McLaughlin
Los Angeles Chargers – stats & current form
Place two in the AFC West with eight wins and six losses currently means seventh in the conference and a playoff spot for the Los Angeles Chargers. That was the minimum goal before the season for the franchise, which probably even flirted with the division title. But there was no match for the Chiefs, who have three more wins to their name. Brandon Staley’s team lost both games against Kansas City. The outlook for the postseason is very good, though, with an 80 percent chance.
Offensive versatility
In recent weeks, the Californians’ form curve has shown a clear upward trend, winning three of their last four games. In this period they also beat the direct AFC opponents Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans in the fight for the playoffs. Last game day, quarterback Justin Herbert again recorded over 300 passing yards, but failed to score a passing touchdown – for the second time this season. In total, he has 21 touchdown passes on his CV this season and in the Colts vs. Chargers duel, it is tempting to bet that he will manage at least two more.
The two touchdowns against the good Titans defence came from the runnigbacks Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelly. The former has already recorded 14 successful end zone visits and is thus by far the most dangerous Chargers player – in this respect.
It is important for LA that the team gets “healthier”. Some injured players returned in the last weeks, so the franchise from the City of Angels could sometimes field the three best wide receivers at the same time. When this was the case, the explosiveness of the offense increased exponentially. Additionally, there is a good chance that the defence will get another boost with the return of Joey Bosa, which is possible until the playoffs.
Speaking of the defence, it wasn’t overrun by Titans star Derrick Henry last week, as was expected in advance. In addition, the passing defence has performed well so far, although safety Derwin James Jr. is still questionable for the upcoming game. Still, between the Colts and Chargers, our prediction is that they can definitely take the home team’s offense to the cleaners.
Key Players:
QB: Justin Herbert
RB: Austin Ekeler
WR: Mike Williams
TE: Gerald Everett
K: Dustin Hopkins
Indianapolis Colts – Los Angeles Chargers Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
In the 2019 duel, the quarterbacks on both sides were still named Jacoby Brissett and Philip Rivers. At that time, Los Angeles celebrated its 19th victory against Indianapolis. Eleven victories have been recorded so far by the Colts vs. Chargers. The odds that they can celebrate their twelfth victory in the upcoming match are 2.65 at best.
Incidentally, this is the first home game that the Indianapolis Colts have played against the Los Angeles Chargers. In 2016, the last time they played at Lucas Oil Stadium, the visitors were still at home in San Diego.
Indianapolis Colts – Los Angeles Chargers Tip
We firmly believe that the visitors will continue to march straight towards the playoffs. However, the choice in the matchup falls on a safe variant, for which we again put plenty of units. It can be assumed that the visitors will score at least three touchdowns in the duel with Indianapolis and the bookmaker betano offers attractive odds of 1.70 for this bet between the Colts and Chargers.
Our value recommendation for this match is that Los Angeles wins by at least four points. The market also offers very good odds for this.
Three touchdowns, which we believe the visitors will score, already imply that they will score at least 21 points. For this reason, the possibility of Los Angeles scoring at least 25 to 30 points in the duel should also be taken into account. The recent performances of the Colts defence further fuel this assessment.
