Do the Packers remain unbeaten at home?
Will the Packers finally deal the Browns a death blow to their playoff hopes on Saturday? After their narrow loss to the Raiders on Monday, Cleveland sits in fourth and last place in the AFC North – but still just one win behind the division’s top teams.
No other division is more competitive this season. The Packers don’t have that problem at all, having already clinched their NFC North spot on the final day of play, making the playoffs a certainty.
But that doesn’t mean that there is nothing left for the Packers, after all they are still in a tough fight for the No.1 seed in the NFC. Especially in these times of constant Covid failures, a bye week at the start of the playoffs would of course be worth its weight in gold.
The Packers don’t want to be deprived of this advantage, which is why we see them clearly ahead on Saturday. For Green Bay vs. Cleveland, our forecast is therefore also a clear success for the Packers, which should be favoured by all the absences on the part of the Browns.
Kickoff of Saturday’s NFL Match Week 16 game is at 10:30pm on Saturday night in Green Bay. It can be watched live on DAZN.
Green Bay Packers – Statistics & current form
The Packers have won the NFC North for the third time in a row and that already three game days before the end of the regular season. On the one hand, that speaks against their opponents, but on the other hand, it also speaks for the strength of the Packers, who now also hold the top seed in the NFC.
Who would have thought that after the first game of the season and the 3:38 defeat against the Saints? Those Saints, by the way, are currently 7-7, four wins worse. Maybe that was just the spark Green Bay needed too.
Rodgers again MVP candidate?
In the meantime, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has also returned to the MVP list, despite losing ground almost hopelessly due to his vaccination debate in the middle of the season. But his performances have brought him back.
Currently, there is no quarterback who delivers more consistently. In the last four games Rodgers has thrown 13 touchdowns and in the last two games he has a completion percentage of over 74%! That is outstanding.
In three of his last four games he has a QB rating of over 132 points, twice even over 140. These are by far the best values in the league and should he retain the top seed with the Packers, there is hardly any way around Rodgers as MVP.
Special Teams as a weakness
In addition to their defense, which has allowed an average of nearly 30 points in their last four games, their special teams can be called a major weak spot. Dropped punt returns, flags on punts or other special teams plays – league-wide, the Packers are considered to have one of the three weakest special teams.
This could be their undoing again on Saturday, but only temporarily. To take the win away from them, not even that is enough. That’s why for Packers vs. Browns, Green Bay -7 odds are still a pretty safe looking bet.
Key Players:
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Aaron Jones
WR: Davante Adams
TE: Mercedes Lewis
K: Mason Crosby
Cleveland Browns – stats & current form
Rating the Browns here and predicting anything is not that easy. Against the Raiders on Monday they were missing a good 20 players due to Covid and yet they were ahead until a few seconds before the end.
The fact that it wasn’t enough for a win can almost be described as tragic and diminished their playoff hopes enormously. Now they have to win at least two more against the Packers, Steelers and Bengals – an almost hopeless undertaking.
Who will make it back into the line-up by Saturday?
How hopeless it really becomes depends a little on their absentees. Currently, both top quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum, top receiver Landry, tight end Cooper and defensive end Clowney remain on the list – just to name the most important.
Who of them will be back by Saturday will probably be decided on game day at the earliest – not necessarily the best preparation, especially when the players are then also fresh out of sick isolation.
Little break – lots of worries
Another disadvantage they have over Green Bay is their day less break. More breakdowns and less rest for the players left: not a combination that sounds winnable.
So for all their statistical closeness to Green Bay (defensively, both teams allow almost the same amount of points: 21.6 to 21.8), we also see them as clear underdogs. For Packers vs Browns, the odds on Green Bay are therefore much better to bet, even with a clear handicap.
Key Players:
QB: Nick Mullens
RB: Nick Chubb
WR: Donovan Peoples-Jones
TE: David Njoku
K: Chase McLaughlin
Green Bay Packers – Cleveland Browns Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
In addition to the current form, which clearly favours Green Bay, the past direct duels also give the Browns little hope. Cleveland has won only one of the last five meetings and that was 16 years ago.
The Packers’ winning margin in their victories since 2001 has averaged 18.7 points – a very high figure. On Saturday, too, the Browns could be in for another drubbing.
So for Green Bay vs. Cleveland the betting odds are clearly to take advantage of the tip “win Packers”. Especially since there are still very acceptable odds of up to 1.90 for a handicap of only -7.0.
Green Bay Packers – Cleveland Browns Tip
The Browns have been hit hard by their absences and even if some of their top players will return, they might not be back to 100% yet. In that case, the saying about shot dogs doesn’t count anymore.
Moreover, the Packers are playing at home, where they have a spotless record so far (6-0). Even a close game would therefore be a surprise, which is why a Green Bay -7 bet is our clear recommendation for Packers vs Browns.
Alternatively, touchdown bets on Davante Adams are also recommended. He has found the end zone five times in the last four games and should be able to do so again against this shaken Browns defence.
