Will the Texans stop the Chargers fairytale?
Let the games begin – and by games we mean the NFL playoffs. Because they start on Saturday evening at 10:30 p.m. with our Texans vs. Chargers tip. The division winners of the AFC South from Houston are actually considered the underdogs.
This is partly because they have a weaker record of 10-7 than the Chargers at 11-6, but also because of their poor current form. Houston has only won one of its last three games of the season. LA, on the other hand, is coming into the playoffs with three wins in a row.
However, we don’t see any clear favorites here, because at least the Texans have home field advantage and a bit more playoff experience on their side. In the preseason, the Texans were able to beat the Browns 45-14 at home in the Wild Card round.
So our prediction for the Texans vs. Chargers is an open game that won’t see too many points. It would not surprise us if the Texans were able to convert their home field advantage into a win here, despite their modest recent form.
Kickoff of this first game of the NFL playoffs is on Saturday evening at 22:30 in Houston. The game can be watched live on RTL and DAZN – like all playoff games in the following days.
Houston Texans – Statistics & current form
Imagine, it’s the playoffs – and no one believes in you. This is currently the case with the Houston Texans, who are one of the weakest teams in the post-season. Nevertheless, due to their division victory, they are still in 4th place.
This in turn opens up the chance to even play one round further at home. Their opponents from Los Angeles are good, but they are not considered to be among the crème de la crème of the AFC either. Can they take advantage of this opportunity?
Rushing game as Achilles’ heel
To do that, they’ll need a good rushing game and a good defense against the run. Their own rushing game was one of their great strengths at the beginning of the season, but it deteriorated more and more as the season went on – as did running back Joe Mixon.
He sat out last Sunday and his backup Dameon Pierce promptly impressed with 176 rushing yards. We are excited to see how much playing time Pierce will get in the playoffs now, but we would definitely rely on this one-two punch if we were the Texans.
Their defense against the run is ranked 11th in the league, which is not bad. Since the Chargers DNA involves a lot of running, this could play into Houston’s hands.
Tips on Texans with strong odds
Currently, the Chargers are favorites in this matchup by -3.0, which makes the odds for Houston very interesting for Texans vs. Chargers. Even handicap tips on the Texans +3.0 are still playable, whereby we even recommend outright win bets on Houston.
A combination of Houston + under points is also conceivable at terrific odds in this matchup, as both teams are among the top 10 defenses on average and we do not expect a points festival.
Key Players:
- QB: C. J. Stroud
- RB: Joe Mixon
- WR: Nico Collins
- TE: Dalton Schultz
- K: Ka’imi Fairbairn
Los Angeles Chargers – Statistics & current form
The Chargers did their homework towards the end of the season. With wins against the Broncos, the Patriots and the Raiders, they now come into the post-season with a good amount of confidence. One of their big advantages in this matchup.
However, they have very little playoff experience. Only Joey Bosa (3 games/2 losses), J.K. Dobbins (3 games/2 losses) and Khalil Mack (4 games/4 losses) have a little post-season experience from their top players. And as you can see from the records, these experiences have rarely been positive.
All the pressure on Justin Herbert
Their franchise quarterback Justin Herbert has only played one playoff game in his career and since he lost that game, he has no positive playoff experience on his resume either. This is one of the points that makes us most likely to doubt their favorite status.
Now, just before the post season, they have added Ezekiel Elliott to their practice squad. If Gus Edwards is unable to play, Elliott will likely act as backup rusher. Although Elliott has already won two playoff games in his career, he was often only a second-line winner with the Cowboys.
Tips for the second quarter are recommended
In Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers, a tip on the guests is to be avoided. However, there is another nice option that reveals a look at the statistics. In playoff games, points are scored even more frequently in the second quarter than they already are during the season.
In the 2024 Wild Card round, the second quarter was the one with the most points in all six games. This is because drives continue into this quarter and, like towards the end, there is also a two-minute warning.
2-minute drills often lead to points. This leads us to take the odds for the 2nd quarter as the highest-scoring quarter in Houston against LA – in our case even as the main tip at odds of up to 2.87.
Key Players:
- QB: Justin Herbert
- RB: J.K. Dobbins
- WR: Ladd McConkey
- TE: Hayden Hurst
- K: Cameron Dicker
Houston Texans – Los Angeles Chargers Head-to-head / H2H record
The last time these two teams faced off, the Chargers won 34-24 in 2022. At that time, however, the Texans were still in the dark without C.J. Stroud. He was only drafted afterwards, so this is the first time the two quarterbacks, Stroud and Herbert, will face each other.
The statistics in this matchup favor the Texans a bit, both offensively and defensively. They also have a slight edge over the Texans in turnovers, with +12 to the Texans’ +10. But as already mentioned, this is somewhat offset by their lack of experience.
So it’s difficult to predict the winner for Houston against LA, which has led us to tips on the second quarter as the one with the most points. This also does not contradict our prediction of a low-scoring game, as we expect two very cautious teams, especially towards the end.
Houston Texans – Los Angeles Chargers Tip
It’s more or less a 50-50 duel. For this reason alone, tips on Houston have some value. Nevertheless, two other tips stand out for us: betting on under-points and on the second quarter.
In our prediction for the Texans vs Chargers game, a bet on the 2nd quarter as the one with the most points has become our number 1 bet. This is because, especially in the first playoff round, a lot of energy is spent on getting off to a good start in the post-season, which culminates in many points in the second quarter.
As a player bet, we have a look at the running backs in this matchup. Here, we prefer a tip on a touchdown from J.K. Dobbins, who scored a total of nine touchdowns in just 13 games. The best relative payout is available here at bet-at-home, which, like other providers, can already be operated via smartphone.
