The hosts on their way to a second victory
The circle of favourites at the 2022 World Water Polo Championships in Hungary is broad. They are the usual suspects who will be vying for the medals. The teams from the Balkans are always strong. Then there are Spain, Italy and Greece. Also high on the list is the team from Hungary, which is to be rated very highly in front of its own audience.
After the first matchday in Group A, the Magyars are only in second place, but they have already had the toughest opponent in the pool, Montenegro, and have picked up the first two points. The team from Georgia is currently in the lead, ahead of the hosts thanks to the more goals they have scored.
Montenegro and Brazil have no points yet. On Thursday, the Hungarians will take on the Brazilians and there are no two opinions as to who will leave the pool at the National Swimming Stadium, the Wembley of water polo, as the winner. In the duel between Hungary and Brazil, there is no way around a prediction of a victory for the home side.
If the South Americans are already losing to Georgia by a considerable margin, then the chances of anything worthwhile against the hosts should be close to zero.
Hungary – Statistics & current form
At the swimming competitions in Budapest, it is already clear how meticulously the Hungarians have prepared for these title matches. It is no different in water polo. Tamas Marcz’s team will do everything they can to bring the World Championship crown home once again after 2013. From our point of view, the title will only go through the hosts this year.
Wins against top teams
The Hungarians have already performed well in the World League this year. Currently, they have only three wins in a row, but these came against Greece, Croatia and Montenegro. Six wins in seven games against consistently strong competition is something to be proud of. For this reason, we can neglect the odds on a successful match for the South Americans in the duel between Hungary and Brazil.
Already in the opening match against Montenegro, Tamas Marcz’s team showed a good performance. In the first quarter, it was still balanced at 3:3. But as the game progressed, the Hungarians pulled further and further away. In the end, the hosts were not really threatened with a 12:8 victory.
Compared to other teams, the Hungarians have the advantage that this World Cup is regarded as the highlight of the year. Therefore, the top stars Adam Nagy and Denes Varga, among others, are in the line-up. But the most successful thrower in the opening match was Gergö Zalanki from the Italian top club Pro Recco, who scored four times.
Predicted line-up of Hungary:
Levai, Vogel – Angyal, Manhercz, Pohl, Vamos, Mezei, Zalanki, Burian, Nagy, Varga, Jansik, Harai – Coach: Marcz
Brazil – Statistics & current form
Brazil is not a traditional country in water polo. However, much like Japan recently, the South Americans have been pushing development in order to be competitive at the 2016 Rio Olympics. However, the hype surrounding the Brazilian team has already died down noticeably in the meantime, with the big successes only being celebrated at regional level in any case.
The upswing is over
2016 the Brazilians upgraded the squad with players from Serbia, Spain or Croatia and the coach was also Croatian. In the meantime, there is nothing left of this glamour. Today, the Brazilians have once again taken the leading role in their national team. In the last seven games, the Selecao conceded five defeats.
Victories only came against Canada and Argentina, although not a single opponent from the extended world elite was among the opponents. In this condition, there will be nothing to harvest on Thursday either and we are going out on a limb and predicting before the duel between Hungary and Brazil that the Magyars will win by a double-digit margin.
In the opening game, the Brazilians already conceded their first defeat against Georgia, so that qualification for the play-offs will hardly be achievable. The first quarter was still balanced, but then the Georgians played to their strengths. In the end, the South Americans lost 10:14, with Roberto Freitas, in particular, frequently making his presence felt with four goals.
Predicted line-up of Brazil:
Barella, Mendes – Cabral, Lacerda, Coutinho, Freitas, Pedroso, Real, de Paula, Chiappini, Vizacre, Guimaraes, Silva – Coach: Diaz
Hungary – Brazil Direct comparison / H2H Ranking
Since 2013, the selection teams from Brazil and Hungary have only crossed paths four times. This fact alone shows that there is not much of a water polo tradition among the South Americans. It is no surprise that the Magyars have won all four of these matches by at least a four-goal margin.
The last two encounters were at the Olympic Games in Rio. The Hungarians won 10:6 in the preliminary round and then met again in the round for places 5-8. At that time, however, the Hungarians were not as strong as they are at the current home World Cup and the Brazilians were better rated then than they are now.
Hungary – Brazil tip
It will not be the Hungarians’ ambition to simply advance to the next round. With a win, however, the Magyars are sure to be in the playoffs. What is clear, however, is that the hosts will be aiming for three wins in the preliminary round in order to advance directly to the quarter-finals and allow themselves two more days of rest. After the performances shown so far, there will be a clear home victory on Thursday.
Hungary put in a solid performance against Montenegro and have won six of their last seven internationals in general, all against very strong opposition.
We expect that the Hungarians will not hold back in this match either, because the frenetic crowd wants to see a strong match over four quarters. Therefore, we think that the high quality of the Magyars will be noticeable throughout the match. We have decided to play the betting odds on a handicap win (-10.5) for the hosts in the Hungary vs Brazil match.
